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Estimating Fertility Responses to Expectations: Evidence From the 1958 British Cohort

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  • Emilia Del Bono

Abstract

The aim of this work is to explore the relationship between unemployment and fertility. The hypothesis we investigate is that unemployment affects fertility decisions by influencing individual`s expectations of future job opportunities and wage levels. A spell of unemployment may induce women to bring forward or delay the birth of their first child, depending on the relative strength of the income and substitution effects. Our results show that expectations of future wage levels and future job opportunities are relevant in explaining fertility patterns. In particular, higher expected wage levels encourage women to work more and delay childbirth. By contrast, more favourable expected job opportunities raise the hazard of a birth and, everything else equal, induce women to bring forward the event. In the latter case, a dominating income effect seems to be at work.

Suggested Citation

  • Emilia Del Bono, 2001. "Estimating Fertility Responses to Expectations: Evidence From the 1958 British Cohort," Economics Series Working Papers 80, University of Oxford, Department of Economics.
    • Handle: RePEc:oxf:wpaper:80
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    File URL: https://ora.ox.ac.uk/objects/uuid:e38a3f65-a8bf-40a7-9f13-861973173a79
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Namkee Ahn, 1995. "Measuring the Value of Children by Sex and Age Using a Dynamic Programming Model," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 62(3), pages 361-379.
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    Cited by:

    1. Gutiérrez-Domènech, Maria, 2002. "The impact of the labour market on the timing of marriage and births in Spain," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 20053, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    2. Kristiina Huttunen & Jenni Kellokumpu, 2016. "The Effect of Job Displacement on Couples' Fertility Decisions," Journal of Labor Economics, University of Chicago Press, vol. 34(2), pages 403-442.
    3. Maria Gutierrez-Domenech, 2002. "The Impact of the Labour Market on the Timing of Marriage and Births in Spain," CEP Discussion Papers dp0556, Centre for Economic Performance, LSE.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    fertility; unemployment duration analysis;

    JEL classification:

    • J13 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics - - - Fertility; Family Planning; Child Care; Children; Youth
    • J60 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Mobility, Unemployment, Vacancies, and Immigrant Workers - - - General
    • C41 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods: Special Topics - - - Duration Analysis; Optimal Timing Strategies

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