IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/mag/wpaper/150019.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Capitalization of capital gains taxes: (In)attention and turn-of-the-year returns

Author

Listed:
  • Sebastian Eichfelder

    (Faculty of Economics and Management, Otto-von-Guericke University Magdeburg)

  • Mona Lau

    (Faculty of Economics and Management, Freie Universität Berlin and Ernst & Young Berlin)

Abstract

We argue that the tax capitalization effect is a function of the attention of market participants. Market reactions can therefore be driven not only by the announcement dates of tax events but also by factors influencing the dissemination of tax information, such as deadlines and media reports. Analyzing the introduction date of the earlier-announced German capital gains tax reform of 2009 by triple-difference estimation, we find evidence of a delayed market reaction long after the announcement date. Within the last two (five) trading days before the deadline, we observe a sharp increase in abnormal trading volumes of 151.7% (104.0%). The aggregate abnormal return of the German capital market in the last five trading days in 2008 was 10.6%. Furthermore, we find a significant and positive correlation between trading volumes and measures for awareness of the upcoming tax reform (Google searches and media reports).

Suggested Citation

  • Sebastian Eichfelder & Mona Lau, 2015. "Capitalization of capital gains taxes: (In)attention and turn-of-the-year returns," FEMM Working Papers 150019, Otto-von-Guericke University Magdeburg, Faculty of Economics and Management.
    • Handle: RePEc:mag:wpaper:150019
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.fww.ovgu.de/fww_media/femm/femm_2015/2015_19.pdf
    File Function: First version, 2011
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Richard H. Thaler & Shlomo Benartzi, 2004. "Save More Tomorrow (TM): Using Behavioral Economics to Increase Employee Saving," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 112(S1), pages 164-187, February.
    2. Fama, Eugene F., 1998. "Market efficiency, long-term returns, and behavioral finance," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 49(3), pages 283-306, September.
    3. Reis, Ricardo, 2006. "Inattentive consumers," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 53(8), pages 1761-1800, November.
    4. Sias, Richard W & Starks, Laura T, 1997. "Institutions and Individuals at the Turn-of-the-Year," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 52(4), pages 1543-1562, September.
    5. Eichfelder, Sebastian & Lau, Mona, 2014. "Capital gains taxes and asset prices: The impact of tax awareness and procrastination," arqus Discussion Papers in Quantitative Tax Research 170, arqus - Arbeitskreis Quantitative Steuerlehre.
    6. Benjamin C. Ayers & Craig E. Lefanowicz & John R. Robinson, 2003. "Shareholder Taxes in Acquisition Premiums: The Effect of Capital Gains Taxation," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 58(6), pages 2783-2801, December.
    7. Raj Chetty & Adam Looney & Kory Kroft, 2009. "Salience and Taxation: Theory and Evidence," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 99(4), pages 1145-1177, September.
    8. Sikes, Stephanie A., 2014. "The turn-of-the-year effect and tax-loss-selling by institutional investors," Journal of Accounting and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 57(1), pages 22-42.
    9. Eichfelder, Sebastian & Lau, Mona, 2014. "Capital gains taxes and asset prices: The impact of tax awareness and procrastination," Discussion Papers 2014/17, Free University Berlin, School of Business & Economics.
    10. Stijn Van Nieuwerburgh & Laura Veldkamp, 2009. "Information Immobility and the Home Bias Puzzle," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 64(3), pages 1187-1215, June.
    11. Annette Alstadsæter & Martin Jacob, 2013. "The Effect of Awareness and Incentives on Tax Evasion," CESifo Working Paper Series 4369, CESifo.
    12. Jeffrey L. Hoopes & Daniel H. Reck & Joel Slemrod, 2015. "Taxpayer Search for Information: Implications for Rational Attention," American Economic Journal: Economic Policy, American Economic Association, vol. 7(3), pages 177-208, August.
    13. Mitchell A. Petersen, 2009. "Estimating Standard Errors in Finance Panel Data Sets: Comparing Approaches," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 22(1), pages 435-480, January.
    14. James M. Poterba & Scott J. Weisbenner, 2001. "Capital Gains Tax Rules, Tax‐loss Trading, and Turn‐of‐the‐year Returns," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 56(1), pages 353-368, February.
    15. Akerlof, George A, 1991. "Procrastination and Obedience," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 81(2), pages 1-19, May.
    16. Kennedy, Peter E, 1981. "Estimation with Correctly Interpreted Dummy Variables in Semilogarithmic Equations [The Interpretation of Dummy Variables in Semilogarithmic Equations]," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 71(4), pages 801-801, September.
    17. Lang, Mark H. & Shackelford, Douglas A., 2000. "Capitalization of capital gains taxes: evidence from stock price reactions to the 1997 rate reduction," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 76(1), pages 69-85, April.
    18. Laura T. Starks & Li Yong & Lu Zheng, 2006. "Tax‐Loss Selling and the January Effect: Evidence from Municipal Bond Closed‐End Funds," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 61(6), pages 3049-3067, December.
    19. Clemens Sialm, 2009. "Tax Changes and Asset Pricing," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 99(4), pages 1356-1383, September.
    20. Zhonglan Dai & Edward Maydew & Douglas A. Shackelford & Harold H. Zhang, 2008. "Capital Gains Taxes and Asset Prices: Capitalization or Lock‐in?," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 63(2), pages 709-742, April.
    21. Nicholas Barberis & Wei Xiong, 2009. "What Drives the Disposition Effect? An Analysis of a Long‐Standing Preference‐Based Explanation," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 64(2), pages 751-784, April.
    22. Jochem, Axel & Volz, Ute, 2011. "Portfolio holdings in the euro area - home bias and the role of international, domestic and sector-specific factors," Discussion Paper Series 1: Economic Studies 2011,07, Deutsche Bundesbank.
    23. Amoako-Adu, Ben & Rashid, M. & Stebbins, M., 1992. "Capital gains tax and equity values: Empirical test of stock price reaction to the introduction and reduction of capital gains tax exemption," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 16(2), pages 275-287, April.
    24. Klein, Peter, 1998. "The capital gain lock-in effect with short sales constraints," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 22(12), pages 1533-1558, December.
    25. William A. Reese, Jr., 1998. "Capital Gains Taxation and Stock Market Activity: Evidence from IPOs," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 53(5), pages 1799-1819, October.
    26. Ahearne, Alan G. & Griever, William L. & Warnock, Francis E., 2004. "Information costs and home bias: an analysis of US holdings of foreign equities," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 62(2), pages 313-336, March.
    27. Stefano Dellavigna & Joshua M. Pollet, 2009. "Investor Inattention and Friday Earnings Announcements," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 64(2), pages 709-749, April.
    28. Fama, Eugene F, 1970. "Efficient Capital Markets: A Review of Theory and Empirical Work," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 25(2), pages 383-417, May.
    29. Sims, Christopher A., 2003. "Implications of rational inattention," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 50(3), pages 665-690, April.
    30. Peter Klibanoff & Owen Lamont & Thierry A. Wizman, 1998. "Investor Reaction to Salient News in Closed-End Country Funds," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 53(2), pages 673-699, April.
    31. Kian‐Ping Lim & Robert Brooks, 2011. "The Evolution Of Stock Market Efficiency Over Time: A Survey Of The Empirical Literature," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 25(1), pages 69-108, February.
    32. David Hirshleifer & Sonya Seongyeon Lim & Siew Hong Teoh, 2009. "Driven to Distraction: Extraneous Events and Underreaction to Earnings News," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 64(5), pages 2289-2325, October.
    33. Pantzalis, Christos & Ucar, Erdem, 2014. "Religious holidays, investor distraction, and earnings announcement effects," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 47(C), pages 102-117.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Eichfelder, Sebastian & Lau, Mona, 2015. "Capitalization of capital gains taxes: (In)attention and turn-of-the-year returns," arqus Discussion Papers in Quantitative Tax Research 195, arqus - Arbeitskreis Quantitative Steuerlehre.
    2. Eichfelder, Sebastian & Lau, Mona, 2015. "Capitalization of capital gains taxes: (In)attention and turn-of-the-year returns," Discussion Papers 2015/33, Free University Berlin, School of Business & Economics.
    3. Eichfelder, Sebastian & Lau, Mona, 2014. "Capital gains taxes and asset prices: The impact of tax awareness and procrastination," arqus Discussion Papers in Quantitative Tax Research 170, arqus - Arbeitskreis Quantitative Steuerlehre.
    4. Eichfelder, Sebastian & Lau, Mona, 2014. "Capital gains taxes and asset prices: The impact of tax awareness and procrastination," Discussion Papers 2014/17, Free University Berlin, School of Business & Economics.
    5. Stefano DellaVigna, 2009. "Psychology and Economics: Evidence from the Field," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 47(2), pages 315-372, June.
    6. Josef Fink, 2020. "A Review of the Post-Earnings-Announcement Drift," Working Paper Series, Social and Economic Sciences 2020-04, Faculty of Social and Economic Sciences, Karl-Franzens-University Graz.
    7. Harry Huizinga & Johannes Voget & Wolf Wagner, 2014. "International Taxation and Cross-Border Banking," American Economic Journal: Economic Policy, American Economic Association, vol. 6(2), pages 94-125, May.
    8. Huizinga, Harry & Voget, Johannes & Wagner, Wolf, 2018. "Capital gains taxation and the cost of capital: Evidence from unanticipated cross-border transfers of tax base," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 129(2), pages 306-328.
    9. Stimmelmayr, Michael & Liberini, Federica & Russo, Antonio, 2015. "The Role of Toeholds and Capital Gain Taxes for Corporate Acquisition Strategies," VfS Annual Conference 2015 (Muenster): Economic Development - Theory and Policy 112926, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association.
    10. Easterday, Kathryn E. & Sen, Pradyot K., 2016. "Is the January effect rational? Insights from the accounting valuation model," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 59(C), pages 168-185.
    11. Blankespoor, Elizabeth & deHaan, Ed & Marinovic, Iván, 2020. "Disclosure processing costs, investors’ information choice, and equity market outcomes: A review," Journal of Accounting and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 70(2).
    12. Jin, Li & Kothari, S.P., 2008. "Effect of personal taxes on managers' decisions to sell their stock," Journal of Accounting and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 46(1), pages 23-46, September.
    13. Jeffrey L. Hoopes & Daniel H. Reck & Joel Slemrod, 2015. "Taxpayer Search for Information: Implications for Rational Attention," American Economic Journal: Economic Policy, American Economic Association, vol. 7(3), pages 177-208, August.
    14. Guiso, Luigi & Sodini, Paolo, 2013. "Household Finance: An Emerging Field," Handbook of the Economics of Finance, in: G.M. Constantinides & M. Harris & R. M. Stulz (ed.), Handbook of the Economics of Finance, volume 2, chapter 0, pages 1397-1532, Elsevier.
    15. Xavier Gabaix, 2017. "Behavioral Inattention," NBER Working Papers 24096, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    16. Johannes Abeler & Simon Jäger, 2013. "Complex Tax Incentives - An Experimental Investigation," CESifo Working Paper Series 4231, CESifo.
    17. Fink, Josef, 2021. "A review of the Post-Earnings-Announcement Drift," Journal of Behavioral and Experimental Finance, Elsevier, vol. 29(C).
    18. Löffler, Gunter & Norden, Lars & Rieber, Alexander, 2021. "Negative news and the stock market impact of tone in rating reports," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 133(C).
    19. Dean Karlan & Margaret McConnell & Sendhil Mullainathan & Jonathan Zinman, 2016. "Getting to the Top of Mind: How Reminders Increase Saving," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 62(12), pages 3393-3411, December.
    20. Buhlmann, Florian & Doerrenberg, Philipp & Voget, Johannes & Loos, Benjamin, 2020. "How do taxes affect the trading behavior of private investors? Evidence from individual portfolio data," ZEW Discussion Papers 20-047, ZEW - Leibniz Centre for European Economic Research.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Capital gains tax; asset pricing; tax awareness; tax arbitrage; turn-of-the-year effect; market efficiency;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • G02 - Financial Economics - - General - - - Behavioral Finance: Underlying Principles
    • G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates
    • H24 - Public Economics - - Taxation, Subsidies, and Revenue - - - Personal Income and Other Nonbusiness Taxes and Subsidies
    • M41 - Business Administration and Business Economics; Marketing; Accounting; Personnel Economics - - Accounting - - - Accounting

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:mag:wpaper:150019. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Guido Henkel (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/fwmagde.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.