IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/nbr/nberwo/19770.html

Wedges, Labor Market Behavior, and Health Insurance Coverage under the Affordable Care Act

Author

Listed:
  • Trevor S. Gallen
  • Casey B. Mulligan

Abstract

The Affordable Care Act's taxes, subsidies, and regulations significantly alter terms of trade in both goods and factor markets. We use a multi-sector (intra-national) trade model to predict and quantify consequences of the Affordable Care Act for the incidence of health insurance coverage and patterns of labor usage. If and when the new exchange plans are competitive with employer-sponsored insurance (ESI), our model suggests that more than 20 million people will leave ESI as a consequence of the law. Behavioral changes that are captured in the model could add about 3 million participants to the new exchange plans: beyond those that would participate solely as the result of employer decisions to stop offering coverage and beyond those who would have been uninsured. Industries and regions will grow, decline, and change coverage on the basis of their relative demand for skilled labor.

Suggested Citation

  • Trevor S. Gallen & Casey B. Mulligan, 2013. "Wedges, Labor Market Behavior, and Health Insurance Coverage under the Affordable Care Act," NBER Working Papers 19770, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    • Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:19770
    Note: EH PE
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.nber.org/papers/w19770.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Arnold C. Harberger, 1962. "The Incidence of the Corporation Income Tax," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 70(3), pages 215-215.
    2. Daron Acemoglu, 2002. "Technical Change, Inequality, and the Labor Market," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 40(1), pages 7-72, March.
    3. Unel, Bulent, 2010. "Analyzing skilled and unskilled labor efficiencies in the US," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 32(4), pages 957-967, December.
    4. Casey B. Mulligan & Trevor S. Gallen, 2013. "Wedges, Wages, and Productivity under the Affordable Care Act," NBER Working Papers 19771, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    5. Richard V. Burkhauser & Sean Lyons & Kosali I. Simon, 2011. "The Importance of the Meaning and Measurement of "Affordable" in the Affordable Care Act," NBER Working Papers 17279, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Tim Bersak, 2019. "Identification of Job Lock and Inefficient Labor Market Mobility," Southern Economic Journal, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 86(2), pages 530-547, October.
    2. Casey B. Mulligan & Trevor S. Gallen, 2013. "Wedges, Wages, and Productivity under the Affordable Care Act," NBER Working Papers 19771, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    3. Casey B. Mulligan, 2015. "The New Full-Time Employment Taxes," Tax Policy and the Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 29(1), pages 89-132.
    4. Casey B. Mulligan, 2019. "The Employer Penalty, Voluntary Compliance, and the Size Distribution of Firms: Evidence from a Survey of Small Businesses," NBER Chapters, in: Tax Policy and the Economy, Volume 34, pages 139-171, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    5. Rajashri Chakrabarti & Maxim Pinkovskiy, 2019. "The Affordable Care Act and the Market for Higher Education," CESifo Working Paper Series 7869, CESifo.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Casey B. Mulligan & Trevor S. Gallen, 2013. "Wedges, Wages, and Productivity under the Affordable Care Act," NBER Working Papers 19771, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    2. Casey B. Mulligan, 2015. "The New Full-Time Employment Taxes," Tax Policy and the Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 29(1), pages 89-132.
    3. Casey B. Mulligan, 2012. "The ARRA: Some Unpleasant Welfare Arithmetic," NBER Working Papers 18591, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    4. Casey B. Mulligan, 2014. "The Economics of Work Schedules under the New Hours and Employment Taxes," NBER Working Papers 19936, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    5. Daniel Ştefan Armeanu & Georgeta Vintilă & Ştefan Cristian Gherghina, 2017. "Empirical Study towards the Drivers of Sustainable Economic Growth in EU-28 Countries," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 10(1), pages 1-22, December.
    6. Checchi, Daniele & Visser, Jelle & van de Werfhorst, Herman G., 2007. "Inequality and Union Membership: The Impact of Relative Earnings Position and Inequality Attitudes," IZA Discussion Papers 2691, IZA Network @ LISER.
    7. Jae Song & David J Price & Fatih Guvenen & Nicholas Bloom & Till von Wachter, 2019. "Firming Up Inequality," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 134(1), pages 1-50.
    8. Luca Marchiori & I-Ling Shen & Frédéric Docquier, 2013. "Brain Drain In Globalization: A General Equilibrium Analysis From The Sending Countries' Perspective," Economic Inquiry, Western Economic Association International, vol. 51(2), pages 1582-1602, April.
    9. Patricia Crifo & Etienne Lehmann, 2001. "Why the Kuznets Curve Will Always Reverse," Université Paris1 Panthéon-Sorbonne (Post-Print and Working Papers) halshs-00150324, HAL.
    10. Daron Acemoglu & Amy Finkelstein, 2008. "Input and Technology Choices in Regulated Industries: Evidence from the Health Care Sector," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 116(5), pages 837-880, October.
    11. Rajagopal, Dagmar & Shah, Anwar, 1995. "A rational expectations model for tax policy analysis: An evaluation of tax incentives for the textile, chemical and pharmaceutical industries of Pakistan," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 57(2), pages 249-276, June.
    12. Hilal Atasoy & Rajiv D. Banker & Paul A. Pavlou, 2016. "On the Longitudinal Effects of IT Use on Firm-Level Employment," Information Systems Research, INFORMS, vol. 27(1), pages 6-26, March.
    13. Yoonkyo Cho & Taehwan Kim & Jaewhak Roh, 2021. "An analysis of the effects of electronic commerce on the Korean economy using the CGE model," Electronic Commerce Research, Springer, vol. 21(3), pages 831-854, September.
    14. Paolo Seri, 2014. "The role of proximity in retrospective: organizations, ICT and human resources in Italian traditional districts? firms," Working Papers 1404, University of Urbino Carlo Bo, Department of Economics, Society & Politics - Scientific Committee - L. Stefanini & G. Travaglini, revised 2014.
    15. James Spletzer & Elizabeth Weber Handwerker, 2015. "The Role of Establishments and the Concentration of Occupations in Wage Inequality," Working Papers id:7427, eSocialSciences.
    16. Shiyuan Pan & Heng-fu Zou & Tailong Li, 2010. "Patent Protection, Technological Change and Wage Inequality," CEMA Working Papers 437, China Economics and Management Academy, Central University of Finance and Economics.
    17. Thanos Fragkandreas, 2022. "Three Decades of Research on Innovation and Inequality: Causal Scenarios, Explanatory Factors, and Suggestions," Working Papers 60, Birkbeck Centre for Innovation Management Research, revised Feb 2022.
    18. Thu Hien DAO & Frédéric DOCQUIER & Mathilde MAUREL & Pierre SCHAUS, 2017. "Global Migration in the 20th and 21st Centuries: the Unstoppable Force of Demography," Working Paper 96d89f28-0e80-4703-9b33-6, Agence française de développement.
    19. Bourguignon, Francois, 2005. "The Effect of Economic Growth on Social Structures," Handbook of Economic Growth, in: Philippe Aghion & Steven Durlauf (ed.), Handbook of Economic Growth, edition 1, volume 1, chapter 27, pages 1701-1747, Elsevier.
    20. Bjarne S. Jensen, 2004. "Pareto Efficiency, Relative Prices, and Solutions to CGE Models," DEGIT Conference Papers c009_006, DEGIT, Dynamics, Economic Growth, and International Trade.

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • H3 - Public Economics - - Fiscal Policies and Behavior of Economic Agents
    • I13 - Health, Education, and Welfare - - Health - - - Health Insurance, Public and Private
    • I18 - Health, Education, and Welfare - - Health - - - Government Policy; Regulation; Public Health

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:19770. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: the person in charge (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/nberrus.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.