IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/ngi/dpaper/13-19.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Estimation Errors in Input-Output Tables and Prediction Errors in Computable General Equilibrium Analysis

Author

Listed:
  • Nobuhiro Hosoe

    (National Graduate Institute for Policy Studies)

Abstract

We used 1995-2000-2005 linked input-output (IO) tables for Japan to examine estimation errors of updated IO tables and the resulting prediction errors in computable general equilibrium (CGE) analysis developed with updated IO tables. As we usually have no true IO tables for the target year and therefore need to estimate them, we cannot evaluate estimation errors of updated IO tables without comparing the updated ones with true ones. However, using the linked IO tables covering three different years enables us to make this comparison. Our experiments showed that IO tables estimated with more detailed and recent data contained smaller estimation errors and led to smaller quantitative prediction errors in CGE analysis. Despite the quantitative prediction errors, prediction was found to be qualitatively correct. As for the performance of updating techniques of IO tables, a cross-entropy method often outperformed a least-squares method in IO estimation with only aggregate data for the target year but did not necessarily outperform the least-squares method in CGE prediction.

Suggested Citation

  • Nobuhiro Hosoe, 2013. "Estimation Errors in Input-Output Tables and Prediction Errors in Computable General Equilibrium Analysis," GRIPS Discussion Papers 13-19, National Graduate Institute for Policy Studies.
    • Handle: RePEc:ngi:dpaper:13-19
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://grips.repo.nii.ac.jp/?action=repository_action_common_download&item_id=1130&item_no=1&attribute_id=20&file_no=1
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Randall Jackson & Alan Murray, 2004. "Alternative Input-Output Matrix Updating Formulations," Economic Systems Research, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 16(2), pages 135-148.
    2. repec:rre:publsh:v:34:y:2004:i:1:p:37-56 is not listed on IDEAS
    3. Jalili, Ali Reza, 2000. "Evaluating Relative Performances of Four Non-survey Techniques of Updating Input-Output Coefficients," Economic Change and Restructuring, Springer, vol. 33(3), pages 221-237.
    4. Sherman Robinson & Andrea Cattaneo & Moataz El-Said, 2001. "Updating and Estimating a Social Accounting Matrix Using Cross Entropy Methods," Economic Systems Research, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 13(1), pages 47-64.
    5. Golan, Amos & Judge, George G. & Miller, Douglas, 1996. "Maximum Entropy Econometrics," Staff General Research Papers Archive 1488, Iowa State University, Department of Economics.
    6. Ali Jalili, 2000. "Evaluating Relative Performances of Four Non-Survey Techniques of Updating Input-Output Coefficients," Economic Change and Restructuring, Springer, vol. 33(3), pages 221-237, October.
    7. Nobuhiro Hosoe & Kenji Gasawa & Hideo Hashimoto, 2010. "Textbook of Computable General Equilibrium Modelling," Palgrave Macmillan Books, Palgrave Macmillan, number 978-0-230-28165-3, December.
    8. Andrea Bonfiglio & Francesco Chelli, 2008. "Assessing the Behaviour of Non-Survey Methods for Constructing Regional Input-Output Tables through a Monte Carlo Simulation," Economic Systems Research, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 20(3), pages 243-258.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Wenlang Zhang & Gaofeng Han & Steven Chan, 2014. "How Strong are the Linkages between Real Estate and Other Sectors in China?," Working Papers 112014, Hong Kong Institute for Monetary Research.
    2. Lin, Boqiang & Jia, Zhijie, 2019. "What will China's carbon emission trading market affect with only electricity sector involvement? A CGE based study," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 78(C), pages 301-311.
    3. Anthony T. Flegg & Guiseppe R. Lamonica & Francesco M. Chelli & Maria C. Recchioni & Timo Tohmo, 2021. "A new approach to modelling the input–output structure of regional economies using non-survey methods," Journal of Economic Structures, Springer;Pan-Pacific Association of Input-Output Studies (PAPAIOS), vol. 10(1), pages 1-31, December.
    4. Lin, Boqiang & Jia, Zhijie, 2018. "The energy, environmental and economic impacts of carbon tax rate and taxation industry: A CGE based study in China," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 159(C), pages 558-568.
    5. Lin, Boqiang & Jia, Zhijie, 2019. "Impacts of carbon price level in carbon emission trading market," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 239(C), pages 157-170.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Andrea BONFIGLIO, 2008. "Evaluating Implications of Agricultural Policies in a Rural Region through a CGE Analysis," Working Papers 328, Universita' Politecnica delle Marche (I), Dipartimento di Scienze Economiche e Sociali.
    2. Jakub Boratyński, 2016. "A Bayesian Approach to Matrix Balancing: Transformation of Industry-Level Data under NACE Revision," Central European Journal of Economic Modelling and Econometrics, Central European Journal of Economic Modelling and Econometrics, vol. 8(4), pages 219-239, December.
    3. Marc Mueller & Emanuele Ferrari, 2012. "Social Accounting Matrices and Satellite Accounts for EU27 on NUTS2 Level (SAMNUTS2)," JRC Research Reports JRC73088, Joint Research Centre.
    4. Y.T. Bahta & B.J. Willemse & B. Grove, 2014. "The role of agriculture in welfare, income distribution and economic development of the Free State Province of South Africa: A CGE approach," Agrekon, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 53(1), pages 46-74, March.
    5. Konstantinos Pouliakas & Deborah Roberts & Eudokia Balamou & Dimitris Psaltopoulos, 2014. "Modelling the Effects of Immigration on Regional Economic Performance and Wage Distribution: A Computable General Equilibrium (CGE) Analysis of Three European Union Regions," Regional Studies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 48(2), pages 318-338, February.
    6. Ramos Carvajal, Carmen & Fernández Vázquez, Esteban, 2002. "Temporal projection of an input-output tables series for the region of Asturias," ERSA conference papers ersa02p211, European Regional Science Association.
    7. You, Liangzhi & Wood, Stanley & Wood-Sichra, Ulrike, 2004. "Generating Plausible Crop Distribution Maps For Sub-Sahara Africa Using Spatial Allocation Model," 2004 Annual meeting, August 1-4, Denver, CO 19965, American Agricultural Economics Association (New Name 2008: Agricultural and Applied Economics Association).
    8. Shaojian Qu & Hao Cai & Dandan Xu & Nabé Mohamed, 2021. "Uncertainty in the prediction and management of CO2 emissions: a robust minimum entropy approach," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 107(3), pages 2419-2438, July.
    9. Fujimori, Shinichiro & Matsuoka, Yuzuru, 2011. "Development of method for estimation of world industrial energy consumption and its application," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 33(3), pages 461-473, May.
    10. Rich, Jeppe & Mulalic, Ismir, 2012. "Generating synthetic baseline populations from register data," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 46(3), pages 467-479.
    11. Bahta, Yonas Tesfamariam, 2014. "The Impact Of International Oil Price Increase On The Economy Of Free State Province Of South Africa," International Journal of Food and Agricultural Economics (IJFAEC), Alanya Alaaddin Keykubat University, Department of Economics and Finance, vol. 2(1), pages 1-10, January.
    12. You, Liangzhi & Wood, Stanley & Wood-Sichra, Ulrike, 2007. "Generating plausible crop distribution and performance maps for Sub-Saharan Africa using a spatially disaggregated data fusion and optimization approach:," IFPRI discussion papers 725, International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI).
    13. Go, Delfin S. & Lofgren, Hans & Ramos, Fabian Mendez & Robinson, Sherman, 2016. "Estimating parameters and structural change in CGE models using a Bayesian cross-entropy estimation approach," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 52(PB), pages 790-811.
    14. Eduardo Haddad & Vasco Silva & Alexandre Porsse & Tomaz Dentinho, 2015. "Multipliers in an Island Economy: The Case of the Azores," World Scientific Book Chapters, in: Amitrajeet A Batabyal & Peter Nijkamp (ed.), THE REGION AND TRADE New Analytical Directions, chapter 8, pages 205-226, World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd..
    15. Sue Wing, Ian, 2008. "The synthesis of bottom-up and top-down approaches to climate policy modeling: Electric power technology detail in a social accounting framework," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 30(2), pages 547-573, March.
    16. Masters, William A. & Garcia, Andres F., 2009. "The Political Economy of Agricultural Policy: Global Trends and Future Prospects," Conference papers 331868, Purdue University, Center for Global Trade Analysis, Global Trade Analysis Project.
    17. Casiano Peñate & Dolores Peñate, 2003. "New Nonlinear Approaches for the Adjustment and Updating of a SAM," Economic Change and Restructuring, Springer, vol. 36(3), pages 259-272, September.
    18. Nlemfu Mukoko, Jean Blaise, 2015. "Matrice de Comptabilité Sociale de 2013 pour la R.D.Congo [2013 Social Accounting Matrix for the D.R.Congo]," MPRA Paper 72407, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised Jan 2016.
    19. Umed Temursho & Manuel Alejandro Cardenete & Krzysztof Wojtowicz & Luis Rey & Matthias Weitzel & Toon Vandyck & Bert Saveyn, 2020. "Projecting input-output tables for model baselines," JRC Research Reports JRC120513, Joint Research Centre.
    20. Heckelei, Thomas & Mittelhammer, Ronald C. & Jansson, Torbjorn, 2008. "A Bayesian Alternative To Generalized Cross Entropy Solutions For Underdetermined Econometric Models," Discussion Papers 56973, University of Bonn, Institute for Food and Resource Economics.

    More about this item

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:ngi:dpaper:13-19. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: the person in charge (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/gripsjp.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.