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Trend, cycle, and non-linear trade-off in the Euro Area 1970-2001

Author

Listed:
  • Alvaro Aguiar

    () (CEMPRE, Faculdade de Economia da Universidade do Porto)

  • Manuel M. F. Martins

    () (CEMPRE, Faculdade de Economia da Universidade do Porto)

Abstract

This paper presents new tests and estimates of the Phillips trade-off in the Euro Area, carried out in a unobserved components model with possibly non-linear Phillips and Okun relations, using quarterly aggregate data for the period 1970:I-2001:II. A concept of forward-looking near-rational expectations is introduced in the model, improving on the contradiction between rational expectations and evidence of inflation inertia. The Phillips curve turns out to be linear and its trade-off statistically significant, while non-linearity shows up in the Okun relation. The trend-cycle decompositions capture the main features of the Euro Area recent macroeconomic record.

Suggested Citation

  • Alvaro Aguiar & Manuel M. F. Martins, 2003. "Trend, cycle, and non-linear trade-off in the Euro Area 1970-2001," FEP Working Papers 122, Universidade do Porto, Faculdade de Economia do Porto.
  • Handle: RePEc:por:fepwps:122
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Willi SEMMLER & Wenlang ZHANG, "undated". "Monetary Policy Rules with Nonlinear Philips Curve and Endogenous Nairu," EcoMod2004 330600128, EcoMod.
    2. Ana Paula Delgado & Isabel Maria Godinho, 2004. "The evolution of city size distribution in Portugal: 1864-2001," FEP Working Papers 151, Universidade do Porto, Faculdade de Economia do Porto.
    3. Sandra Silva, 2009. "On evolutionary technological change and economic growth: Lakatos as a starting point for appraisal," Journal of Evolutionary Economics, Springer, vol. 19(1), pages 111-135, February.
    4. Maria do Rosario Correia & Scott C. Linn & Andrew Marshall, 2004. "An Empirical Investigation of Debt Contract Design: The Determinants of the Choice of Debt Terms in Eurobond Issues," FEP Working Papers 148, Universidade do Porto, Faculdade de Economia do Porto.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Trend and cycle; Unobserved-components; Kalman filter; Phillips curve; Okun law; Near-rational expectations.;

    JEL classification:

    • E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation
    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models

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