Procrastination and Obedience

-Usual models of economic behavior used in analysis of policy reform assume individualistic values with forward looking rational expectations. These assumptions, while excellent at clarifying economic principles, are not quite realistic in an environment where significant • policy reform is taking place. This environment may be characterized more by individuals changing their minds and behavior as they respond to leadership and now ideas. This research models repeated decisions with time inconsistent behavior. Although each decision results in only small losses, the cumulative effect of a series of repeated errors can be quite large. Policy consequences of this type of behavior are illustrated with examples from • savings, crime, substance abuse, politics and bureaucratic organizations. Courses of action are reinforced by selective elimination of information contrary to that course of action, so that initial psychological overcommitments are reinforced. Limiting initial overcommitment and providing constant, contradictory information are important instruments to avoid the losses which result from procrastination and indoctrination.