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Japanese strategy on climate change to achieve the Kyoto Target with steady economic development -An investigation by using the dynamic version of GTAP-E model

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  • Hamasaki, Hiroshi

Abstract

This study aims to estimate dynamic economic impact on Japan by meeting the Kyoto target and “post”-Kyoto target by using dynamic GTAP-E model. In addition, this study assesses the effectiveness of post-Kyoto commitments from economic and environmental perspectives. To meet the Kyoto target, real GDP decreases continually from 2008, which is the first year of the first commitment period. Even after 2012, real GDP continues to decrease. In 2008, 2012 and 2020, real GDP deviations from baseline are respectively -1.362%, -1.686% and -1.763%. Big loser in Japan are energy intensive industries, iron and steel and chemical, rubber and plastic. Iron and steel industry output is projected to decrease by 3.087% in 2012 and 5.092% in 2020. Chemical, rubber and plastic industry output will decrease by 3.658% in 2012 and 4.884% in 2020. If Japan stabilise the carbon emission at the Kyoto target, Japan GDP continues to decrease and the GDP deviation from baseline would be 2.963% in 2020. In Kyoto-Forever scenario, global carbon emission is reduced by only 5.862% from baseline scenario in 2020. Kyoto-forever commitment is not sufficient to stabilise atmosphere carbon concentration and give serious negative impacts on countries which ratified the Kyoto Protocol. Japan, EU and Canada GDP are projected to decrease by 1.660%, 2.640% and 2.970% in 2012 and 2.957%, 4.893% and 4.882% in 2020 respectively. In establishing new commitments, a key factor will be negotiability and the new commitment should not covers only developed countries, but also developing countries, which will emit more greenhouse gas emission more than current developed countries in near future.

Suggested Citation

  • Hamasaki, Hiroshi, 2004. "Japanese strategy on climate change to achieve the Kyoto Target with steady economic development -An investigation by using the dynamic version of GTAP-E model," Conference papers 331201, Purdue University, Center for Global Trade Analysis, Global Trade Analysis Project.
    • Handle: RePEc:ags:pugtwp:331201
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