Generating synthetic baseline populations from register data
The paper presents a population synthesiser based on the method of Iterative Proportional Fitting (IPF) algorithm developed for the new Danish national transport model system. The synthesiser is designed for large population matrices and allows target variables to be represented in several target constraints. As a result, constraints for the IPF are cross-linked, which makes it difficult to ensure consistency of targets in a forecast perspective. The paper proposes a new solution strategy to ensure internal consistency of the population targets in order to guarantee proper convergence of the IPF algorithm. The solution strategy consists in establishing a harmonisation process for the population targets, which combined with a linear programming approach, is applied to generate a consistent target representation. The model approach is implemented and tested on Danish administrative register data. A test on historical census data shows that a 2006 population could be predicted by a 1994 population with an overall percentage deviation of 5–6% given that targets were known. It is also indicated that the deviation is approximately a linear function of the length of the forecast period.
If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to look for a different version under "Related research" (further below) or search for a different version of it.
Volume (Year): 46 (2012)
Issue (Month): 3 ()
|Contact details of provider:|| Web page: http://www.elsevier.com/wps/find/journaldescription.cws_home/547/description#description|
|Order Information:|| Postal: http://www.elsevier.com/wps/find/supportfaq.cws_home/regional|
References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Robinson, Sherman & Cattaneo, Andrea & El-Said, Moataz, 2000.
"Updating and estimating a Social Accounting Matrix using cross entropy methods,"
TMD discussion papers
58, International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI).
- Sherman Robinson & Andrea Cattaneo & Moataz El-Said, 2001. "Updating and Estimating a Social Accounting Matrix Using Cross Entropy Methods," Economic Systems Research, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 13(1), pages 47-64.
- McDougall, Robert, 1999. "Entropy Theory and RAS are Friends," GTAP Working Papers 300, Center for Global Trade Analysis, Department of Agricultural Economics, Purdue University.
- Beckman, Richard J. & Baggerly, Keith A. & McKay, Michael D., 1996. "Creating synthetic baseline populations," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 30(6), pages 415-429, November.
- Golan, Amos & Judge, George G. & Miller, Douglas, 1996. "Maximum Entropy Econometrics," Staff General Research Papers 1488, Iowa State University, Department of Economics.
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:transa:v:46:y:2012:i:3:p:467-479. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Zhang, Lei)
If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.
If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.
If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.
Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.