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Estimation Errors in Input-Output Tables and Prediction Errors in Computable General Equilibrium Analysis

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  • Nobuhiro Hosoe

    (National Graduate Institute for Policy Studies)

Abstract

We used 1995-2000-2005 linked input-output (IO) tables for Japan to examine estimation errors of updated IO tables and the resulting prediction errors in computable general equilibrium (CGE) analysis developed with updated IO tables. As we usually have no true IO tables for the target year and therefore need to estimate them, we cannot evaluate estimation errors of updated IO tables without comparing the updated ones with true ones. However, using the linked IO tables covering three different years enables us to make this comparison. Our experiments showed that IO tables estimated with more detailed and recent data contained smaller estimation errors and led to smaller quantitative prediction errors in CGE analysis. Despite the quantitative prediction errors, prediction was found to be qualitatively correct. As for the performance of updating techniques of IO tables, a cross-entropy method often outperformed a least-squares method in IO estimation with only aggregate data for the target year but did not necessarily outperform the least-squares method in CGE prediction.

Suggested Citation

  • Nobuhiro Hosoe, 2013. "Estimation Errors in Input-Output Tables and Prediction Errors in Computable General Equilibrium Analysis," GRIPS Discussion Papers 13-16, National Graduate Institute for Policy Studies.
  • Handle: RePEc:ngi:dpaper:13-16
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Randall Jackson & Alan Murray, 2004. "Alternative Input-Output Matrix Updating Formulations," Economic Systems Research, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 16(2), pages 135-148.
    2. Cardenete, M. Alejandro & Sancho, Ferran, 2004. "Sensitivity of CGE Simulation Results to Competing SAM Updates," The Review of Regional Studies, Southern Regional Science Association, vol. 34(1), pages 37-56.
    3. Jalili, Ali Reza, 2000. "Evaluating Relative Performances of Four Non-survey Techniques of Updating Input-Output Coefficients," Economic Change and Restructuring, Springer, vol. 33(3), pages 221-237.
    4. Sherman Robinson & Andrea Cattaneo & Moataz El-Said, 2001. "Updating and Estimating a Social Accounting Matrix Using Cross Entropy Methods," Economic Systems Research, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 13(1), pages 47-64.
    5. Golan, Amos & Judge, George G. & Miller, Douglas, 1996. "Maximum Entropy Econometrics," Staff General Research Papers Archive 1488, Iowa State University, Department of Economics.
    6. Ali Jalili, 2000. "Evaluating Relative Performances of Four Non-Survey Techniques of Updating Input-Output Coefficients," Economic Change and Restructuring, Springer, vol. 33(3), pages 221-237, October.
    7. Andrea Bonfiglio & Francesco Chelli, 2008. "Assessing the Behaviour of Non-Survey Methods for Constructing Regional Input-Output Tables through a Monte Carlo Simulation," Economic Systems Research, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 20(3), pages 243-258.
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    Cited by:

    1. Wenlang Zhang & Gaofeng Han & Steven Chan, 2014. "How Strong are the Linkages between Real Estate and Other Sectors in China?," Working Papers 112014, Hong Kong Institute for Monetary Research.

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