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An innovative approach to National Football League standings using optimal bonus points

Author

Listed:
  • Niven Winchester

    (Department of Economics, University of Otago)

  • Raymond T. Stefani

    (College of Engineering, California State University, Long Beach)

Abstract

Bonus points provide a simple way to improve the accuracy of league standings. We investigate the inclusion of bonuses in the National Football League (NFL) using a prediction model built on league points. Both touchdown-based and narrow-loss bonuses are shown to be significant. Our preferred system awards four points for a win, two for a tie, one point for scoring four or more touchdowns and one point for losing by seven or fewer points. Such a system would also make it easier for supporters to identify playoff contenders and place importance on otherwise meaningless end-of-game plays.

Suggested Citation

  • Niven Winchester & Raymond T. Stefani, 2009. "An innovative approach to National Football League standings using optimal bonus points," Working Papers 0905, University of Otago, Department of Economics, revised Jun 2009.
    • Handle: RePEc:otg:wpaper:0905
    as

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    File URL: http://www.otago.ac.nz/economics/research/otago0771020.pdf
    File Function: First version, 2009
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
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    5. Winchester Niven, 2008. "Shifting the 'Goal Posts': Optimizing the Allocation of Competition Points for Sporting Contests," Journal of Quantitative Analysis in Sports, De Gruyter, vol. 4(4), pages 1-17, October.
    6. Stefan Szymanski, 2010. "The Economic Design of Sporting Contests," Palgrave Macmillan Books, in: The Comparative Economics of Sport, chapter 1, pages 1-78, Palgrave Macmillan.
    7. David Romer, 2006. "Do Firms Maximize? Evidence from Professional Football," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 114(2), pages 340-365, April.
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    tournament design; sports predictions; NFL;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C61 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Mathematical Methods; Programming Models; Mathematical and Simulation Modeling - - - Optimization Techniques; Programming Models; Dynamic Analysis
    • L83 - Industrial Organization - - Industry Studies: Services - - - Sports; Gambling; Restaurants; Recreation; Tourism

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