Consumption of Cigarettes, Nicotine, and Tar under Anti-smoking Policies: Japan as a Case Study

Japan has implemented a number of anti-smoking policies; these include information disclosures, taxation, and smoking bans. These measures have increased the information available to consumers, as well as tax rates on tobacco products. First, this paper shows, theoretically, the association between a lack of information and over-consumption of cigarettes, and then examines the effects of smoking policies using monthly data from 1951 to 1999. Long-term policies have had greater effects than short-term policies. Taxation has reduced consumption, but income differences have had no significant effect. Following health disclosures in 1964 and 1967, many consumers switched to filtered cigarettes and low-nicotine and low-tar products, respectively. The move to lower tar and nicotine products was further accelerated by the "harmful to health" label applied to cigarettes in 1972, although many smokers then raised the number of cigarettes they smoked to keep up their intake of nicotine. Other policies have decreased cigarette, nicotine, and tar consumption since 1972.