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Debt Concentration and Secondary Markets Prices: A Theoretical and Empirical Analysis

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  • Raquel Fernandez
  • Sule Ozler

Abstract

In the context of a model that distinguishes between large money center banks and smaller regional banks, we show that the percentage of a country's debt held by the large banks affects the secondary market price of that country's debt: the higher the concentration of the debt, the higher the secondary market price. We also show that the free trade of debt in the secondary market does not necessarily imply that the entire stock of debt will eventually be owned by the large banks. Our empirical analysis incorporates a number of potential determinants of secondary market prices. Among these are variables that are associated with a country's economic performance, variables that can be associated with the regulatory structure in the creditor's country, and the concentration of debt in the hands of the largest US banks. Our empirical findings indicate that concentration indeed has a positive effect on secondary market prices.

Suggested Citation

  • Raquel Fernandez & Sule Ozler, 1991. "Debt Concentration and Secondary Markets Prices: A Theoretical and Empirical Analysis," NBER Working Papers 3654, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  • Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:3654 Note: ITI IFM
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Eaton, Jonathan & Fernandez, Raquel, 1995. "Sovereign debt," Handbook of International Economics,in: G. M. Grossman & K. Rogoff (ed.), Handbook of International Economics, edition 1, volume 3, chapter 3, pages 2031-2077 Elsevier.
    2. Rubinstein, Ariel, 1982. "Perfect Equilibrium in a Bargaining Model," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 50(1), pages 97-109, January.
    3. Rosenthal, Robert W., 1991. "On the incentives associated with sovereign debt," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 30(1-2), pages 167-176, February.
    4. Vassilis A. Hajivassiliou, 1989. "Do the Secondary Markets Believe in Life After Debt?," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 911, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University.
    5. Amemiya, Takeshi, 1984. "Tobit models: A survey," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 24(1-2), pages 3-61.
    6. Fernandez, Raquel & Glazer, Jacob, 1991. "Striking for a Bargain between Two Completely Informed Agents," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 81(1), pages 240-252, March.
    7. White, Halbert, 1980. "A Heteroskedasticity-Consistent Covariance Matrix Estimator and a Direct Test for Heteroskedasticity," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 48(4), pages 817-838, May.
    8. Berg, Andrew & Sachs, Jeffrey, 1988. "The debt crisis structural explanations of country performance," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 29(3), pages 271-306, November.
    9. Lung-Fei Lee, 1982. "Some Approaches to the Correction of Selectivity Bias," Review of Economic Studies, Oxford University Press, vol. 49(3), pages 355-372.
    10. Diwan, Ishac & Demirguc-Kunt, Asli, 1990. "The menu approach to developing country external debt : an analysis of commercial banks'choice behavior," Policy Research Working Paper Series 530, The World Bank.
    11. Jeffrey Sachs, 1983. "Theoretical Issues in International Borrowing," NBER Working Papers 1189, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
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    Cited by:

    1. Eaton, Jonathan & Fernandez, Raquel, 1995. "Sovereign debt," Handbook of International Economics,in: G. M. Grossman & K. Rogoff (ed.), Handbook of International Economics, edition 1, volume 3, chapter 3, pages 2031-2077 Elsevier.
    2. Cumby, Robert E. & Pastine, Tuvana, 2001. "Emerging market debt: measuring credit quality and examining relative pricing," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 20(5), pages 591-609, October.
    3. Hossein Kazemi & Ayla Ogus, 2008. "The Determinants of the Secondary Market Price of Less Developed Countries’ Debt," Atlantic Economic Journal, Springer;International Atlantic Economic Society, vol. 36(2), pages 153-164, June.
    4. Sawada, Yasuyuki, 2001. "Secondary market efficiency for LDC bank loans and international private lending, 1985-1993," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 20(4), pages 549-562, August.
    5. Sule Ozler & Harry Huizinga, 1992. "Bank Exposure, Capital and Secondary Market Discounts on the Developing Country Debt," NBER Working Papers 3961, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    6. Sule Ozler, 1992. "Have Commercial Banks Ignored History?," NBER Working Papers 3959, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.

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