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The Non-Linear Dynamics of Societal Aging on Political Behavior

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This paper identifies societal aging as a key driver of populism in Europe, emphasizing the non-linear relationship between the two. Using multilevel regression analysis on individuals from 29 European countries between 2002 and 2021, we analyze how societal aging ; measured by the age dependency ratio and its square shapes populist attitudes. Drawing on ten rounds of the European Social Survey, we examine voting, trust in political institutions, and immigration attitudes. Our findings reveal a U-shaped relationship between societal aging and political behaviour. We argue that demographic structure of society influences political attitudes beyond individual aging. The results highlight the importance of accounting for non-linear demographic effects when analyzing political behavior in aging societies.

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  • Despina Gavresi & Anastasia Litina & Sofia Tsitou, 2025. "The Non-Linear Dynamics of Societal Aging on Political Behavior," Discussion Paper Series 2025_05, Department of Economics, University of Macedonia, revised May 2025.
    • Handle: RePEc:mcd:mcddps:2025_05
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