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An innovative approach to National Football League standings using optimal bonus points

  • Niven Winchester

    ()

    (Department of Economics, University of Otago)

  • Raymond T. Stefani

    ()

    (College of Engineering, California State University, Long Beach)

Registered author(s):

    Bonus points provide a simple way to improve the accuracy of league standings. We investigate the inclusion of bonuses in the National Football League (NFL) using a prediction model built on league points. Both touchdown-based and narrow-loss bonuses are shown to be significant. Our preferred system awards four points for a win, two for a tie, one point for scoring four or more touchdowns and one point for losing by seven or fewer points. Such a system would also make it easier for supporters to identify playoff contenders and place importance on otherwise meaningless end-of-game plays.

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    File URL: http://www.business.otago.ac.nz/econ/research/discussionpapers/DP_0905.pdf
    File Function: First version, 2009
    Download Restriction: no

    Paper provided by University of Otago, Department of Economics in its series Working Papers with number 0905.

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    Length: 33 pages
    Date of creation: Jun 2009
    Date of revision: Jun 2009
    Handle: RePEc:otg:wpaper:0905
    Contact details of provider: Postal: P.O. Box 56, Dunedin
    Phone: +64 3 479 8725
    Fax: 64 3 479 8171
    Web page: http://www.business.otago.ac.nz/econ
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    1. David Romer, 2006. "Do Firms Maximize? Evidence from Professional Football," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 114(2), pages 340-365, April.
    2. Anurag N. Banerjee & Johan F.M. Swinnen & Alfons Weersink, 2006. "Skating on Thin Ice: Rule Changes and Team Strategies in the NHL," LICOS Discussion Papers 17506, LICOS - Centre for Institutions and Economic Performance, KU Leuven.
    3. Stefan Szymanski, 2003. "The Economic Design of Sporting Contests," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 41(4), pages 1137-1187, December.
    4. Zuber, Richard A & Gandar, John M & Bowers, Benny D, 1985. "Beating the Spread: Testing the Efficiency of the Gambling Market for National Football League Games," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 93(4), pages 800-806, August.
    5. Boulier, Bryan L. & Stekler, H. O., 2003. "Predicting the outcomes of National Football League games," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 19(2), pages 257-270.
    6. Raymond Stefani, 1997. "Survey of the major world sports rating systems," Journal of Applied Statistics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 24(6), pages 635-646.
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