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The turn-of-the-year effect and tax-loss-selling by institutional investors

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  • Sikes, Stephanie A.

Abstract

Prior studies attribute the turn-of-the-year effect whereby small capitalization stocks earn unusually high returns in early January to tax-loss-selling by individual investors and window-dressing by institutional investors. My results suggest that a significant portion of the effect on turn-of-the-year returns that prior studies attribute to window-dressing is actually attributable to tax-loss-selling by institutional investors. Among small capitalization stocks, I find that institutional investors with strong tax incentives and weak window-dressing incentives realize significantly more losses in the fourth quarter than in the first three quarters of the calendar year, and that their fourth quarter realized losses have a significant impact on turn-of-the-year returns. A one percentage point change in these institutional investors' fourth quarter realized losses scaled by a firm's market capitalization results in an increase of 47 basis points in the firm's average daily return over the first three trading days of January, which represents a 46 percent change for the mean firm.

Suggested Citation

  • Sikes, Stephanie A., 2014. "The turn-of-the-year effect and tax-loss-selling by institutional investors," Journal of Accounting and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 57(1), pages 22-42.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:jaecon:v:57:y:2014:i:1:p:22-42
    DOI: 10.1016/j.jacceco.2013.12.002
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    2. Lynch, Andrew & Puckett, Andy & Yan, Xuemin (Sterling), 2014. "Institutions and the turn-of-the-year effect: Evidence from actual institutional trades," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 49(C), pages 56-68.
    3. Easterday, Kathryn E. & Sen, Pradyot K., 2016. "Is the January effect rational? Insights from the accounting valuation model," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 59(C), pages 168-185.
    4. Eichfelder, Sebastian & Lau, Mona, 2015. "Capitalization of capital gains taxes: (In)attention and turn-of-the-year returns," arqus Discussion Papers in Quantitative Tax Research 195, arqus - Arbeitskreis Quantitative Steuerlehre.
    5. Khushboo Aggarwal & Mithilesh Kumar Jha, 2023. "Stock returns seasonality in emerging asian markets," Asia-Pacific Financial Markets, Springer;Japanese Association of Financial Economics and Engineering, vol. 30(1), pages 109-130, March.
    6. Eichfelder, Sebastian & Lau, Mona, 2015. "Capitalization of capital gains taxes: (In)attention and turn-of-the-year returns," Discussion Papers 2015/33, Free University Berlin, School of Business & Economics.
    7. Sebastian Eichfelder & Mona Lau, 2015. "Capitalization of capital gains taxes: (In)attention and turn-of-the-year returns," FEMM Working Papers 150019, Otto-von-Guericke University Magdeburg, Faculty of Economics and Management.
    8. Nikkinen, Jussi & Rothovius, Timo, 2019. "Market specific seasonal trading behavior in NASDAQ OMX electricity options," Journal of Commodity Markets, Elsevier, vol. 13(C), pages 16-29.
    9. Abdul Rashid & Saba Kausar, 2019. "Testing the Monthly Calendar Anomaly of Stock Returns in Pakistan: A Stochastic Dominance Approach," The Pakistan Development Review, Pakistan Institute of Development Economics, vol. 58(1), pages 83-104.
    10. Carlos Francisco Alves & Duarte André de Castro Reis, 2018. "Evidence of Idiosyncratic Seasonality in ETFs Performance," FEP Working Papers 603, Universidade do Porto, Faculdade de Economia do Porto.
    11. Frijns, Bart & Huynh, Thanh D. & Tourani-Rad, Alireza & Westerholm, P. Joakim, 2018. "Institutional trading and asset pricing," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 89(C), pages 59-77.
    12. Suliman Zakaria Suliman Abdalla, 2015. "An Investigation of the Month-of-The-Year Effect for the Sudanese Stock Market," Working Papers 924, Economic Research Forum, revised Jun 2015.
    13. Agapova, Anna & Volkov, Nikanor, 2021. "Asymmetric tax-induced trading: The effect of capital gains tax changes," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 79(C), pages 245-259.
    14. Agapova, Anna & Kaprielyan, Margarita, 2020. "Stock volatility and trading," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 54(C).
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Turn-of-the-year effect; Tax-loss-selling; Institutional investors;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • G20 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - General
    • H24 - Public Economics - - Taxation, Subsidies, and Revenue - - - Personal Income and Other Nonbusiness Taxes and Subsidies

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