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A Mathematical Model for Estimating the Number of Health Workers Required for Universal Antiretroviral Treatment

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  • Till Bärnighausen
  • David E. Bloom
  • Salal Humair

Abstract

Despite recent international efforts to increase antiretroviral treatment (ART) coverage, it is estimated that more than 5 million people who need ART in developing countries do not receive such treatment. Shortages of human resources to treat HIV/AIDS (HRHA) are one of the main constraints to scaling up ART. We develop a discrete-time Markovian model to project the numbers of HRHA required to achieve universal ART coverage, taking into account the positive feedback from HRHA numbers to future HRHA need. Feedback occurs because ART is effective in prolonging the lives of HIV-positive people who need treatment, so that an increase in the number of people receiving treatment leads to an increase in the number of people needing it in future periods. We investigate the steady-state behavior of our model and apply it to different regions in the developing world. We find that taking into account the feedback from the current supply of HRHA to the future HRHA need substantially increases the projected numbers of HRHA required to achieve universal ART coverage. We discuss the policy implications of our model.

Suggested Citation

  • Till Bärnighausen & David E. Bloom & Salal Humair, 2009. "A Mathematical Model for Estimating the Number of Health Workers Required for Universal Antiretroviral Treatment," NBER Working Papers 15517, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    • Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:15517
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Gorik Ooms & Wim Van Damme & Marleen Temmerman, 2007. "Medicines without Doctors: Why the Global Fund Must Fund Salaries of Health Workers to Expand AIDS Treatment," PLOS Medicine, Public Library of Science, vol. 4(4), pages 1-4, April.
    2. Till Bärnighausen & David E. Bloom, 2008. "Financial incentives for return of service in underserved areas: a systematic review," PGDA Working Papers 3608, Program on the Global Demography of Aging.
    3. World Bank, 2007. "World Development Indicators 2007," World Bank Publications - Books, The World Bank Group, number 8150, December.
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    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • I10 - Health, Education, and Welfare - - Health - - - General
    • I11 - Health, Education, and Welfare - - Health - - - Analysis of Health Care Markets
    • I18 - Health, Education, and Welfare - - Health - - - Government Policy; Regulation; Public Health
    • J20 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demand and Supply of Labor - - - General
    • J21 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demand and Supply of Labor - - - Labor Force and Employment, Size, and Structure

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