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Neutral interest rates in the post-crisis period

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    Estimates of neutral interest rates play a useful role in thinking about monetary policy. This note explores the concept of a neutral interest rate and provides some simple empirical illustrations of the trend decline in neutral rates, here and abroad, over the last couple of decades.

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    Paper provided by Reserve Bank of New Zealand in its series Reserve Bank of New Zealand Analytical Notes series with number AN2013/07.

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    Length: 32 p.
    Date of creation: Nov 2013
    Date of revision:
    Handle: RePEc:nzb:nzbans:2013/07
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    1. Neiss, Katharine & Nelson, Edward, 2001. "The Real Interest rate Gap as an Inflation Indicator," CEPR Discussion Papers 2848, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    2. Mesonnier, Jean-Stephane & Renne, Jean-Paul, 2007. "A time-varying "natural" rate of interest for the euro area," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 51(7), pages 1768-1784, October.
    3. Michael Kirker, 2008. "Does natural rate variation matter? Evidence from New Zealand," Reserve Bank of New Zealand Discussion Paper Series DP2008/17, Reserve Bank of New Zealand.
    4. Romain Bouis & Ɓukasz Rawdanowicz & Jean-Paul Renne & Shingo Watanabe & Ane Kathrine Christensen, 2013. "The Effectiveness of Monetary Policy since the Onset of the Financial Crisis," OECD Economics Department Working Papers 1081, OECD Publishing.
    5. L Christopher Plantier & Dean Scrimgeour, 2002. "Estimating a Taylor Rule for New Zealand with a time-varying neutral real rate," Reserve Bank of New Zealand Discussion Paper Series DP2002/06, Reserve Bank of New Zealand.
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