IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/osf/osfxxx/utpqn.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

The Contingent Electoral Impacts of Programmatic Policies: Evidence From Education Reforms in Tanzania

Author

Listed:
  • Opalo, Ken Ochieng'

    (Georgetown University)

  • Habyarimana, James
  • Schipper, Youdi

Abstract

A large literature documents the electoral benefits of clientelist and programmatic policies in low-income states. We extend this literature by showing the cyclical electoral responses to a large programmatic intervention to expand access to secondary education in Tanzania over multiple electoral periods. Using a difference-in-difference approach, we find that the incumbent party’s vote share increased by 2 percentage points in the election following the policy’s announcement as a campaign promise (2005), but decreased by -1.4 percentage points in the election following implementation (2010). We find no discernible electoral impact of the policy in 2015, two electoral cycles later. We attribute the electoral penalty in 2010 to how the secondary school expansion policy was implemented. Our findings shed light on the temporally-contingent electoral impacts of programmatic policies, and highlight the need for more research on how policy implementation structures public opinion and vote choice in low-income states.

Suggested Citation

  • Opalo, Ken Ochieng' & Habyarimana, James & Schipper, Youdi, 2021. "The Contingent Electoral Impacts of Programmatic Policies: Evidence From Education Reforms in Tanzania," OSF Preprints utpqn, Center for Open Science.
    • Handle: RePEc:osf:osfxxx:utpqn
    DOI: 10.31219/osf.io/utpqn
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://osf.io/download/602bea34b78d180079520759/
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.31219/osf.io/utpqn?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Schneider, Anne & Ingram, Helen, 1993. "Social Construction of Target Populations: Implications for Politics and Policy," American Political Science Review, Cambridge University Press, vol. 87(2), pages 334-347, June.
    2. Samuel Bazzi & Matthew Gudgeon, 2021. "The Political Boundaries of Ethnic Divisions," American Economic Journal: Applied Economics, American Economic Association, vol. 13(1), pages 235-266, January.
    3. Williams, Martin J., 2017. "The Political Economy of Unfinished Development Projects: Corruption, Clientelism, or Collective Choice?," American Political Science Review, Cambridge University Press, vol. 111(4), pages 705-723, November.
    4. Guido W. Imbens, 2015. "Matching Methods in Practice: Three Examples," Journal of Human Resources, University of Wisconsin Press, vol. 50(2), pages 373-419.
    5. Unknown, 2005. "Forward," 2005 Conference: Slovenia in the EU - Challenges for Agriculture, Food Science and Rural Affairs, November 10-11, 2005, Moravske Toplice, Slovenia 183804, Slovenian Association of Agricultural Economists (DAES).
    6. Richards, John & Vining, Aidan R., 2015. "Universal primary education in low-income countries: The contributing role of national governance," International Journal of Educational Development, Elsevier, vol. 40(C), pages 174-182.
    7. Leonard Wantchekon, 2003. "Clientelism and voting behavior: Evidence from a field experiment in benin," Natural Field Experiments 00339, The Field Experiments Website.
    8. Dionne, Kim Yi & Horowitz, Jeremy, 2016. "The Political Effects of Agricultural Subsidies in Africa: Evidence from Malawi," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 87(C), pages 215-226.
    9. Keith R. Weghorst & Staffan I. Lindberg, 2013. "What Drives the Swing Voter in Africa?," American Journal of Political Science, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 57(3), pages 717-734, July.
    10. Oeindrila Dube & Juan F. Vargas, 2013. "Commodity Price Shocks and Civil Conflict: Evidence from Colombia," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 80(4), pages 1384-1421.
    11. Lee, Kenneth & Brewer, Eric & Christiano, Carson & Meyo, Francis & Miguel, Edward & Podolsky, Matthew & Rosa, Javier & Wolfram, Catherine, 2016. "Electrification for “Under Grid” households in Rural Kenya," Development Engineering, Elsevier, vol. 1(C), pages 26-35.
    12. Kate Baldwin, 2013. "Why Vote with the Chief? Political Connections and Public Goods Provision in Zambia," American Journal of Political Science, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 57(4), pages 794-809, October.
    13. Jacobus Cilliers & Isaac M. Mbiti & Andrew Zeitlin, 2021. "Can Public Rankings Improve School Performance?: Evidence from a Nationwide Reform in Tanzania," Journal of Human Resources, University of Wisconsin Press, vol. 56(3), pages 655-685.
    14. David Stasavage, 2005. "Democracy and Education Spending in Africa," American Journal of Political Science, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 49(2), pages 343-358, April.
    15. Sáez, Lawrence & Sinha, Aseema, 2010. "Political Cycles, Political Institutions and Public Expenditure in India, 1980–2000," British Journal of Political Science, Cambridge University Press, vol. 40(1), pages 91-113, January.
    16. Easterly, William, 2009. "How the Millennium Development Goals are Unfair to Africa," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 37(1), pages 26-35, January.
    17. Blimpo,Moussa Pouguinimpo & Mensah,Justice Tei & Opalo,K. Ochieng? & Shi,Ruifan, 2018. "Electricity provision and tax mobilization in Africa," Policy Research Working Paper Series 8408, The World Bank.
    18. Tessa Bold & Deon Filmer & Gayle Martin & Ezequiel Molina & Brian Stacy & Christophe Rockmore & Jakob Svensson & Waly Wane, 2017. "Enrollment without Learning: Teacher Effort, Knowledge, and Skill in Primary Schools in Africa," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 31(4), pages 185-204, Fall.
    19. Soss, Joe, 1999. "Lessons of Welfare: Policy Design, Political Learning, and Political Action," American Political Science Review, Cambridge University Press, vol. 93(2), pages 363-380, June.
    20. Mani, Anandi & Mukand, Sharun, 2007. "Democracy, visibility and public good provision," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 83(2), pages 506-529, July.
    21. Kimuli Kasara & Pavithra Suryanarayan, 2015. "When Do the Rich Vote Less Than the Poor and Why? Explaining Turnout Inequality across the World," American Journal of Political Science, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 59(3), pages 613-627, July.
    22. Baskaran, Thushyanthan & Min, Brian & Uppal, Yogesh, 2015. "Election cycles and electricity provision: Evidence from a quasi-experiment with Indian special elections," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 126(C), pages 64-73.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Opalo, Ken Ochieng', 2022. "What is the Point of Schooling? Education Access and Policy in Tanzania Since 1961," OSF Preprints 3kbfa, Center for Open Science.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Kailthya, Subham & Kambhampati, Uma, 2022. "Political competition and public healthcare: Evidence from India," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 153(C).
    2. Benjamin Marx, 2018. "Elections as Incentives: Project Completion and Visibility in African Politics," SciencePo Working papers Main hal-03873801, HAL.
    3. Ochieng' Opalo, Ken, 2022. "Formalizing clientelism in Kenya: From Harambee to the Constituency Development Fund," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 152(C).
    4. Thushyanthan Baskaran & Sonia Bhalotra & Brian Min & Yogesh Uppal, 2018. "Women legislators and economic performance," WIDER Working Paper Series wp-2018-47, World Institute for Development Economic Research (UNU-WIDER).
    5. Stoop, Nik & Verpoorten, Marijke & van der Windt, Peter, 2019. "Artisanal or industrial conflict minerals? Evidence from Eastern Congo," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 122(C), pages 660-674.
    6. Briggs, Ryan C., 2021. "Power to which people? Explaining how electrification targets voters across party rotations in Ghana," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 141(C).
    7. Momi Dahan, 2023. "Social Construction And The Progressivity Of Local Tax Relief," Israel Economic Review, Bank of Israel, vol. 21(1), pages 1-33, March.
    8. Danielle Resnick, 2022. "Does Accountability Undermine Service Delivery? The Impact of Devolving Agriculture in Ghana," The European Journal of Development Research, Palgrave Macmillan;European Association of Development Research and Training Institutes (EADI), vol. 34(2), pages 1003-1029, April.
    9. Sam Hamer & Jeremy Seekings, 2017. "Social protection, electoral competition, and political branding in Malawi," WIDER Working Paper Series wp-2017-99, World Institute for Development Economic Research (UNU-WIDER).
    10. Asongu, Simplice & Odhiambo, Nicholas, 2020. "The role of governance in quality education in sub-Saharan Africa," MPRA Paper 107497, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    11. Samuel Adams & Kingsley S. Agomor, 2015. "Democratic politics and voting behaviour in Ghana," International Area Studies Review, Center for International Area Studies, Hankuk University of Foreign Studies, vol. 18(4), pages 365-381, December.
    12. Salomo Hirvonen & Jerome Schafer & Janne Tukiainen, 2022. "Policy Feedback and Civic Engagement: Evidence from the Finnish Basic Income Experiment," Discussion Papers 155, Aboa Centre for Economics.
    13. Matt Guardino & Suzanne Mettler, 2020. "Revealing the “Hidden welfare state†: How policy information influences public attitudes about tax expenditures," Journal of Behavioral Public Administration, Center for Experimental and Behavioral Public Administration, vol. 3(1).
    14. Ann-Sofie Isaksson & Dick Durevall, 2023. "Aid and institutions: Local effects of World Bank aid on perceived institutional quality in Africa," The Review of International Organizations, Springer, vol. 18(3), pages 523-551, July.
    15. Temple, Jonathan R.W., 2010. "Aid and Conditionality," Handbook of Development Economics, in: Dani Rodrik & Mark Rosenzweig (ed.), Handbook of Development Economics, edition 1, volume 5, chapter 0, pages 4415-4523, Elsevier.
    16. Brian Blankenship & Johannes Urpelainen, 2020. "Electric Shock: The 2012 India Blackout and Public Confidence in Politicians," Review of Policy Research, Policy Studies Organization, vol. 37(4), pages 464-490, July.
    17. Megan M. Reynolds & Ashley M. Fox & Yvette Young, 2021. "State‐level social safety nets for families coping with job loss," Poverty & Public Policy, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 13(2), pages 121-138, June.
    18. Samuel Bazzi & Robert A. Blair & Christopher Blattman & Oeindrila Dube & Matthew Gudgeon & Richard Peck, 2022. "The Promise and Pitfalls of Conflict Prediction: Evidence from Colombia and Indonesia," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 104(4), pages 764-779, October.
    19. Schaub, Max, 2021. "Acute Financial Hardship and Voter Turnout: Theory and Evidence from the Sequence of Bank Working Days," EconStor Open Access Articles and Book Chapters, ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics, vol. 115(4), pages 1258-1274.
    20. Jeremy Bowles & Benjamin Marx, 2022. "Turnover and Accountability in Africa's Parliaments," Working Papers hal-03873800, HAL.

    More about this item

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:osf:osfxxx:utpqn. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: OSF (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://osf.io/preprints/ .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.