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Electricity price spike formation and LNG prices effect under gross bidding scheme in JEPX

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  • Rassi, Samin
  • Kanamura, Takashi

Abstract

This study empirically analyzes the price spikes that occurred in the Japan Electric Power Exchange (JEPX) market in January 2021 and draws energy policy implications from the results. The contributions of this research are as follows. First, we propose a novel structural model to capture electricity price spikes based on the buy and sell bid curves of the JEPX order book and incorporate the effect of LNG spot price fluctuations on the price of electricity. Second, the results of our empirical analysis show that the model can adequately capture the price spike in the JEPX market that occurred in January 2021. Third, the estimation of the model parameters shows that the natural gas spot price immediately shifts the price curve upward. As an important energy policy implication from the results, we propose that to manage the risk of electricity price spikes, the LNG effect on the market players’ bidding behavior, rather than the marginal cost of the supply curve, be considered; from this perspective, the LNG spot price, rather than the trend of the LNG price a few months earlier, must be monitored, and the institutional design of the JEPX market should take this into account.

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  • Rassi, Samin & Kanamura, Takashi, 2023. "Electricity price spike formation and LNG prices effect under gross bidding scheme in JEPX," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 177(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:enepol:v:177:y:2023:i:c:s0301421523001374
    DOI: 10.1016/j.enpol.2023.113552
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    Cited by:

    1. Krisztina Katona & Christina Sklibosios Nikitopoulos & Erik Schlögl, 2023. "A Hyperbolic Bid Stack Approach to Electricity Price Modelling," Risks, MDPI, vol. 11(8), pages 1-39, August.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Electricity spot price spike; Structural price model; JEPX; LNG spot price; Fundamental price model;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C51 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Model Construction and Estimation
    • Q41 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Energy - - - Demand and Supply; Prices
    • L98 - Industrial Organization - - Industry Studies: Transportation and Utilities - - - Government Policy

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