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The Recurrence of Long Cycles: Theories, Stylized Facts and Figures

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  • Tsoulfidis, Lefteris
  • Papageorgiou, Aris

Abstract

Basic innovations and their diffusion, the expansion or contraction of the level of economic activity and the volume of international trade, rising sovereign debts and their defaults, conflicts and the outbreak of wars, are some of the major phenomena appearing during the downswing or upswing phases of long cycles. In this article, we examine the extent to which these phenomena constitute stylized facts of the different phases of long cycles which recur quite regularly in the turbulent economic history of capitalism. The main argument of this paper is that the evolution of long cycles is a result of the long-run movement of profitability. During the downswing of a long cycle, falling profitability induces innovation investment and the associated with it 'creative destruction' of the capital stock that eventually set the stage for the upswing phase of a new long cycle.

Suggested Citation

  • Tsoulfidis, Lefteris & Papageorgiou, Aris, 2017. "The Recurrence of Long Cycles: Theories, Stylized Facts and Figures," MPRA Paper 82853, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 11 Nov 2017.
    • Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:82853
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Lefteris Tsoulfidis & Persefoni Tsaliki, 2014. "Unproductive labour, capital accumulation and profitability crisis in the Greek economy," International Review of Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 28(5), pages 562-585, September.
    2. Papageorgiou, Aris & Tsoulfidis, Lefteris, 2006. "Kondratiev, Marx and the long cycle," MPRA Paper 31355, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 10 May 2012.
    3. Shaikh, Anwar, 2016. "Capitalism: Competition, Conflict, Crises," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, number 9780199390632.
    4. Gerald Silverberg & Bart Verspagen, 2003. "Breaking the waves: a Poisson regression approach to Schumpeterian clustering of basic innovations," Cambridge Journal of Economics, Cambridge Political Economy Society, vol. 27(5), pages 671-693, September.
    5. Muzhao Jin & Youwei Li & Jianxin Wang & Yung Chiang Yang, 2018. "Price discovery in the Chinese gold market," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 38(10), pages 1262-1281, October.
    6. Kleinknecht, Alfred, 1990. "Are There Schumpeterian Waves of Innovations?," Cambridge Journal of Economics, Cambridge Political Economy Society, vol. 14(1), pages 81-92, March.
    7. Lefteris Tsoulfidis, 2017. "Growth Accounting of the Value Composition of Capital and the Rate of Profit in the U.S. Economy: A Note Stimulated by Zarembka’s Findings," Review of Radical Political Economics, Union for Radical Political Economics, vol. 49(2), pages 303-312, June.
    8. Anwar Shaikh, 1992. "The Falling Rate of Profit as the Cause of Long Waves: Theory and Empirical Evidence," Palgrave Macmillan Books, in: Alfred Kleinknecht & Ernest Mandel & Immanuel Wallerstein (ed.), New Findings in Long-Wave Research, chapter 7, pages 174-202, Palgrave Macmillan.
    9. Roy W. Jastram, 2009. "The Golden Constant," Books, Edward Elgar Publishing, number 12733.
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    Cited by:

    1. Tsoulfidis, Lefteris & Tsaliki, Persefoni, 2021. "The Long Recession and Economic Consequences of the COVID-19 Pandemic," MPRA Paper 107737, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    2. Tsoulfidis, Lefteris & Tsaliki, Persefoni, 2021. "The Long Recession and the Economic Consequences of the Pandemic," MPRA Paper 107738, University Library of Munich, Germany.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Long Cycles Innovations Profit rate Logistic regression Stagnation Kondratiev Schumpeter;

    JEL classification:

    • B14 - Schools of Economic Thought and Methodology - - History of Economic Thought through 1925 - - - Socialist; Marxist
    • B25 - Schools of Economic Thought and Methodology - - History of Economic Thought since 1925 - - - Historical; Institutional; Evolutionary; Austrian; Stockholm School
    • E11 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - General Aggregative Models - - - Marxian; Sraffian; Kaleckian
    • E3 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles
    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • N0 - Economic History - - General
    • N1 - Economic History - - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics; Industrial Structure; Growth; Fluctuations
    • N10 - Economic History - - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics; Industrial Structure; Growth; Fluctuations - - - General, International, or Comparative
    • O3 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Innovation; Research and Development; Technological Change; Intellectual Property Rights
    • O31 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Innovation; Research and Development; Technological Change; Intellectual Property Rights - - - Innovation and Invention: Processes and Incentives

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