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Estimating dynamic consumption of antibiotics using panel data: the shadow effect of bacterial resistance

Author

Listed:
  • Massimo Filippini

    (Department of Economics, ETH Zurich, Switzerland)

  • Laura González

    (Department of Economics, University of Lugano, Switzerland)

  • Giuliano Masiero

    (Department of Economics and Technology Management, University of Bergamo, Italy)

Abstract

To some extent, antibiotics are similar to addictive goods since current consumption is reinforced by past use because of bacterial resistance, which represents a growing concern in many countries. The purpose of this paper is to explore how consumers adjust their current level of antibiotic consumption towards desired levels over time. We construct a balanced panel dataset (2000-2007) for 20 Italian regions and estimate a dynamic model where antibiotic consumption depends upon demographic and socioeconomic characteristics of the population, the supply of health care in the community, antibiotic price, and the "capital stock" of endogenous bacterial resistance measured by past consumption. We apply alternative dynamic estimators for short panels: the bias-corrected least squares dummy variable (LSDVC) and the system Blundell-Bond GMM estimator (GMM-BB). The estimation results are stable across different model specifications and show that antibiotic use in previous periods has a positive impact on current antimicrobial consumption (between 0.14 and 0.39). This indicates that the process of adjustment to desired levels of consumption is relatively fast (approximately 1.2-1.6 years). Weak persistence in consumption may suggest that individuals are responsive to changes in antibiotic effectiveness.

Suggested Citation

  • Massimo Filippini & Laura González & Giuliano Masiero, 2010. "Estimating dynamic consumption of antibiotics using panel data: the shadow effect of bacterial resistance," Quaderni della facoltà di Scienze economiche dell'Università di Lugano 1011, USI Università della Svizzera italiana.
    • Handle: RePEc:lug:wpaper:1011
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    JEL classification:

    • C21 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Cross-Sectional Models; Spatial Models; Treatment Effect Models
    • C23 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Models with Panel Data; Spatio-temporal Models
    • I1 - Health, Education, and Welfare - - Health

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