IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/nbr/nberwo/17248.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Prospective Analysis of a Wage Subsidy for Cape Town Youth

Author

Listed:
  • James A. Levinsohn
  • Todd Pugatch

Abstract

Recognizing that a credible estimate of a wage subsidy's impact requires a model of the labor market that itself generates high unemployment in equilibrium, we estimate a structural search model that incorporates both observed heterogeneity and measurement error in wages. Using the model to examine the impact of a wage subsidy, we find that a R1000/month wage subsidy paid to employers leads to an increase of R660 in mean accepted wages and a decrease of 15 percentage points in the share of youth experiencing long-term unemployment.

Suggested Citation

  • James A. Levinsohn & Todd Pugatch, 2011. "Prospective Analysis of a Wage Subsidy for Cape Town Youth," NBER Working Papers 17248, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    • Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:17248
    Note: LS
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.nber.org/papers/w17248.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Abhijit Banerjee & Sebastian Galiani & Jim Levinsohn & Zoë McLaren & Ingrid Woolard, 2008. "Why has unemployment risen in the New South Africa?1," The Economics of Transition, The European Bank for Reconstruction and Development, vol. 16(4), pages 715-740, October.
    2. Zvi Eckstein & Kenneth I. Wolpin, 1995. "Duration to First Job and the Return to Schooling: Estimates from a Search-Matching Model," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 62(2), pages 263-286.
    3. Christensen, Bent Jesper & Kiefer, Nicholas M, 1994. "Measurement Error in the Prototypal Job-Search Model," Journal of Labor Economics, University of Chicago Press, vol. 12(4), pages 618-639, October.
    4. Anne Case, 2004. "Does Money Protect Health Status? Evidence from South African Pensions," NBER Chapters, in: Perspectives on the Economics of Aging, pages 287-312, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    5. Eckstein, Zvi & van den Berg, Gerard J., 2007. "Empirical labor search: A survey," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 136(2), pages 531-564, February.
    6. David Lam & Murray Leibbrandt & Cecil Mlatsheni, 2008. "Education and Youth Unemployment in South Africa," SALDRU Working Papers 22, Southern Africa Labour and Development Research Unit, University of Cape Town.
    7. Bound, John & Krueger, Alan B, 1991. "The Extent of Measurement Error in Longitudinal Earnings Data: Do Two Wrongs Make a Right?," Journal of Labor Economics, University of Chicago Press, vol. 9(1), pages 1-24, January.
    8. Esther Duflo, 2003. "Grandmothers and Granddaughters: Old-Age Pensions and Intrahousehold Allocation in South Africa," The World Bank Economic Review, World Bank, vol. 17(1), pages 1-25, June.
    9. Gerard J. van den Berg, 1990. "Nonstationarity in Job Search Theory," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 57(2), pages 255-277.
    10. Pugatch, Todd, 2012. "Bumpy Rides: School to Work Transitions in South Africa," IZA Discussion Papers 6305, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    11. Volker Schöer & Murray Leibbrandt, 2006. "Determinants Of Job Search Strategies: Evidence From The Khayelitsha/Mitchell'S Plain Survey," South African Journal of Economics, Economic Society of South Africa, vol. 74(4), pages 702-724, December.
    12. Burns, Justine & Edwards, Lawrence & Pauw, Karl, 2010. "Wage subsidies to combat unemployment and poverty," IFPRI discussion papers 969, International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI).
    13. Dinkelman, Taryn & Ranchhod, Vimal, 2012. "Evidence on the impact of minimum wage laws in an informal sector: Domestic workers in South Africa," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 99(1), pages 27-45.
    14. Delfin Go & Marna Kearney & Vijdan Korman & Sherman Robinson & Karen Thierfelder, 2010. "Wage Subsidy and Labour Market Flexibility in South Africa," Journal of Development Studies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 46(9), pages 1481-1502.
    15. Lynch, Lisa M, 1983. "Job Search and Youth Unemployment," Oxford Economic Papers, Oxford University Press, vol. 35(0), pages 271-282, Supplemen.
    16. James Levinsohn, 2008. "Two Policies to Alleviate Unemployment in South Africa," CID Working Papers 166, Center for International Development at Harvard University.
    17. Nicoli Nattrass & Richard Walker, 2005. "Unemployment And Reservation Wages In Working‐Class Cape Town," South African Journal of Economics, Economic Society of South Africa, vol. 73(3), pages 498-509, September.
    18. Wolpin, Kenneth I, 1987. "Estimating a Structural Search Model: The Transition from School to Work," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 55(4), pages 801-817, July.
    19. Christensen, Bent Jesper & Kiefer, Nicholas M., 1991. "The Exact Likelihood Function for an Empirical Job Search Model," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 7(4), pages 464-486, December.
    20. Justine Burns & Lawrence Edwards & Karl Pauw, 2013. "Revisiting wage subsidies: How pro-poor is a South African wage subsidy likely to be?," Development Southern Africa, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 30(2), pages 186-210, June.
    21. Hamoudi, Amar & Thomas, Duncan, 2014. "Endogenous coresidence and program incidence: South Africa's Old Age Pension," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 109(C), pages 30-37.
    22. Tom Hertz, 2005. "The Effect of Minimum Wages on the Employment and Earnings of South Africa’s Domestic Service Workers," Working Papers 05099, University of Cape Town, Development Policy Research Unit.
    23. Kalie Pauw & Lawrence Edwards, 2006. "Evaluating The General Equilibrium Effects Of A Wage Subsidy Scheme For South Africa," South African Journal of Economics, Economic Society of South Africa, vol. 74(3), pages 442-462, September.
    24. Edmonds, Eric V., 2006. "Child labor and schooling responses to anticipated income in South Africa," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 81(2), pages 386-414, December.
    25. Lancaster, Tony & Chesher, Andrew, 1983. "An Econometric Analysis of Reservation Wages," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 51(6), pages 1661-1676, November.
    26. Amar Hamoudi & Duncan Thomas, 2014. "Endogenous Co-residence and Program Incidence: South Africa's Old Age Pension," NBER Working Papers 19929, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    27. Cameron,A. Colin & Trivedi,Pravin K., 2005. "Microeconometrics," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9780521848053.
    28. Jeremy R. Magruder, 2012. "High Unemployment Yet Few Small Firms: The Role of Centralized Bargaining in South Africa," American Economic Journal: Applied Economics, American Economic Association, vol. 4(3), pages 138-166, July.
    29. repec:pri:rpdevs:dinkelman_ranchhod_minwages_0710 is not listed on IDEAS
    30. Justine Burns & Lawrence Edwards & Karl Pauw, 2010. "Wage Subsidies to Combat Unemployment and Poverty: Assessing South Africa’s Options," SALDRU Working Papers 45, Southern Africa Labour and Development Research Unit, University of Cape Town.
    31. Tom Hertz, 2005. "The Effect of Minimum Wages on the Employment and Earnings of South Africa's Domestic Service Workers," Upjohn Working Papers 05-120, W.E. Upjohn Institute for Employment Research.
    32. Flinn, C. & Heckman, J., 1982. "New methods for analyzing structural models of labor force dynamics," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 18(1), pages 115-168, January.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. David McKenzie, 2017. "How Effective Are Active Labor Market Policies in Developing Countries? A Critical Review of Recent Evidence," The World Bank Research Observer, World Bank, vol. 32(2), pages 127-154.
    2. Amina Ebrahim & Murray Leibbrandt & Vimal Ranchhod, 2017. "The effects of the Employment Tax Incentive on South African employment," WIDER Working Paper Series 005, World Institute for Development Economic Research (UNU-WIDER).
    3. Seán M. Muller, 2021. "Evidence for a YETI? A Cautionary Tale from South Africa's Youth Employment Tax Incentive," Development and Change, International Institute of Social Studies, vol. 52(6), pages 1301-1342, November.
    4. Amina Ebrahim & Murray Leibbrandt & Vimal Ranchhod, 2017. "The effects of the Employment Tax Incentive on South African employment," WIDER Working Paper Series wp-2017-5, World Institute for Development Economic Research (UNU-WIDER).
    5. Beam, Emily A. & Quimbo, Stella, 2021. "The Impact of Short-Term Employment for Low-Income Youth: Experimental Evidence from the Philippines," IZA Discussion Papers 14661, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    6. Pugatch, Todd, 2012. "Bumpy Rides: School to Work Transitions in South Africa," IZA Discussion Papers 6305, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    7. Isaac Marcelin & Daniel Brink & David Oluwatosin Fadiran & Hammed Adedeji Amusa, 2019. "Subsidized labour and firms: Investment, profitability, and leverage," WIDER Working Paper Series wp-2019-50, World Institute for Development Economic Research (UNU-WIDER).
    8. Erten, Bilge & Leight, Jessica & Tregenna, Fiona, 2019. "Trade liberalization and local labor market adjustment in South Africa," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 118(C), pages 448-467.
    9. Armand, Alex & Carneiro, Pedro & Tagliati, Federico & Xia, Yiming, 2020. "Can Subsidized Employment Tackle Long-Term Unemployment? Experimental Evidence from North Macedonia," IZA Discussion Papers 13478, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    10. Bojosi Morule & Konstantin Makrelov, 2019. "The effectiveness of the Employment Tax Incentive August 2019," Occasional Bulletin of Economic Notes 9481, South African Reserve Bank.
    11. Orbeta, Aniceto Jr. C. & Paqueo, Vicente B., 2017. "Countering the Discriminatory Impact of Minimum Wages Against Disadvantaged Workers: Literature Review and Experimental Design Development," Discussion Papers DP 2017-55, Philippine Institute for Development Studies.
    12. Sequeira, Sandra & Banerjee, Abhijit, 2020. "Spatial Mismatches and Imperfect Information in the Job Search," CEPR Discussion Papers 14414, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Keane, Michael P. & Todd, Petra E. & Wolpin, Kenneth I., 2011. "The Structural Estimation of Behavioral Models: Discrete Choice Dynamic Programming Methods and Applications," Handbook of Labor Economics, in: O. Ashenfelter & D. Card (ed.), Handbook of Labor Economics, edition 1, volume 4, chapter 4, pages 331-461, Elsevier.
    2. Björn Nilsson, 2019. "The School-to-Work Transition in Developing Countries," Journal of Development Studies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 55(5), pages 745-764, May.
    3. Todd Pugatch, 2014. "Safety valve or sinkhole? Vocational schooling in South Africa," IZA Journal of Labor & Development, Springer;Forschungsinstitut zur Zukunft der Arbeit GmbH (IZA), vol. 3(1), pages 1-31, December.
    4. Barbara Petrongolo & Christopher Pissarides, 2006. "Scale Effects in Markets with Search," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 116(508), pages 21-44, January.
    5. Fougère, Denis & Pradel, Jacqueline & Roger, Muriel, 2009. "Does the public employment service affect search effort and outcomes?," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 53(7), pages 846-869, October.
    6. Agüero,Jorge M. & Fasola,Eniola, 2022. "Distributional Policies and Social Cohesion in a High-Unemployment Setting," Policy Research Working Paper Series 10103, The World Bank.
    7. Gorgens, Tue, 2002. "Reservation wages and working hours for recently unemployed US women," Labour Economics, Elsevier, vol. 9(1), pages 93-123, February.
    8. Vimal Ranchhod, 2017. "Household responses to the cessation of grant income: The case of South Africa's Old Age Pension," SALDRU Working Papers 213, Southern Africa Labour and Development Research Unit, University of Cape Town.
    9. Haroon Bhorat & Tara Caetano & Benjamin Jourdan & Ravi Kanbur & Christopher Rooney & Benjamin Stanwix & Ingrid Woolard, 2016. "Investigating the Feasibility of a National Minimum Wage for South Africa," Working Papers 201601, University of Cape Town, Development Policy Research Unit.
    10. Burns, Justine & Edwards, Lawrence & Pauw, Karl, 2010. "Wage subsidies to combat unemployment and poverty," IFPRI discussion papers 969, International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI).
    11. van den Berg, Gerard J., 1995. "Explicit expressions for the reservation wage path and the unemployment duration density in nonstationary job search models," Labour Economics, Elsevier, vol. 2(2), pages 187-198, June.
    12. Ronelle Burger & Marisa Coetzee & Carina van der Watt, 2013. "Estimating the benefits of linking ties in a deeply divided society: considering the relationship between domestic workers and their employers in South Africa," Working Papers 18/2013, Stellenbosch University, Department of Economics.
    13. Bart Cockx & Muriel Dejemeppe & Andrey Launov & Bruno Van der Linden, 2018. "Imperfect Monitoring of Job Search: Structural Estimation and Policy Design," Journal of Labor Economics, University of Chicago Press, vol. 36(1), pages 75-120.
    14. Bart COCKX & Muriel DEJEMEPPE & Andrey LAUNOV & Bruno VAN DER LINDEN, 2011. "Monitoring, Sanctions and Front-Loading of Job Search in a Non-Stationary Model," LIDAM Discussion Papers IRES 2011042, Université catholique de Louvain, Institut de Recherches Economiques et Sociales (IRES).
    15. M. Daniele Paserman, 2008. "Job Search and Hyperbolic Discounting: Structural Estimation and Policy Evaluation," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 118(531), pages 1418-1452, August.
    16. van den Berg, Gerard J, 1999. "Empirical Inference with Equilibrium Search Models of the Labour Market," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 109(456), pages 283-306, June.
    17. Herrmann, Tabea & Leckcivilize, Attakrit & Zenker, Juliane, 2021. "The impact of cash transfers on child outcomes in rural Thailand: Evidence from a social pension reform," The Journal of the Economics of Ageing, Elsevier, vol. 19(C).
    18. Neil A. Rankin & Gareth Roberts, 2011. "Youth Unemployment, Firm Size And Reservation Wages In South Africa," South African Journal of Economics, Economic Society of South Africa, vol. 79(2), pages 128-145, June.
    19. Andrey Launov & Klaus Wälde, 2013. "Estimating Incentive And Welfare Effects Of Nonstationary Unemployment Benefits," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 54(4), pages 1159-1198, November.

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • J64 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Mobility, Unemployment, Vacancies, and Immigrant Workers - - - Unemployment: Models, Duration, Incidence, and Job Search
    • J68 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Mobility, Unemployment, Vacancies, and Immigrant Workers - - - Public Policy

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:17248. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: the person in charge (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/nberrus.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.