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Neutral interest rates in the post-crisis period

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Abstract

Estimates of neutral interest rates play a useful role in thinking about monetary policy. This note explores the concept of a neutral interest rate and provides some simple empirical illustrations of the trend decline in neutral rates, here and abroad, over the last couple of decades.

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  • Willy Chetwin & Amy Wood, 2013. "Neutral interest rates in the post-crisis period," Reserve Bank of New Zealand Analytical Notes series AN2013/07, Reserve Bank of New Zealand.
  • Handle: RePEc:nzb:nzbans:2013/07
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    File URL: http://www.rbnz.govt.nz/-/media/ReserveBank/Files/Publications/Analytical%20notes/2013/an2013-07.pdf
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    1. Mesonnier, Jean-Stephane & Renne, Jean-Paul, 2007. "A time-varying "natural" rate of interest for the euro area," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 51(7), pages 1768-1784, October.
    2. Michael Kirker, 2008. "Does natural rate variation matter? Evidence from New Zealand," Reserve Bank of New Zealand Discussion Paper Series DP2008/17, Reserve Bank of New Zealand.
    3. Neiss, Katharine S. & Nelson, Edward, 2003. "The Real-Interest-Rate Gap As An Inflation Indicator," Macroeconomic Dynamics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 7(02), pages 239-262, April.
    4. L Christopher Plantier & Dean Scrimgeour, 2002. "Estimating a Taylor Rule for New Zealand with a time-varying neutral real rate," Reserve Bank of New Zealand Discussion Paper Series DP2002/06, Reserve Bank of New Zealand.
    5. Romain Bouis & Łukasz Rawdanowicz & Jean-Paul Renne & Shingo Watanabe & Ane Kathrine Christensen, 2013. "The Effectiveness of Monetary Policy since the Onset of the Financial Crisis," OECD Economics Department Working Papers 1081, OECD Publishing.
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    1. repec:chb:bcchni:v:20:y:2017:i:3:p:120-143 is not listed on IDEAS
    2. Harendra Behera & Sitikantha Pattanaik & Rajesh Kavediya, 2015. "Natural Interest Rate: Assessing the Stance of India’s Monetary Policy under Uncertainty," Working Papers id:7654, eSocialSciences.
    3. Petra Gerlach-Kristen & Richhild Moessner & Rina Rosenblatt-Wisch, 2017. "Computing long‐term market inflation expectations for countries without inflation expectation markets," Working Papers 2017-09, Swiss National Bank.

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