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Markov Perfect Industry Dynamics with Many Firms

  • Gabriel Weintraub
  • C. Lanier Benkard
  • Ben Van Roy
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    We propose an approximation method for analyzing Ericson and Pakes (1995)-style dynamic models of imperfect competition. We develop a simple algorithm for computing an ``oblivious equilibrium,'' in which each firm is assumed to make decisions based only on its own state and knowledge of the long run average industry state, but where firms ignore current information about competitors' states. We prove that, as the market becomes large, if the equilibrium distribution of firm states obeys a certain ``light-tail'' condition, then oblivious equilibria closely approximate Markov perfect equilibria. We develop bounds that can be computed to assess the accuracy of the approximation for any given applied problem. Through computational experiments, we find that the method often generates useful approximations for industries with hundreds of firms and in some cases even tens of firms.

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    File URL: http://www.nber.org/papers/w11900.pdf
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    Paper provided by National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc in its series NBER Working Papers with number 11900.

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    Date of creation: Dec 2005
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    Publication status: published as Weintraub, Gabriel, C. Lanier Benkard and Ben Van Roy. "Markov Perfect Industry Dynamics with Many Firms." Econometrica (Nov 2008): 1375-1411.
    Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:11900
    Note: IO PR
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    1. Ariel Pakes, 2000. "A Framework for Applied Dynamic Analysis in I.O," NBER Working Papers 8024, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    2. Berry, Steven & Pakes, Ariel, 1993. "Some Applications and Limitations of Recent Advances in Empirical Industrial Organization: Merger Analysis," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 83(2), pages 247-52, May.
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    4. de Roos, Nicolas, 2004. "A model of collusion timing," International Journal of Industrial Organization, Elsevier, vol. 22(3), pages 351-387, March.
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    7. Melitz, Marc J, 2002. "The Impact of Trade on Intra-Industry Reallocations and Aggregate Industry Productivity," CEPR Discussion Papers 3381, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    8. Ronald L. Goettler & Christine A. Parlour, 2004. "Equilibrium in a Dynamic Limit Order Market," 2004 Meeting Papers 757, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    9. Jovanovic, Boyan & Rosenthal, Robert W., 1986. "Anonymous Sequential Games," Working Papers 86-12, C.V. Starr Center for Applied Economics, New York University.
    10. Klette, Tor Jakob & Kortum, Samuel S, 2002. "Innovating Firms and Aggregate Innovation," CEPR Discussion Papers 3248, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    11. David Besanko & Ulrich Doraszelski & Yaroslav Kryukov & Mark Satterthwaite, 2007. "Learning-by-Doing, Organizational Forgetting, and Industry Dynamics," Levine's Bibliography 321307000000000903, UCLA Department of Economics.
    12. Gautam Gowrisankaran & Robert J. Town, 1997. "Dynamic Equilibrium in the Hospital Industry," Journal of Economics & Management Strategy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 6(1), pages 45-74, 03.
    13. Ericson, Richard & Pakes, Ariel, 1995. "Markov-Perfect Industry Dynamics: A Framework for Empirical Work," Review of Economic Studies, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 62(1), pages 53-82, January.
    14. Caplin, Andrew & Nalebuff, Barry, 1991. "Aggregation and Imperfect Competition: On the Existence of Equilibrium," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 59(1), pages 25-59, January.
    15. repec:rus:hseeco:122439 is not listed on IDEAS
    16. Krusell, P & Smith Jr, A-A, 1995. "Income and Wealth Heterogeneity in the Macroeconomic," RCER Working Papers 399, University of Rochester - Center for Economic Research (RCER).
    17. Minjae Song, 2011. "A Dynamic Analysis Of Cooperative Research In The Semiconductor Industry," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 52(4), pages 1157-1177, November.
    18. C. Lanier Benkard, 2004. "A Dynamic Analysis of the Market for Wide-Bodied Commercial Aircraft," Review of Economic Studies, Oxford University Press, vol. 71(3), pages 581-611.
    19. Novshek, William & Sonnenschein, Hugo, 1978. "Cournot and Walras equilibrium," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 19(2), pages 223-266, December.
    20. Patricia Langohr, 2003. "Competitive Convergence and Divergence: Capability and Position Dynamics," Computing in Economics and Finance 2003 229, Society for Computational Economics.
    21. C. Lanier Benkard, 2004. "A Dynamic Analysis of the Market for Wide-Bodied Commercial Aircraft," Review of Economic Studies, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 71, pages 581-611, 07.
    22. Ulrich Doraszelski & Mark Satterthwaite, 2003. "Foundations of Markov-Perfect Industry Dynamics. Existence, Purification, and Multiplicity," Discussion Papers 1383, Northwestern University, Center for Mathematical Studies in Economics and Management Science.
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