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Population Aging and the Rise of Populism in Europe

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Abstract

This paper establishes population aging as a driving force of populism in a multilevel regression analysis of individuals living in European countries over the period 2002-2019. The focus is on the effect of ``aggregate'' population aging as opposed to individual aging. Populism expressed as populist attitudes is measured with individual-level data of nine consecutive rounds of the European Social Survey. We use data on voting for populist parties, political trust, and attitudes towards immigration. Our findings suggest an association of population aging with a declining electoral turnout, a higher support for populist parties, lower trust in political institutions, and a rise in anti-immigrant hostility. These effects are observed across both young and elderly voters.

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  • Despina Gavresi & Anastasia Litina, 2024. "Population Aging and the Rise of Populism in Europe," Discussion Paper Series 2024_07, Department of Economics, University of Macedonia, revised Jun 2024.
    • Handle: RePEc:mcd:mcddps:2024_07
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    1. Gavresi, Despina & Litina, Anastasia, 2023. "Past exposure to macroeconomic shocks and populist attitudes in Europe," Journal of Comparative Economics, Elsevier, vol. 51(3), pages 989-1010.
    2. Dani Rodrik, 2018. "Populism and the economics of globalization," Journal of International Business Policy, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 1(1), pages 12-33, June.
    3. Sascha O Becker & Thiemo Fetzer & Dennis Novy, 2017. "Who voted for Brexit? A comprehensive district-level analysis," Economic Policy, CEPR, CESifo, Sciences Po;CES;MSH, vol. 32(92), pages 601-650.
    4. Tella, Rafael Di & Rotemberg, Julio J., 2018. "Populism and the return of the “Paranoid Style”: Some evidence and a simple model of demand for incompetence as insurance against elite betrayal," Journal of Comparative Economics, Elsevier, vol. 46(4), pages 988-1005.
    5. Ulrike Malmendier, 2021. "FBBVA Lecture 2020: Exposure, Experience, and Expertise: Why Personal Histories Matter in Economics [Macroeconomic Experiences and Risk Taking of Euro Area Households]," Journal of the European Economic Association, European Economic Association, vol. 19(6), pages 2857-2894.
    6. Ulrike Malmendier, 2021. "Exposure, Experience, and Expertise: Why Personal Histories Matter in Economics," NBER Working Papers 29336, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Population Aging; Populist Voting; Immigrant Attitudes; Trust;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • D72 - Microeconomics - - Analysis of Collective Decision-Making - - - Political Processes: Rent-seeking, Lobbying, Elections, Legislatures, and Voting Behavior
    • J10 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics - - - General
    • P00 - Political Economy and Comparative Economic Systems - - General - - - General
    • Z13 - Other Special Topics - - Cultural Economics - - - Economic Sociology; Economic Anthropology; Language; Social and Economic Stratification

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