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Kondratiev, Marx and the long cycle


  • Papageorgiou, Aris
  • Tsoulfidis, Lefteris


Abstract This paper begins with a critical presentation of Kondratiev’s (1926) seminal paper on the question of the existence as well as his theoretical explanation of long cyclical fluctuations of the level of economic activity. Furthermore we argue that a coherent explanation of long-run fluctuations can be based upon Marx’s argument in Capital III, whereby the falling long-run tendency of the rate of profit leads to a stagnant mass of net profits, which are associated with the onset of economic crisis. The paper concludes with a discussion of the similarities or differences and of the relative merits or weaknesses of Kondratiev’s and Marx’s views with respect to their visions of the long term evolution of the capitalist system.

Suggested Citation

  • Papageorgiou, Aris & Tsoulfidis, Lefteris, 2006. "Kondratiev, Marx and the long cycle," MPRA Paper 31355, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 10 May 2012.
  • Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:31355

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    References listed on IDEAS

    1. Shaikh, Anwar, 1978. "Political Economy and Capitalism: Notes on Dobb's Theory of Crisis," Cambridge Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 2(2), pages 233-251, June.
    2. Tsoulfidis, Lefteris, 2005. "Falling Rate of Profit and Overaccumulation in Marx and Keynes," MPRA Paper 35980, University Library of Munich, Germany.
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    Cited by:

    1. Tsoulfidis, Lefteris, 2013. "The ‘new golden age of accumulation’, the new depression and the greek economy," MPRA Paper 60577, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    2. Tsoulfidis, Lefter, 2014. "Κρίση, Σύγχρονος Καπιταλισμός Και Ταξικές Ανακατατάξεις
      [Economic Crisis, Modern Capitalism and Class Realliances]
      ," MPRA Paper 62692, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 2015.
    3. Stravelakis, Nikos, 2012. "Why recession and depression policies differ," MPRA Paper 39128, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    4. Mariolis, Theodore, 2014. "Η θεωρία οικονομικών κρίσεων του Karl Marx
      [Karl Marx’s theory of economic crises]
      ," MPRA Paper 56831, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    5. Tsoulfidis, Lefteris & Papageorgiou, Aris, 2017. "The Recurrence of Long Cycles: Theories, Stylized Facts and Figures," MPRA Paper 82853, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 11 Nov 2017.

    More about this item


    Long cycles; falling rate of profit; economic crisis;

    JEL classification:

    • B10 - Schools of Economic Thought and Methodology - - History of Economic Thought through 1925 - - - General
    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • B14 - Schools of Economic Thought and Methodology - - History of Economic Thought through 1925 - - - Socialist; Marxist
    • B24 - Schools of Economic Thought and Methodology - - History of Economic Thought since 1925 - - - Socialist; Marxist; Scraffian


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