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Interest Rate Rules, Inflation Stabilization, and Imperfect Credibility: The Small Open Economy Case

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  • Guillermo A. Calvo

Abstract

The paper examines the robustness of Interest Rate Rules, IRRs, in the context of an imperfectly credible stabilization program, closely following the format of much of the literature in open-economy models, e.g., Calvo and Végh (1993 and 1999). A basic result is that IRRs, like Exchange Rate Based Stabilization, ERBS, programs, could give rise to macroeconomic distortion, e.g., underutilization of capacity and real exchange rate misalignment. However, while under imperfect credibility EBRS is associated with overheating and current account deficits, IRRs give rise to somewhat opposite results. Moreover, the paper shows that popular policies to counteract misalignment, like Strategic Foreign Exchange Market Intervention or Controls on International Capital Mobility may not be effective or could even become counterproductive. The bottom line is that the greater exchange rate flexibility granted by IRRs is by far not a sure shot against the macroeconomic costs infringed by imperfect credibility.

Suggested Citation

  • Guillermo A. Calvo, 2007. "Interest Rate Rules, Inflation Stabilization, and Imperfect Credibility: The Small Open Economy Case," NBER Working Papers 13177, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  • Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:13177
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Calvo, Guillermo A. & Drazen, Allan, 1998. "Uncertain Duration Of Reform," Macroeconomic Dynamics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 2(4), pages 443-455, December.
    2. Luis-Gonzalo Llosa & Vicente Tuesta, 2008. "Determinacy and Learnability of Monetary Policy Rules in Small Open Economies," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 40(5), pages 1033-1063, August.
    3. Krugman, Paul, 1979. "A Model of Balance-of-Payments Crises," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 11(3), pages 311-325, August.
    4. Natalia Ramírez Bustamante & Ana Maria Tribin Uribe & Carmiña O. Vargas, 2015. "Maternity and Labor Markets: Impact of Legislation in Colombia," Borradores de Economia 870, Banco de la Republica de Colombia.
    5. Guillermo A. Calvo, 2005. "Emerging Capital Markets in Turmoil: Bad Luck or Bad Policy?," MIT Press Books, The MIT Press, edition 1, volume 1, number 0262033348, December.
    6. Calvo, Guillermo A. & Vegh, Carlos A., 1999. "Inflation stabilization and bop crises in developing countries," Handbook of Macroeconomics, in: J. B. Taylor & M. Woodford (ed.), Handbook of Macroeconomics, edition 1, volume 1, chapter 24, pages 1531-1614, Elsevier.
    7. Calvo, Guillermo A., 1983. "Staggered prices in a utility-maximizing framework," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 12(3), pages 383-398, September.
    8. Luis-Gonzalo Llosa & Vicente Tuesta, 2008. "Determinacy and Learnability of Monetary Policy Rules in Small Open Economies," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 40(5), pages 1033-1063, 08.
    9. Buffie, Edward F. & Atolia, Manoj, 2012. "Resurrecting the weak credibility hypothesis in models of exchange-rate-based stabilization," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 56(3), pages 361-372.
    10. Calvo, Guillermo A., 2006. "Monetary Policy Challenges in Emerging Markets: Sudden Stop, Liability Dollarization, and Lender of Last Resort," IDB Publications (Working Papers) 1947, Inter-American Development Bank.
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    Cited by:

    1. Shigeto Kitano, 2016. "Predetermined exchange rate, monetary targeting, and inflation targeting regimes," International Journal of Economic Theory, The International Society for Economic Theory, vol. 12(3), pages 233-256, September.
    2. Guillermo A. Calvo, 2012. "The Price Theory of Money, Prospero's Liquidity Trap, and Sudden Stop: Back to Basics and Back," NBER Working Papers 18285, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    3. Eric M. Leeper, 2009. "Anchors Away: How Fiscal Policy Can Undermine “Good” Monetary Policy," CAEPR Working Papers 2009-021, Center for Applied Economics and Policy Research, Department of Economics, Indiana University Bloomington.
    4. Eric M. Leeper, 2011. "Anchors Aweigh: How Fiscal Policy Can Undermine “Good” Monetary Policy," Central Banking, Analysis, and Economic Policies Book Series, in: Luis Felipe Céspedes & Roberto Chang & Diego Saravia (ed.),Monetary Policy under Financial Turbulence, edition 1, volume 16, chapter 11, pages 411-453, Central Bank of Chile.

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    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy
    • E58 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Central Banks and Their Policies
    • F32 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Current Account Adjustment; Short-term Capital Movements
    • F41 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Open Economy Macroeconomics

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