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Demography and Equity Premium


  • Wolfgang Kuhle

    () (Munich Center for the Economics of Aging (MEA))


This article comprises a tractable two-generations-overlapping, stochastic, neoclassical production economy, where government bonds are in positive net supply. In this framework we show that the entrance of larger (smaller) cohorts into the labor market will lead to an increase (decrease) in the risky and the riskless rate and to an increase (decrease) in the expected equity premium.

Suggested Citation

  • Wolfgang Kuhle, 2008. "Demography and Equity Premium," MEA discussion paper series 08157, Munich Center for the Economics of Aging (MEA) at the Max Planck Institute for Social Law and Social Policy.
  • Handle: RePEc:mea:meawpa:08157

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    References listed on IDEAS

    1. Andrew B. Abel, 2003. "The Effects of a Baby Boom on Stock Prices and Capital Accumulation in the Presence of Social Security," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 71(2), pages 551-578, March.
    2. Börsch-Supan, Axel & Ludwig, Alexander & Sommer, Mathias, 2005. "Aging and Asset Prices," Sonderforschungsbereich 504 Publications 07-29, Sonderforschungsbereich 504, Universität Mannheim;Sonderforschungsbereich 504, University of Mannheim.
    3. Andrew B. Abel, 2001. "The Effects of Investing Social Security Funds in the Stock Market When Fixed Costs Prevent Some Households from Holding Stocks," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 91(1), pages 128-148, March.
    4. Robin Brooks, 2004. "The Equity Premium and the Baby Boom," Econometric Society 2004 North American Winter Meetings 155, Econometric Society.
    5. Author-Name: John Geanakoplos & Michael Magill & Martine Quinzii, 2004. "Demography and the Long-Run Predictability of the Stock Market," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 35(1), pages 241-326.
    6. Paul A. Samuelson, 2011. "Lifetime Portfolio Selection by Dynamic Stochastic Programming," World Scientific Book Chapters,in: THE KELLY CAPITAL GROWTH INVESTMENT CRITERION THEORY and PRACTICE, chapter 31, pages 465-472 World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd..
    7. Robin Brooks, 2002. "Asset-Market Effects of the Baby Boom and Social-Security Reform," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 92(2), pages 402-406, May.
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    Cited by:

    1. Geppert, Christian & Ludwig, Alexander & Abiry, Raphael, 1970. "Secular Stagnation? Growth, Asset Returns and Welfare in the Next Decades: First Results," MEA discussion paper series 201605, Munich Center for the Economics of Aging (MEA) at the Max Planck Institute for Social Law and Social Policy.
    2. Mosolygó, Zsuzsa, 2010. "A tőkefedezeti rendszer alapkérdéseinek új megközelítése
      [A new approach to the basic issues raised by the PAYE system]
      ," Közgazdasági Szemle (Economic Review - monthly of the Hungarian Academy of Sciences), Közgazdasági Szemle Alapítvány (Economic Review Foundation), vol. 0(7), pages 612-633.
    3. Ludwig, Alexander & Geppert, Christian & Abiry, Raphael, 2016. "Secular Stagnation? Growth, Asset Returns and Welfare in the Next Decades," Annual Conference 2016 (Augsburg): Demographic Change 145764, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association.

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