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Is Lottery Gambling Addictive?

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  • Jonathan Guryan
  • Melissa Schettini Kearney

Abstract

We present an empirical test for the addictiveness of lottery gambling. To distinguish state dependence from serial correlation, we exploit an exogenous shock to local market consumption of lottery gambling. We use the sale of a winning ticket in the zip code, the location of which is random conditional on sales, as an instrument for present consumption and test for a causal relationship between present and future consumption. This test of addiction is based on the definition of addiction commonly used in the economics literature. It has two key advantages over previous tests for addiction. First, our test is unique in being based on an observed increase in consumption coming from a randomly assigned shock. Second, our approach estimates the time path of persistence non-parametrically. Our data from the Texas State Lottery suggests that after 6 months, roughly half of the initial increase in lottery consumption is maintained. After 18 months, roughly 40 percent of the initial shock persists, though estimates become less precise. These estimates provide an upper bound on the degree of addictiveness in lottery gambling. They also highlight the potential effectiveness of innovations and advertising campaigns designed to increase lottery gambling.

Suggested Citation

  • Jonathan Guryan & Melissa Schettini Kearney, 2009. "Is Lottery Gambling Addictive?," NBER Working Papers 14742, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    • Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:14742
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    1. Kent R. Grote & Victor A. Matheson, 2014. "The Impact of State Lotteries and Casinos on State Bankruptcy Filings," Growth and Change, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 45(1), pages 121-135, March.
    2. Melisa Bubonya & David P. Byrne, 2020. "Supplying Slot Machines to the Poor," Southern Economic Journal, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 86(3), pages 1081-1109, January.
    3. Shawn Cole & Benjamin Iverson & Peter Tufano, 2022. "Can Gambling Increase Savings? Empirical Evidence on Prize-Linked Savings Accounts," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 68(5), pages 3282-3308, May.
    4. Aidan R. Vining & David L. Weimer, 2013. "An assessment of important issues concerning the application of benefit–cost analysis to social policy," Chapters, in: Scott O. Farrow & Richard Zerbe, Jr. (ed.), Principles and Standards for Benefit–Cost Analysis, chapter 1, pages 25-62, Edward Elgar Publishing.
    5. Agrawal, David R. & Trandel, Gregory A., 2019. "Dynamics of policy adoption with state dependence," Regional Science and Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 79(C).
    6. Avery Haviv & Yufeng Huang & Nan Li, 2020. "Intertemporal Demand Spillover Effects on Video Game Platforms," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 66(10), pages 4788-4807, October.
    7. Soo Hong Chew & Haoming Liu & Alberto Salvo, 2021. "Adversity-hope hypothesis: Air pollution raises lottery demand in China," Journal of Risk and Uncertainty, Springer, vol. 62(3), pages 247-280, June.
    8. Kent Grote & Victor Matheson, 2011. "The Economics of Lotteries: An Annotated Bibliography," Working Papers 1110, College of the Holy Cross, Department of Economics.
    9. De Paola, Maria & Scoppa, Vincenzo, 2014. "Media exposure and individual choices: Evidence from lottery players," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 38(C), pages 385-391.
    10. Brad Humphreys & Levi Perez, 2012. "Network externalities in consumer spending on lottery games: evidence from Spain," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 42(3), pages 929-945, June.
    11. Edmund R. Thompson & Gerard P. Prendergast & Gerard H. Dericks, 2021. "Personality, Luck Beliefs, and (Non-?) Problem Lottery Gambling," Applied Research in Quality of Life, Springer;International Society for Quality-of-Life Studies, vol. 16(2), pages 703-722, April.
    12. Richard A. Dunn & Michael A. Trousdale, 2015. "Estimating the Demand for Lottery Gambling," Public Finance Review, , vol. 43(6), pages 691-716, November.

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    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • D14 - Microeconomics - - Household Behavior - - - Household Saving; Personal Finance
    • D62 - Microeconomics - - Welfare Economics - - - Externalities
    • D81 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - Criteria for Decision-Making under Risk and Uncertainty
    • H42 - Public Economics - - Publicly Provided Goods - - - Publicly Provided Private Goods
    • H71 - Public Economics - - State and Local Government; Intergovernmental Relations - - - State and Local Taxation, Subsidies, and Revenue

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