Estimating and Predicting Household Expenditures and Income Distributions
A reliable prediction of unconditional welfare distributions, like income or consumption, is essential for welfare analysis, and in particular for inequality, poverty or development studies. Where observations of expenditures or income are missing, the mean prediction based on available covariates is not just a poor estimator of the unconditional distribution; it fails to predict the required information about tails and quantiles. A new estimation method is introduced which can be combined with any mean prediction model. It is used to calculate the income distribution of a survey based on subsample information, to estimate the unconditional income distribution for the non-responding households, and to predict the household expenditures of a future panel wave. It allows for imputing welfare distributions for a census from a survey or for synthetic populations under specific scenarios. Further inference is straight-forward, including prediction of Lorenz curves, indexes like the Gini, or distribution quantiles, including confidence intervals.
|Date of creation:||2011|
|Publication status:||Forthcoming in|
|Contact details of provider:|| Postal: Universitätsstraße 25, 35037 Marburg|
Web page: http://www.uni-marburg.de/fb02/
More information through EDIRC
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Carlo Azzarri & Gero Carletto & Benjamin Davis & Alberto Zezza, 2006.
"Monitoring Poverty Without Consumption Data : An Application Using the Albania Panel Survey,"
Eastern European Economics,
Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 44(1), pages 59-82, February.
- Carlo Azzarri & Gero Carletto & Benjamin Davis & Alberto Zezza, 2006. "Monitoring Poverty Without Consumption Data : An Application Using the Albania Panel Survey," Eastern European Economics, M.E. Sharpe, Inc., vol. 44(1), pages 59-82, February.
- Carlo Azzarri & Gero Carletto & Benjamin Davis & Alberto Zezza, 2005. "Monitoring Poverty without Consumption Data: An application using the Albania panel survey," Working Papers 05-01, Agricultural and Development Economics Division of the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO - ESA).
- James J. Heckman, 1976. "The Common Structure of Statistical Models of Truncation, Sample Selection and Limited Dependent Variables and a Simple Estimator for Such Models," NBER Chapters,in: Annals of Economic and Social Measurement, Volume 5, number 4, pages 475-492 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Chris Elbers & Jean O. Lanjouw & Peter Lanjouw, 2003. "Micro--Level Estimation of Poverty and Inequality," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 71(1), pages 355-364, January.
- Ravallion, Martin, 2001. "Growth, Inequality and Poverty: Looking Beyond Averages," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 29(11), pages 1803-1815, November.
- Ravallion, Martin, 2001. "Growth, inequality, and poverty : looking beyond averages," Policy Research Working Paper Series 2558, The World Bank.
- Patrick Royston, 2004. "Multiple imputation of missing values," Stata Journal, StataCorp LP, vol. 4(3), pages 227-241, September.
- Hyman, Glenn & Larrea, Carlos & Farrow, Andrew, 2005. "Methods, results and policy implications of poverty and food security mapping assessments," Food Policy, Elsevier, vol. 30(5-6), pages 453-460.
- Sahn, David E. & Stifel, David C., 2000. "Poverty Comparisons Over Time and Across Countries in Africa," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 28(12), pages 2123-2155, December.
- Koenker,Roger, 2005. "Quantile Regression," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9780521845731, November.
- Roger Koenker & Kevin F. Hallock, 2001. "Quantile Regression," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 15(4), pages 143-156, Fall.
- Koenker,Roger, 2005. "Quantile Regression," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9780521608275, Diciembre.
- H rdle, Wolfgang & Huet, Sylvie & Mammen, Enno & Sperlich, Stefan, 2004. "Bootstrap Inference In Semiparametric Generalized Additive Models," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 20(02), pages 265-300, April.
- Sperlich, Stefan & Mammen, Enno & Huet, Sylvie & Hardle, Wolfgang, 2000. "Bootstrap inference in semiparametric generalized additive models," DES - Working Papers. Statistics and Econometrics. WS 10079, Universidad Carlos III de Madrid. Departamento de Estadística.
- Härdle, Wolfgang & Huet, Sylvie & Mammen, Enno & Sperlich, Stefan, 2001. "Bootstrap Inference in Semiparametric Generalized Additive Models," Finance Working Papers 01-3, University of Aarhus, Aarhus School of Business, Department of Business Studies.
- Sergio Firpo & Nicole M. Fortin & Thomas Lemieux, 2009. "Unconditional Quantile Regressions," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 77(3), pages 953-973, 05.
- SErgio Firpo & Nicole M. Fortin & Thomas Lemieux, 2006. "Unconditional Quantile Regressions," Textos para discussão 533, Department of Economics PUC-Rio (Brazil).
- Sergio Firpo & Nicole M. Fortin & Thomas Lemieux, 2007. "Unconditional Quantile Regressions," NBER Technical Working Papers 0339, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Horton N. J. & Lipsitz S. R., 2001. "Multiple Imputation in Practice: Comparison of Software Packages for Regression Models With Missing Variables," The American Statistician, American Statistical Association, vol. 55, pages 244-254, August.
- repec:dau:papers:123456789/6069 is not listed on IDEAS
- Stefan Sperlich & Juan M. Rodríguez-Póo & Ana I. Fernández, 2005. "Semiparametric three-step estimation methods for simultaneous equation systems," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 20(6), pages 699-721.
- Alessandro Tarozzi & Angus Deaton, 2009. "Using Census and Survey Data to Estimate Poverty and Inequality for Small Areas," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 91(4), pages 773-792, November.
- Demombynes, Gabriel & Elbers, Chris & Lanjouw, Jean O. & Lanjouw, Peter, 2007. "How good a map ? Putting small area estimation to the test," Policy Research Working Paper Series 4155, The World Bank.
- David E. Sahn & David Stifel, 2003. "Exploring Alternative Measures of Welfare in the Absence of Expenditure Data," Review of Income and Wealth, International Association for Research in Income and Wealth, vol. 49(4), pages 463-489, December.
- Pradhan, Menno, et al, 2001. "Eating Like Which "Joneses?" An Iterative Solution to the Choice of a Poverty Line "Reference Group."," Review of Income and Wealth, International Association for Research in Income and Wealth, vol. 47(4), pages 473-487, December.
- Filmer, Deon*Pritchett, Lant, 1998. "Estimating wealth effects without expenditure data - or tears : with an application to educational enrollments in states of India," Policy Research Working Paper Series 1994, The World Bank.
- Ahn, Hyungtaik & Powell, James L., 1993. "Semiparametric estimation of censored selection models with a nonparametric selection mechanism," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 58(1-2), pages 3-29, July.
- Jacob Mincer, 1958. "Investment in Human Capital and Personal Income Distribution," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 66, pages 281-281.
- Rothe, Christoph, 2010. "Nonparametric estimation of distributional policy effects," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 155(1), pages 56-70, March.
- Leonardo Gasparini & Mariana Marchionni & Federico Gutierrez, 2004. "Simulating Income Distribution Changes in Bolivia: a Microeconometric Approach," CEDLAS, Working Papers 0012, CEDLAS, Universidad Nacional de La Plata. Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)