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Markov perfect industry dynamics with many firms

  • Gabriel Y. Weintraub
  • C. Lanier Benkard
  • Benjamin Van Roy
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    We propose an approximation method for analyzing Ericson and Pakes (1995)-style dynamic models of imperfect competition. We develop a simple algorithm for computing an "oblivious equilibrium," in which each firm is assumed to make decisions based only on its own state and knowledge of the long run average industry state, but where firms ignore current information about competitors' states. We prove that, as the market becomes large, if the equilibrium distribution of firm states obeys a certain "lighttail" condition, then oblivious equilibria closely approximate Markov perfect equilibria. We develop bounds that can be computed to assess the accuracy of the approximation for any given applied problem. Through computational experiments, we find that the method often generates useful approximations for industries with hundreds of firms and in some cases even tens of firms.

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    File URL: http://www.frbsf.org/economic-research/files/wp05-23bk.pdf
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    Paper provided by Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco in its series Working Paper Series with number 2005-23.

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    Date of creation: 2005
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    Handle: RePEc:fip:fedfwp:2005-23
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    1. Caplin, Andrew & Nalebuff, Barry, 1991. "Aggregation and Imperfect Competition: On the Existence of Equilibrium," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 59(1), pages 25-59, January.
    2. Besanko, David & Doraszelski, Ulrich & Kryukov, Yaroslav & Satterthwaite, Mark, 2007. "Learning-by-Doing, Organizational Forgetting and Industry Dynamics," CEPR Discussion Papers 6160, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    3. Krusell, P & Smith Jr, A-A, 1995. "Income and Wealth Heterogeneity in the Macroeconomic," RCER Working Papers 399, University of Rochester - Center for Economic Research (RCER).
    4. de Roos, Nicolas, 2004. "A model of collusion timing," International Journal of Industrial Organization, Elsevier, vol. 22(3), pages 351-387, March.
    5. Klette, Tor Jakob & Kortum, Samuel S, 2002. "Innovating Firms and Aggregate Innovation," CEPR Discussion Papers 3248, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    6. Marc J. Melitz, 2003. "The Impact of Trade on Intra-Industry Reallocations and Aggregate Industry Productivity," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 71(6), pages 1695-1725, November.
    7. Ariel Pakes, 2000. "A Framework for Applied Dynamic Analysis in I.O," NBER Working Papers 8024, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    8. Kenneth Judd & Karl Schmedders & Sevin Yeltekin, . "Optimal Rules for Patent Races," GSIA Working Papers 2006-E37, Carnegie Mellon University, Tepper School of Business.
    9. Shaked, Avner & Sutton, John, 1987. "Product Differentiation and Industrial Structure," Journal of Industrial Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 36(2), pages 131-46, December.
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    11. Fudenberg, Drew & Levine, David, 1986. "Limit games and limit equilibria," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 38(2), pages 261-279, April.
    12. repec:rus:hseeco:122439 is not listed on IDEAS
    13. C. Lanier Benkard, 2004. "A Dynamic Analysis of the Market for Wide-Bodied Commercial Aircraft," Review of Economic Studies, Oxford University Press, vol. 71(3), pages 581-611.
    14. Gautam Gowrisankaran & Robert J. Town, 1997. "Dynamic Equilibrium in the Hospital Industry," Journal of Economics & Management Strategy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 6(1), pages 45-74, 03.
    15. Berry, Steven & Pakes, Ariel, 1993. "Some Applications and Limitations of Recent Advances in Empirical Industrial Organization: Merger Analysis," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 83(2), pages 247-52, May.
    16. Ulrich Doraszelski & Mark Satterthwaite, 2003. "Foundations of Markov-Perfect Industry Dynamics. Existence, Purification, and Multiplicity," Discussion Papers 1383, Northwestern University, Center for Mathematical Studies in Economics and Management Science.
    17. Ronald L. Goettler & Christine A. Parlour, 2004. "Equilibrium in a Dynamic Limit Order Market," 2004 Meeting Papers 757, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    18. Jovanovic, Boyan & Rosenthal, Robert W., 1986. "Anonymous Sequential Games," Working Papers 86-12, C.V. Starr Center for Applied Economics, New York University.
    19. Patricia Langohr, 2003. "Competitive Convergence and Divergence: Capability and Position Dynamics," Computing in Economics and Finance 2003 229, Society for Computational Economics.
    20. Richard Ericson & Ariel Pakes, 1995. "Markov-Perfect Industry Dynamics: A Framework for Empirical Work," Review of Economic Studies, Oxford University Press, vol. 62(1), pages 53-82.
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