IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/pra/mprapa/103644.html

Replacement Rates and Long-Term Outcomes after Job Displacement

Author

Listed:
  • Barnette, Justin

Abstract

The goal of this paper is to provide a bridge between the job displacement literature that uses long time panel data and similar work with a limited panel. This paper finds that a worker needs to replace 120% of their predisplacement income in the first two years after the event to avoid a long-term fall in income. This marginal replacement rate has variation with lower rates having much larger marginal impacts than higher replacement rates. The two results hold up to several robustness checks and generally align with a standard labor income process that has displacements as a fall in the permanent component of the process. These results provide proper context of how the first job after displacement affects the worker’s later income growth.

Suggested Citation

  • Barnette, Justin, 2020. "Replacement Rates and Long-Term Outcomes after Job Displacement," MPRA Paper 103644, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    • Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:103644
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/103644/1/MPRA_paper_103644.pdf
    File Function: original version
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/106891/1/MPRA_paper_106891.pdf
    File Function: revised version
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Christopher Huckfeldt, 2018. "Understanding the Scarring Effect of Recessions," 2018 Meeting Papers 1207, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    2. Walter Corson, 1995. "Trade Adjustment Assistance," Mathematica Policy Research Reports 3c2b45a78c434ff1acecc50da, Mathematica Policy Research.
    3. repec:mpr:mprres:1981 is not listed on IDEAS
    4. Philip Jung & Moritz Kuhn, 2019. "Correction to: Earnings Losses and Labor Mobility Over the Life Cycle," Journal of the European Economic Association, European Economic Association, vol. 17(3), pages 990-990.
    5. MaCurdy, Thomas E., 1982. "The use of time series processes to model the error structure of earnings in a longitudinal data analysis," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 18(1), pages 83-114, January.
    6. Henry S. Farber, 2017. "Employment, Hours, and Earnings Consequences of Job Loss: US Evidence from the Displaced Workers Survey," Journal of Labor Economics, University of Chicago Press, vol. 35(S1), pages 235-272.
    7. Jonathan Heathcote & Fabrizio Perri & Giovanni L. Violante, 2010. "Unequal We Stand: An Empirical Analysis of Economic Inequality in the United States: 1967-2006," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 13(1), pages 15-51, January.
    8. Barnette, Justin, 2020. "Wealth After Job Displacement," MPRA Paper 103642, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    9. A. Jolly Nicholas, 2015. "Geographic Mobility and the Costs of Job Loss," The B.E. Journal of Economic Analysis & Policy, De Gruyter, vol. 15(4), pages 1793-1829, October.
    10. Melvin Stephens, 2001. "The Long-Run Consumption Effects Of Earnings Shocks," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 83(1), pages 28-36, February.
    11. Stevens, Ann Huff, 1997. "Persistent Effects of Job Displacement: The Importance of Multiple Job Losses," Journal of Labor Economics, University of Chicago Press, vol. 15(1), pages 165-188, January.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Barnette, Justin, 2020. "Wealth After Job Displacement," MPRA Paper 103642, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    2. Bayer, Christian & Kuhn, Moritz, 2018. "Which Ladder to Climb? Decomposing Life Cycle Wage Dynamics," CEPR Discussion Papers 13158, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    3. Bayer, Christian & Kuhn, Moritz, 2018. "Which Ladder to Climb? Wages of Workers by Job, Plant, and Education," IZA Discussion Papers 11827, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    4. Pawel Krolikowski, 2018. "Choosing a Control Group for Displaced Workers," ILR Review, Cornell University, ILR School, vol. 71(5), pages 1232-1254, October.
    5. Barnette Justin & Odongo Kennedy & Reynolds C. Lockwood, 2021. "Changes Over Time in the Cost of Job Loss for Young Men and Women," The B.E. Journal of Economic Analysis & Policy, De Gruyter, vol. 21(1), pages 335-378, January.
    6. Jon Ellingsen & Caroline Espegren, 2022. "Lost in transition? Earnings losses of displaced petroleum workers," Working Papers No 06/2022, Centre for Applied Macro- and Petroleum economics (CAMP), BI Norwegian Business School.
    7. Benjamin S. Griffy, 2021. "Search And The Sources Of Life‐Cycle Inequality," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 62(4), pages 1321-1362, November.
    8. Manuel Sanchez & Felix Wellschmied, 2020. "Modeling Life-Cycle Earnings Risk with Positive and Negative Shocks," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 37, pages 103-126, July.
    9. Joachim Hubmer, 2018. "The Job Ladder and its Implications for Earnings Risk," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 29, pages 172-194, July.
    10. Xavier Gabaix & Jean‐Michel Lasry & Pierre‐Louis Lions & Benjamin Moll, 2016. "The Dynamics of Inequality," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 84, pages 2071-2111, November.
    11. Arpita Chatterjee & James Morley & Aarti Singh, 2021. "Estimating household consumption insurance," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 36(5), pages 628-635, August.
    12. Chadi, Adrian & Hetschko, Clemens, 2025. "Income or leisure? On the hidden benefits of (un)employment," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 171(C).
    13. Dmytro Hryshko, 2012. "Labor income profiles are not heterogeneous: Evidence from income growth rates," Quantitative Economics, Econometric Society, vol. 3(2), pages 177-209, July.
    14. Arpita Chatterjee & James Morley & Aarti Singh, 2017. "Full Information Estimation of Household Income Risk and Consumption Insurance," Discussion Papers 2017-07, School of Economics, The University of New South Wales.
    15. Philip Jung & Moritz Kuhn, 2019. "Earnings Losses and Labor Mobility Over the Life Cycle," Journal of the European Economic Association, European Economic Association, vol. 17(3), pages 678-724.
    16. Nao Sudo & Michio Suzuki & Tomoaki Yamada, 2012. "Inequalities in Japanese Economy during the Lost Decades," CIRJE F-Series CIRJE-F-856, CIRJE, Faculty of Economics, University of Tokyo.
    17. Greg Kaplan & Giovanni L. Violante, 2010. "How Much Consumption Insurance beyond Self-Insurance?," American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 2(4), pages 53-87, October.
    18. Charles Brown & James L. Medoff, 2003. "Firm Age and Wages," Journal of Labor Economics, University of Chicago Press, vol. 21(3), pages 677-698, July.
    19. Serdar Birinci, 2019. "Spousal Labor Supply Response to Job Displacement and Implications for Optimal Transfers," Working Papers 2019-020, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, revised Jan 2024.
    20. Bredemeier, Christian & Gravert, Jan & Juessen, Falko, 2021. "Accounting for Limited Commitment between Spouses When Estimating Labor-Supply Elasticities," IZA Discussion Papers 14226, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).

    More about this item

    Keywords

    ;
    ;
    ;

    JEL classification:

    • E24 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Employment; Unemployment; Wages; Intergenerational Income Distribution; Aggregate Human Capital; Aggregate Labor Productivity
    • J3 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Wages, Compensation, and Labor Costs
    • J31 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Wages, Compensation, and Labor Costs - - - Wage Level and Structure; Wage Differentials
    • J6 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Mobility, Unemployment, Vacancies, and Immigrant Workers
    • J63 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Mobility, Unemployment, Vacancies, and Immigrant Workers - - - Turnover; Vacancies; Layoffs

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:103644. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Joachim Winter (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/vfmunde.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.