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Markov perfect industry dynamics with many firms

  • Gabriel Y. Weintraub
  • C. Lanier Benkard
  • Benjamin Van Roy
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    We propose an approximation method for analyzing Ericson and Pakes (1995)-style dynamic models of imperfect competition. We develop a simple algorithm for computing an "oblivious equilibrium," in which each firm is assumed to make decisions based only on its own state and knowledge of the long run average industry state, but where firms ignore current information about competitors' states. We prove that, as the market becomes large, if the equilibrium distribution of firm states obeys a certain "lighttail" condition, then oblivious equilibria closely approximate Markov perfect equilibria. We develop bounds that can be computed to assess the accuracy of the approximation for any given applied problem. Through computational experiments, we find that the method often generates useful approximations for industries with hundreds of firms and in some cases even tens of firms.

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    File URL: http://www.frbsf.org/economic-research/files/wp05-23bk.pdf
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    Paper provided by Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco in its series Working Paper Series with number 2005-23.

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    Date of creation: 2005
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    Handle: RePEc:fip:fedfwp:2005-23
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    1. Ariel Pakes, 2000. "A Framework for Applied Dynamic Analysis in I.O," NBER Working Papers 8024, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    2. Per Krusell & Anthony A. Smith & Jr., 1998. "Income and Wealth Heterogeneity in the Macroeconomy," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 106(5), pages 867-896, October.
    3. Andrew Caplin & Barry Nalebuff, 1990. "Aggregation and Imperfect Competition: On the Existence of Equilibrium," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 937, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University.
    4. Fudenberg, Drew & Levine, David, 1986. "Limit Games and Limit Equilibria," Scholarly Articles 3350443, Harvard University Department of Economics.
    5. By Kenneth L. Judd & Karl Schmedders & ┼×evin Yeltekin, 2012. "Optimal Rules For Patent Races," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 53(1), pages 23-52, 02.
    6. Patricia Langohr, 2003. "Competitive Convergence and Divergence: Capability and Position Dynamics," Computing in Economics and Finance 2003 229, Society for Computational Economics.
    7. de Roos, Nicolas, 2004. "A model of collusion timing," International Journal of Industrial Organization, Elsevier, vol. 22(3), pages 351-387, March.
    8. Marc J. Melitz, 2003. "The Impact of Trade on Intra-Industry Reallocations and Aggregate Industry Productivity," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 71(6), pages 1695-1725, November.
    9. Jovanovic, Boyan & Rosenthal, Robert W., 1986. "Anonymous Sequential Games," Working Papers 86-12, C.V. Starr Center for Applied Economics, New York University.
    10. Novshek, William & Sonnenschein, Hugo, 1978. "Cournot and Walras equilibrium," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 19(2), pages 223-266, December.
    11. Ulrich Doraszelski & Mark Satterthwaite, 2003. "Foundations of Markov-Perfect Industry Dynamics. Existence, Purification, and Multiplicity," Discussion Papers 1383, Northwestern University, Center for Mathematical Studies in Economics and Management Science.
    12. C. Lanier Benkard, 2004. "A Dynamic Analysis of the Market for Wide-Bodied Commercial Aircraft," Review of Economic Studies, Oxford University Press, vol. 71(3), pages 581-611.
    13. C. Lanier Benkard, 2004. "A Dynamic Analysis of the Market for Wide-Bodied Commercial Aircraft," Review of Economic Studies, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 71, pages 581-611, 07.
    14. Klette, Tor Jakob & Kortum, Samuel, 2002. "Innovating Firms and Aggregate Innovation," Memorandum 02/2002, Oslo University, Department of Economics.
    15. David Besanko & Ulrich Doraszelski & Yaroslav Kryukov & Mark Satterthwaite, 2007. "Learning-by-Doing, Organizational Forgetting, and Industry Dynamics," Levine's Bibliography 321307000000000903, UCLA Department of Economics.
    16. Minjae Song, 2011. "A Dynamic Analysis Of Cooperative Research In The Semiconductor Industry," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 52(4), pages 1157-1177, November.
    17. repec:rus:hseeco:122439 is not listed on IDEAS
    18. Gautam Gowrisankaran & Robert J. Town, 1997. "Dynamic Equilibrium in the Hospital Industry," Journal of Economics & Management Strategy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 6(1), pages 45-74, 03.
    19. Ericson, Richard & Pakes, Ariel, 1995. "Markov-Perfect Industry Dynamics: A Framework for Empirical Work," Review of Economic Studies, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 62(1), pages 53-82, January.
    20. Berry, Steven & Pakes, Ariel, 1993. "Some Applications and Limitations of Recent Advances in Empirical Industrial Organization: Merger Analysis," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 83(2), pages 247-52, May.
    21. Shaked, Avner & Sutton, John, 1987. "Product Differentiation and Industrial Structure," Journal of Industrial Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 36(2), pages 131-46, December.
    22. Ronald L. Goettler & Christine A. Parlour, 2004. "Equilibrium in a Dynamic Limit Order Market," 2004 Meeting Papers 757, Society for Economic Dynamics.
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