IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/pra/mprapa/107738.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

The Long Recession and the Economic Consequences of the Pandemic

Author

Listed:
  • Tsoulfidis, Lefteris
  • Tsaliki, Persefoni

Abstract

ABSTRACT In this article, we argue the rate of profit in combination with the movement of the real net profits determines the phase-change of the economy in its long cyclical pattern. Since WWII, the US and the world economy have experienced two such long cycles. The pandemic COVID-19 has deepened a recession that has been already underway since 2007. The growth rates in the first post-pandemic years are expected to be high; however, soon after, the economies will find themselves back to their old recessionary growth paths. The onset of a new long cycle requires the restoration of profitability, which can be sustained only through the introduction of ‘disruptive’ innovations backed by suitable institutional arrangements Long recession, secular stagnation, pandemic, long cycles, institutional changes, disruptive innovations

Suggested Citation

  • Tsoulfidis, Lefteris & Tsaliki, Persefoni, 2021. "The Long Recession and the Economic Consequences of the Pandemic," MPRA Paper 107738, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    • Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:107738
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/107738/1/MPRA_paper_107738.pdf
    File Function: original version
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Robert C. Feenstra & Robert Inklaar & Marcel P. Timmer, 2015. "The Next Generation of the Penn World Table," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 105(10), pages 3150-3182, October.
    2. Shaikh, Anwar, 2016. "Capitalism: Competition, Conflict, Crises," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, number 9780199390632, Decembrie.
    3. Carmen M. Reinhart & Kenneth S. Rogoff, 2009. "Varieties of Crises and Their Dates," Introductory Chapters, in: This Time Is Different: Eight Centuries of Financial Folly, Princeton University Press.
    4. Robert J. Gordon, 2015. "Secular Stagnation: A Supply-Side View," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 105(5), pages 54-59, May.
    5. Daron Acemoglu & Pascual Restrepo, 2017. "Secular Stagnation? The Effect of Aging on Economic Growth in the Age of Automation," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 107(5), pages 174-179, May.
    6. repec:rnp:ecopol:09111 is not listed on IDEAS
    7. Tsoulfidis, Lefteris & Papageorgiou, Aris, 2017. "The Recurrence of Long Cycles: Theories, Stylized Facts and Figures," MPRA Paper 82853, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 11 Nov 2017.
    8. John Komlos, 2021. "The Actual U.S. Unemployment Rate in 2019 Was Twice the Official Rate, and the Phillips Curve," Challenge, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 64(1), pages 51-74, January.
    9. Anwar Shaikh, 1992. "The Falling Rate of Profit as the Cause of Long Waves: Theory and Empirical Evidence," Palgrave Macmillan Books, in: Alfred Kleinknecht & Ernest Mandel & Immanuel Wallerstein (ed.), New Findings in Long-Wave Research, chapter 7, pages 174-202, Palgrave Macmillan.
    10. Lawrence H Summers, 2014. "U.S. Economic Prospects: Secular Stagnation, Hysteresis, and the Zero Lower Bound," Business Economics, Palgrave Macmillan;National Association for Business Economics, vol. 49(2), pages 65-73, April.
    11. Carlota Perez, 2002. "Technological Revolutions and Financial Capital," Books, Edward Elgar Publishing, number 2640.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Tsoulfidis, Lefteris & Tsaliki, Persefoni, 2021. "The Long Recession and Economic Consequences of the COVID-19 Pandemic," MPRA Paper 107737, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    2. Emerson, Patrick & Knabb, Shawn & Sirbu, Anca-Ioana, 2024. "Does the old-age dependency ratio place a drag on secular growth?," Economic Analysis and Policy, Elsevier, vol. 82(C), pages 1056-1070.
    3. Eric Kemp‐Benedict, 2020. "Convergence of actual, warranted, and natural growth rates in a Kaleckian–Harrodian‐classical model," Metroeconomica, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 71(4), pages 851-881, November.
    4. Mathilde Esposito, 2024. "Workforce Aging and Potential Output Growth," AMSE Working Papers 2425, Aix-Marseille School of Economics, France.
    5. Emerson, Patrick & Knabb, Shawn, 2020. "A demographic headwind: Will an aging society reduce the real interest rate and potential growth?," The Journal of the Economics of Ageing, Elsevier, vol. 17(C).
    6. Russell E. Triplett & Nilufer Ozdemir & Paul M. Mason, 2022. "Structural Change in the Investment Function," Journal of Economics and Finance, Springer;Academy of Economics and Finance, vol. 46(1), pages 220-236, January.
    7. Ciaffi, Giovanna & Deleidi, Matteo & Di Bucchianico, Stefano, 2024. "Stagnation despite ongoing innovation: Is R&D expenditure composition a missing link? An empirical analysis for the US (1948–2019)," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 206(C).
    8. Klaus Gründler & Niklas Potrafke, 2023. "Population Aging, Retirement, and Aggregate Productivity," CESifo Working Paper Series 10594, CESifo.
    9. Julius Probst, 2019. "Lawrence Summers Deserves a Nobel Prize for Reviving the Theory of Secular Stagnation," Econ Journal Watch, Econ Journal Watch, vol. 16(2), pages 342–373-3, September.
    10. Gries, Thomas & Fritz, Marlon & Wiechers, Lukas, 2023. "Growth with Mismatch - Theory and Evidence from TFP Estimates," VfS Annual Conference 2023 (Regensburg): Growth and the "sociale Frage" 277660, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association.
    11. José Alves & Sandro Morgado, 2024. "Secular stagnation: Is immigration part of the solution?," Journal of International Development, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 36(2), pages 1426-1449, March.
    12. Manuel David Cruz & Daniele Tavani, 2022. "Secular Stagnation: A Classical-Marxian View," Working Papers PKWP2229, Post Keynesian Economics Society (PKES).
    13. Eric Kemp-Benedict & Yun K. Kim, 2018. "Technological Change, Household Debt, and Distribution," Working Papers 2018-02, University of Massachusetts Boston, Economics Department.
    14. Mathilde Esposito, 2024. "Workforce Aging and Potential Output Growth," AMSE Working Papers 2425, Aix-Marseille School of Economics, France.
    15. Trunin, Pavel (Трунин, Павел) & Bozhechkova, Alexandra (Божечкова, Александра) & Petrova, Diana (Петрова, Диана) & Chaikina, Anastasiia (Чайкина, Анастасия) & Nikanorov, Ivan (Никаноров, Иван), 2018. "Analysis of Approaches to Studying the Problem of Long-Term Stagnation in Modern Economies [Анализ Подходов К Изучению Проблемы Долговременной Стагнации В Современных Экономиках]," Working Papers 031810, Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration.
    16. Andrea Borsato, 2021. "Does the Secular Stagnation hypothesis match with data? Evidence from USA," Working Papers of BETA 2021-11, Bureau d'Economie Théorique et Appliquée, UDS, Strasbourg.
    17. Daisuke Ikeda & Toan Phan & Timothy Sablik, 2020. "Asset Bubbles and Global Imbalances," Richmond Fed Economic Brief, Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond, vol. 20, pages 1-4, January.
    18. Manuel Funke & Moritz Schularick & Christoph Trebesch, 2023. "Populist Leaders and the Economy," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 113(12), pages 3249-3288, December.
    19. Murach, Michael & Wagner, Helmut & Kim, Jungsuk & Park, Donghyun, 2022. "Trajectories to high income: Comparing the growth dynamics in China, South Korea, and Japan with cointegrated VAR models," Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, Elsevier, vol. 62(C), pages 492-511.
    20. Ulrike Malmendier & Alexandra Steiny Wellsjo, 2024. "Rent or Buy? Inflation Experiences and Homeownership within and across Countries," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 79(3), pages 1977-2023, June.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Long recession; secular stagnation; pandemic; long cycles; institutional changes; disruptive innovations;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • B5 - Schools of Economic Thought and Methodology - - Current Heterodox Approaches
    • D33 - Microeconomics - - Distribution - - - Factor Income Distribution
    • E1 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - General Aggregative Models
    • N12 - Economic History - - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics; Industrial Structure; Growth; Fluctuations - - - U.S.; Canada: 1913-
    • O51 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economywide Country Studies - - - U.S.; Canada

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:107738. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Joachim Winter (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/vfmunde.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.