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The impact of variable renewable energy penetration on wholesale electricity prices in Japan

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  • Sakaguchi, Makishi
  • Fujii, Hidemichi

Abstract

The merit order effect (MOE), which renewable energy sources can decrease wholesale electricity prices, plays an important role in establishing low-carbon societies. After the liberalization of the electricity market, the trade volume of the Japan Electric Power Exchange (JEPX) day-ahead spot market drastically increased between 2016 and 2019; however, price spikes still occur often. Ordinary least squares and quantile regression analyses were applied in this study to investigate how wind and solar photovoltaics (PV) energy generation affect the JEPX day-ahead spot price by time, price range, and area, and we concluded that the MOE of wind increased between 2016 and 2019 while that of PV decreased during this time. In regard to the high price ranges, although wind generation is not significant in terms of reducing price spikes, PV had this effect in 2016 and 2017 but not during the other years covered. The study area was divided into four regions, and each area followed trends that were different from those of the national analysis. Overall, the key finding of our study is that wind power has more potential to reduce electricity prices than PV.

Suggested Citation

  • Sakaguchi, Makishi & Fujii, Hidemichi, 2021. "The impact of variable renewable energy penetration on wholesale electricity prices in Japan," MPRA Paper 110554, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    • Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:110554
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Paige Weber & Matt Woerman, 2022. "Intermittency or Uncertainty? Impacts of Renewable Energy in Electricity Markets," CESifo Working Paper Series 9902, CESifo.
    2. Nakamoto, Yuya & Eguchi, Shogo, 2024. "How do seasonal and technical factors affect generation efficiency of photovoltaic power plants?," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 199(C).
    3. Atherton, John & Hofmeister, Markus & Mosbach, Sebastian & Akroyd, Jethro & Farazi, Feroz & Kraft, Markus, 2023. "British imbalance market paradox: Variable renewable energy penetration in energy markets," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 185(C).
    4. Nakamoto, Yuya & Eguchi, Shogo & Takayabu, Hirotaka, 2024. "Efficiency and benchmarks for photovoltaic power generation amid uncertain conditions," Socio-Economic Planning Sciences, Elsevier, vol. 94(C).
    5. Rassi, Samin & Kanamura, Takashi, 2023. "Electricity price spike formation and LNG prices effect under gross bidding scheme in JEPX," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 177(C).

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    merit order effect; wholesale electricity market; renewable energy;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • Q42 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Energy - - - Alternative Energy Sources
    • Q43 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Energy - - - Energy and the Macroeconomy
    • Q54 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Environmental Economics - - - Climate; Natural Disasters and their Management; Global Warming

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