Demographic Dynamics, Labor Force Participation and Household Asset Accumulation: Case of Japan
A dynamic model of the demographic structure of Japan is summarized. It is capable of tracing the dynamic development of the Japanese population, including the distribution of families by age, sex, and marital status of the head, as well as by the number and age of children and other dependents. This model is combined with a specification of the processes generating family income and consumption, and then used to generate the pattern of aggregate income, saving and asset accumulation for the period 1985-2090 under alternative fertility assumptions. The results suggest that the saving-income ratio for Japan will increase slightly in the immediate future as the number of children per family declines sharply, and then fall moderately as the proportion of older persons in the population increases. Quantitative results depend critically on the labor force participation rate of older persons and on the probability of older persons merging into younger households. However, unless some major changes in Japanese saving behavior take place, our analysis suggests that Japan will have an unusually high net worth-income ratio as its population stabilizes or begins to decline.
|Date of creation:||Sep 1995|
|Date of revision:|
|Publication status:||published as Ando, Albert & Moro, Andrea & Cordoba, Juan Pablo & Garland, Gonzalo, 1995. "Dynamics of demographic development and its impact on personal saving: case of Japan," Ricerche Economiche, Elsevier, vol. 49(3), pages 179-205, September.|
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- Jagadeesh Gokhale & Laurence J. Kotlikoff & John Sabelhaus, 1995. "Understanding the postwar decline in United States saving: a cohort analysis," Working Paper 9518, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland.
- Alan P. Kirman, 1992. "Whom or What Does the Representative Individual Represent?," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 6(2), pages 117-136, Spring.
- Albert Ando & Luigi Guiso & Daniele Terlizzese, 1993. "Dissaving by the Elderly, Transfer Motives and Liquidity Constraints," NBER Working Papers 4569, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Ando, Albert & Moro, Andrea & Cordoba, Juan Pablo & Garland, Gonzalo, 1995. "Dynamics of demographic development and its impact on personal saving: case of Japan," Ricerche Economiche, Elsevier, vol. 49(3), pages 179-205, September.
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