Estimating health worker need to provide antiretroviral treatment in the developing world
Despite recent international efforts to increase antiretroviral treatment (ART) coverage, more than 5 million people who need ART in developing countries do not receive such treatment. Shortages of human resources to treat HIV/AIDS (referred to herein as HRHA) are one of the main constraints to further scaling up ART. Planning expansion of ART depends on the ability to predict how many HRHA will be needed in the future. We investigate whether taking into account positive feedback from the current supply of HRHA to future HRHA need substantially alters predictions. This feedback occurs because an increase in the number of HRHA implies an increase in the number of individuals receiving ART and – because ART is a lifelong treatment and is effective in prolonging the lives of HIV-positive people – a rise over time in the number of people requiring ART.
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