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Unemployment, Disequilibrium, and the Short Run Phillips Curve: An Econometric Approach

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  • Richard E. Quandt
  • Harvey S. Rosen

Abstract

The paper specifies a disequilibrium model for the aggregate labor market consisting of demand and supply functions for labor, an adjustment equation for wages as well as for prices, a transactions equation and, finally, an equation that relates measured unemployment to vacancies and to excess demand. The model has a more sophisticated treatment of dynamics than earlier disequilibrium models, and uses measured unemployment as an endogenous variable. Two of the error terms are assumed to be serially correlated and the coefficients are estimated by maximum likelihood. The parameter estimates and the goodness-of-fit are satisfactory and the model's implications for the behavior of several important variables are sensible. Excess demand estimates computed in various ways are reasonable. The model is used to estimate the natural rate of unemployment as well as a short run Phillips curve. Finally, the stability properties ofthe model are analyzed by considering the eigenvalues of the system; they are found to have moduli less than one.

Suggested Citation

  • Richard E. Quandt & Harvey S. Rosen, 1985. "Unemployment, Disequilibrium, and the Short Run Phillips Curve: An Econometric Approach," NBER Working Papers 1648, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    • Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:1648
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    1. Laffont, Jean-Jacques & Monfort, Alain, 1979. "Disequilibrium econometrics in dynamic models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 11(2-3), pages 353-361.
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    8. Barro, Robert J & Sahasakul, Chaipat, 1983. "Measuring the Average Marginal Tax Rate from the Individual Income Tax," The Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 56(4), pages 419-452, October.
    9. Quandt, Richard E., 1981. "Autocorrelated errors in simple disequilibrium models," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 7(1), pages 55-61.
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    Cited by:

    1. Pascal Jacquinot & F. Mihoubi, 1996. "Dynamique et hétérogénéité de l’emploi en déséquilibre," L'Actualité Economique, Société Canadienne de Science Economique, vol. 72(2), pages 113-148.
    2. Kang‐Soek Lee & Richard A. Werner, 2023. "Are lower interest rates really associated with higher growth? New empirical evidence on the interest rate thesis from 19 countries," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 28(4), pages 3960-3975, October.
    3. Araujo, Ricardo Azevedo & Loureiro, Paulo Roberto & Souza, Nathalia Almeida, 2011. "An Empirical Evaluation of an Evolutionary Game Theory Model of the Labor Market," MPRA Paper 30408, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    4. Quandt, Richard E & Rosen, Harvey S, 1989. "Endogenous Output in an Aggregate Model of the Labor Market," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 71(3), pages 394-400, August.
    5. Carmen Aina & Fernanda Mazzotta & Lavinia Parisi, 2010. "Do Flexible Employment Contracts Change Household Income Differences in Italy?," Working Papers 129, SEMEQ Department - Faculty of Economics - University of Eastern Piedmont.
    6. Siebeck, Karin & Reimers, Hans-Eggert, 1987. "Ein einfaches kontinuierliches Anpassungsmodell für den Arbeits- und Gütermarkt: Einige empirische Befunde für die Bundesrepublik Deutschland von 1965 bis 1985," Discussion Papers, Series I 234, University of Konstanz, Department of Economics.
    7. Holt, Matthew T., "undated". "A Multi-Market Bounded Prices Model Under Rational Expectations: The Case of Corn and Soybeans in the U.S," 1991 Annual Meeting, August 4-7, Manhattan, Kansas 271199, American Agricultural Economics Association (New Name 2008: Agricultural and Applied Economics Association).

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