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Cigarette Tax Revenues and Tobacco Control in Japan


  • Junmin Wan

    () (Osaka School of International Public Policy, Osaka University)


The hypotheses of non-addiction, myopia and rational addiction are tested using annual, quarterly and monthly data. Changes in the prices of Japanese cigarettes can be viewed as exogenous from the point of view of consumer behavior, because the Japanese government controls cigarette prices. The empirical results of this paper support the addiction hypothesis. The short-run and long-run price elasticities range from -0.338 to -0.421, and from -0.679 to -0.686, respectively; thus, increases in tax revenues in the long-run are likely to be smaller than those in the short-run. As a result, tax increases would be an effective means of curbing smoking and reducing its social cost. Furthermore, the debt compensation programs for the Japan Railway and the National Forestry will not go according to plan, unless revenues are increased in the future.

Suggested Citation

  • Junmin Wan, 2004. "Cigarette Tax Revenues and Tobacco Control in Japan," Discussion Papers in Economics and Business 04-11-Rev, Osaka University, Graduate School of Economics and Osaka School of International Public Policy (OSIPP), revised Feb 2006.
  • Handle: RePEc:osk:wpaper:0411r

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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Eiji Yamamura, 2016. "Effects of Female Labor Participation on Smoking Behavior in Japan: Selection Model Approach," Journal of Economics and Econometrics, Economics and Econometrics Society, vol. 59(3), pages 1-18.
    2. R. Duarte & J. Escario & J. Molina, 2014. "Are estimated peer effects on smoking robust? Evidence from adolescent students in Spain," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 46(3), pages 1167-1179, May.

    More about this item


    smoking; rational addiction; tax revenues;

    JEL classification:

    • D12 - Microeconomics - - Household Behavior - - - Consumer Economics: Empirical Analysis
    • E21 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Consumption; Saving; Wealth
    • H29 - Public Economics - - Taxation, Subsidies, and Revenue - - - Other

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