IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/osf/osfxxx/ghfdb.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

The Nexus among External Debt and Economic Growth: Evidence from South Asia

Author

Listed:
  • Wanniarachchi, Sasindu Lakruwan

    (Central Bank of Sri Lanka)

Abstract

Over the past few years, external debt positions of South Asian economies have increased to alarming levels, indicating that those countries are more likely to be exposed to a debt crisis. Given the low domestic savings rate of these economies, they are increasingly compelled to invest significant resources in public infrastructure in order to maintain sustainable growth momentum. At the same time, those countries are invited to enrich by integrating with global synergies in the fields of maritime, trade, and financial initiatives. However, as the recent controversy over the debt-growth association is inconclusive to date; preserving the external debt exposures at an optimal level is incumbent. Consequently, this study reviews annual observations of independent cross-sections of South Asia during the period 1981-2017 in order to find the external debt-growth relationship. In addition, the quantitative research strategy used to measure the expected outcomes primarily consists of panel ARDL specifications. On aggregate levels of data, the results suggest that there is a statistically significant negative association between external debt and economic growth. Also, it has been observed that a significant nonlinear relationship exists in relation to lower-middle income countries.

Suggested Citation

  • Wanniarachchi, Sasindu Lakruwan, 2020. "The Nexus among External Debt and Economic Growth: Evidence from South Asia," OSF Preprints ghfdb, Center for Open Science.
    • Handle: RePEc:osf:osfxxx:ghfdb
    DOI: 10.31219/osf.io/ghfdb
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://osf.io/download/600e69db327cbe01b17b9dc4/
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.31219/osf.io/ghfdb?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Robert J Barro, 1999. "Determinants of Economic Growth: Implications of the Global Evidence for Chile," Latin American Journal of Economics-formerly Cuadernos de Economía, Instituto de Economía. Pontificia Universidad Católica de Chile., vol. 36(107), pages 443-478.
    2. Nijkamp, Peter & Poot, Jacques, 2004. "Meta-analysis of the effect of fiscal policies on long-run growth," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 20(1), pages 91-124, March.
    3. Catherine Pattillo & Hélène Poirson & Luca Antonio Ricci, 2011. "External Debt and Growth," Review of Economics and Institutions, Università di Perugia, vol. 2(3).
    4. Andrew M. Warner, 1992. "Did the Debt Crisis Cause the Investment Crisis?," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 107(4), pages 1161-1186.
    5. Robert C. Feenstra & Robert Inklaar & Marcel P. Timmer, 2015. "The Next Generation of the Penn World Table," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 105(10), pages 3150-3182, October.
    6. Pesaran, M. H. & Shin, Y. & Smith, R. P., 1997. "Pooled Estimation of Long-run Relationships in Dynamic Heterogeneous Panels," Cambridge Working Papers in Economics 9721, Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge.
    7. Balẳ Égert, 2015. "The 90% public debt threshold: the rise and fall of a stylized fact," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 47(34-35), pages 3756-3770, July.
    8. Athina Kanioura & Paul Turner, 2005. "Critical values for an F-test for cointegration in a multivariate model," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 37(3), pages 265-270.
    9. Jaejoon Woo & Manmohan S. Kumar, 2015. "Public Debt and Growth," Economica, London School of Economics and Political Science, vol. 82(328), pages 705-739, October.
    10. Carmen M. Reinhart & Kenneth S. Rogoff, 2010. "Growth in a Time of Debt," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 100(2), pages 573-578, May.
    11. William Easterly & Ross Levine, 1997. "Africa's Growth Tragedy: Policies and Ethnic Divisions," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 112(4), pages 1203-1250.
    12. Edward F. Blackburne III & Mark W. Frank, 2007. "Estimation of nonstationary heterogeneous panels," Stata Journal, StataCorp LP, vol. 7(2), pages 197-208, June.
    13. Smith, Adam, 1776. "An Inquiry into the Nature and Causes of the Wealth of Nations," History of Economic Thought Books, McMaster University Archive for the History of Economic Thought, number smith1776.
    14. Pesaran, M. Hashem & Smith, Ron, 1995. "Estimating long-run relationships from dynamic heterogeneous panels," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 68(1), pages 79-113, July.
    15. Andrea F. Presbitero, 2006. "The Debt-Growth Nexus: a Dynamic Panel Data Estimation," Rivista italiana degli economisti, Società editrice il Mulino, issue 3, pages 417-462.
    16. Xavier Sala-I-Martin & Gernot Doppelhofer & Ronald I. Miller, 2004. "Determinants of Long-Term Growth: A Bayesian Averaging of Classical Estimates (BACE) Approach," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 94(4), pages 813-835, September.
    17. Chen, Chuanglian & Yao, Shujie & Hu, Peiwei & Lin, Yuting, 2017. "Optimal government investment and public debt in an economic growth model," China Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 45(C), pages 257-278.
    18. John C. Anyanwu, 2014. "Factors Affecting Economic Growth in Africa: Are There any Lessons from China?," African Development Review, African Development Bank, vol. 26(3), pages 468-493, September.
    19. Navaratnam Ravinthirakumaran, 2014. "Applicability of Openness-led Growth Hypothesis in Sri Lanka," South Asia Economic Journal, Institute of Policy Studies of Sri Lanka, vol. 15(2), pages 241-263, September.
    20. Frederic S. Mishkin, 2011. "Over the Cliff: From the Subprime to the Global Financial Crisis," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 25(1), pages 49-70, Winter.
    21. Robert J. Barro, 2003. "Determinants of Economic Growth in a Panel of Countries," Annals of Economics and Finance, Society for AEF, vol. 4(2), pages 231-274, November.
    22. Tang, Chor Foon, 2008. "A re-examination of the relationship between electricity consumption and economic growth in Malaysia," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 36(8), pages 3067-3075, August.
    23. Cohen, Daniel, 1993. "Low Investment and Large LDC Debt in the 1980's," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 83(3), pages 437-449, June.
    24. M. Hashem Pesaran & Yongcheol Shin & Richard J. Smith, 2001. "Bounds testing approaches to the analysis of level relationships," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 16(3), pages 289-326.
    25. Benos, Nikos & Zotou, Stefania, 2014. "Education and Economic Growth: A Meta-Regression Analysis," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 64(C), pages 669-689.
    26. Rifaqat Ali & Usman Mustafa, 2012. "External Debt Accumulation and Its Impact on Economic Growth in Pakistan," The Pakistan Development Review, Pakistan Institute of Development Economics, vol. 51(4), pages 79-96.
    27. Syed Ali Raza & Muhammad Shahbaz & Sudharshan Reddy Paramati, 2017. "Dynamics of Military Expenditure and Income Inequality in Pakistan," Social Indicators Research: An International and Interdisciplinary Journal for Quality-of-Life Measurement, Springer, vol. 131(3), pages 1035-1055, April.
    28. Paresh Kumar Narayan & Russell Smyth, 2006. "What Determines Migration Flows From Low‐Income To High‐Income Countries? An Empirical Investigation Of Fiji–U.S. Migration 1972–2001," Contemporary Economic Policy, Western Economic Association International, vol. 24(2), pages 332-342, April.
    29. B. Bhaskara Rao & Gazi Hassan, 2011. "Determinants of the long-run growth rate of Bangladesh," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 18(7), pages 655-658.
    30. Debi Prasad Bal & Badri Narayan Rath, 2014. "Public debt and economic growth in India: A reassessment," Economic Analysis and Policy, Elsevier, vol. 44(3), pages 292-300.
    31. Nelson, Charles R. & Plosser, Charles I., 1982. "Trends and random walks in macroeconmic time series : Some evidence and implications," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 10(2), pages 139-162.
    32. Siddique, Abu & Selvanathan, E.A. & Selvanathan, Saroja, 2016. "The impact of external debt on growth: Evidence from highly indebted poor countries," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 38(5), pages 874-894.
    33. Lefteris Tsoulfidis, 2007. "Classical economists and public debt," International Review of Economics, Springer;Happiness Economics and Interpersonal Relations (HEIRS), vol. 54(1), pages 1-12, March.
    34. Safia Shabbir, 2013. "Does External Debt Affect Economic Growth: Evidence from Developing Countries," SBP Working Paper Series 63, State Bank of Pakistan, Research Department.
    35. Jayaraman, T.K. & Lau, Evan, 2009. "Does external debt lead to economic growth in Pacific island countries," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 31(2), pages 272-288.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Chirwa Themba G. & Odhiambo Nicholas M., 2016. "Macroeconomic Determinants of Economic Growth: A Review of International Literature," South East European Journal of Economics and Business, Sciendo, vol. 11(2), pages 33-47, December.
    2. Doğan, İbrahim & Bilgili, Faik, 2014. "The non-linear impact of high and growing government external debt on economic growth: A Markov Regime-switching approach," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 39(C), pages 213-220.
    3. Taner Turan & Halit Yanıkkaya, 2021. "External debt, growth and investment for developing countries: some evidence for the debt overhang hypothesis," Portuguese Economic Journal, Springer;Instituto Superior de Economia e Gestao, vol. 20(3), pages 319-341, September.
    4. Makun, Keshmeer, 2021. "External debt and economic growth in Pacific Island countries: A linear and nonlinear analysis of Fiji Islands," The Journal of Economic Asymmetries, Elsevier, vol. 23(C).
    5. Dakpogan, Arnaud & Smit, Eon, 2018. "The effect of electricity losses on GDP in Benin," MPRA Paper 89545, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    6. Chirwa, Themba G & Odhiambo, Nicholas M, 2016. "The drivers of real sector growth in Malawi: an empirical investigation," Working Papers 20037, University of South Africa, Department of Economics.
    7. Bernardin Senadza & Agbemavor Korsi Fiagbe & Peter Quartey, 2017. "The Effect of External Debt on Economic Growth in Sub-Saharan Africa," International Journal of Business and Economic Sciences Applied Research (IJBESAR), International Hellenic University (IHU), Kavala Campus, Greece (formerly Eastern Macedonia and Thrace Institute of Technology - EMaTTech), vol. 11(1), pages 61-69, December.
    8. Gómez-Puig, Marta & Sosvilla-Rivero, Simón, 2017. "Heterogeneity in the debt-growth nexus: Evidence from EMU countries," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 51(C), pages 470-486.
    9. Taner Turan & Halit Yanikkaya, 2019. "External Debt, Growth and Investment for Developing Countries: The Role of Government Effectiveness," Working Papers 2019-03, Gebze Technical University, Department of Economics.
    10. Chirwa, Themba G & Odhiambo, Nicholas M., 2018. "Electricity consumption and economic growth: New evidence from twelve countries," Working Papers 23508, University of South Africa, Department of Economics.
    11. İbrahim ÖZMEN, 2022. "New Evidence from Government Debt and Economic Growth in Core and Periphery European Union Countries : Asymmetric Panel Causality," Journal for Economic Forecasting, Institute for Economic Forecasting, vol. 0(3), pages 167-187, October.
    12. Siddique, Abu & Selvanathan, E.A. & Selvanathan, Saroja, 2016. "The impact of external debt on growth: Evidence from highly indebted poor countries," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 38(5), pages 874-894.
    13. De Vita, Glauco & Trachanas, Emmanouil & Luo, Yun, 2018. "Revisiting the bi-directional causality between debt and growth: Evidence from linear and nonlinear tests," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 83(C), pages 55-74.
    14. Saungweme, Talknice & Odhiambo, Nicholas M., 2020. "The Impact of Domestic and Foreign Public Debt on Economic Growth: Empirical Evidence from Zimbabwe," Economia Internazionale / International Economics, Camera di Commercio Industria Artigianato Agricoltura di Genova, vol. 73(1), pages 77-106.
    15. Themba G Chirwa & NM Odhiambo, 2019. "An Empirical Test Of Exogenous Growth Models: Evidence From Three Southern African Countries," Economic Annals, Faculty of Economics and Business, University of Belgrade, vol. 64(220), pages 7-38, January –.
    16. Mduduzi Biyase & September Rooderick, 2017. "Determinants of Growth in SADC Countries: A Fixed Effect Vector Decomposition Approach," International Journal of Economics and Financial Issues, Econjournals, vol. 7(4), pages 746-751.
    17. Jos Mauricio Gil Le n & John William Rosso Murillo & Edgar Alonso Ramirez Hern ndez, 2019. "Public Debt and Stability in Economic Growth: Evidence for Latin America," International Journal of Economics and Financial Issues, Econjournals, vol. 9(4), pages 137-147.
    18. Manamba EPAPHRA & William MESIET, 2021. "The external debt burden and economic growth in Africa: a panel data analysis," Theoretical and Applied Economics, Asociatia Generala a Economistilor din Romania - AGER, vol. 0(2(627), S), pages 175-206, Summer.
    19. Ehrhart, Hélène & Minea, Alexandru & Villieu, Patrick, 2014. "Debt, seigniorage, and the Growth Laffer Curve in developing countries," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 42(C), pages 199-210.
    20. Besnik Fetai & Kestrim Avdimetaj & Abdylmenaf Bexheti & Arben Malaj, 2020. "Threshold effect of public debt on economic growth: An empirical analysis in the European transition countries," Zbornik radova Ekonomskog fakulteta u Rijeci/Proceedings of Rijeka Faculty of Economics, University of Rijeka, Faculty of Economics and Business, vol. 38(2), pages 381-406.

    More about this item

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:osf:osfxxx:ghfdb. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: OSF (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://osf.io/preprints/ .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.