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Reducing Economic Imbalances in the Euro Area: Some Remarks on the Current Stability Programs, 2011–14

Author

Listed:
  • Gregor Semieniuk
  • Till van Treeck
  • Achim Truger

Abstract

This paper evaluates whether the 2011 national stability programs (SPs) of the euro area countries are instrumental in achieving economic stability in the European Monetary Union (EMU). In particular, we analyze how the SPs address the double challenge of public deficits and external imbalances. Our analysis rests, first, on the accounting identities of the public, private, and foreign financial balances; and second, on the consideration of all SPs at once rather than separately. We find that conclusions are optimistic regarding GDP growth and fiscal consolidation, while current account rebalancing is neglected. The current SPs reach these conclusions by assuming strong global export markets, entrenched current account imbalances within the EMU as well as the deterioration of private financial balances in the current account deficit countries. By means of our simulations we conclude, on the one hand, that the failure of favorable global macroeconomic developments to materialize may lead to the opposite of the desired stability by exacerbating imbalances in the euro area. On the other hand, given symmetric efforts at rebalancing, the simulation suggests that for surplus countries that reduce their current account, a more expansionary fiscal policy will likely be required to maintain growth rates.

Suggested Citation

  • Gregor Semieniuk & Till van Treeck & Achim Truger, 2011. "Reducing Economic Imbalances in the Euro Area: Some Remarks on the Current Stability Programs, 2011–14," Economics Working Paper Archive wp_694, Levy Economics Institute.
  • Handle: RePEc:lev:wrkpap:wp_694
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Gregor Semieniuk & Till van Treeck & Achim Truger, 2012. "Nothing learned from the crisis? Some remarks on the stability programmes 2011–2014 of the Euro area governments," Chapters,in: Keynes’s General Theory for Today, chapter 11, pages 186-206 Edward Elgar Publishing.
    2. Wynne Godley & Dimitri B. Papadimitriou & Greg Hannsgen & Gennaro Zezza, 2007. "The U.S. Economy: Is There a Way Out of the Woods?," Economics Strategic Analysis Archive sa_nov_07, Levy Economics Institute.
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    Cited by:

    1. Gregor Semieniuk & Till van Treeck & Achim Truger, 2012. "Nothing learned from the crisis? Some remarks on the stability programmes 2011–2014 of the Euro area governments," Chapters,in: Keynes’s General Theory for Today, chapter 11, pages 186-206 Edward Elgar Publishing.
    2. Eugenio Caverzasi & Antoine Godin, 2013. "Stock-flow Consistent Modeling through the Ages," Economics Working Paper Archive wp_745, Levy Economics Institute.
    3. Michalis Nikiforos & Gennaro Zezza, 2017. "Stock-flow Consistent Macroeconomic Models: A Survey," Economics Working Paper Archive wp_891, Levy Economics Institute.
    4. Alexander Herzog-Stein & Heike Joebges & Ulrike Stein & Rudolf Zwiener, 2013. "Labour cost trends and international competitiveness in Europe," IMK Report 88e-2013, IMK at the Hans Boeckler Foundation, Macroeconomic Policy Institute.
    5. Georgios Argitis & Maria Nikolaidi, 2014. "The financial fragility and the crisis of the Greek government sector," International Review of Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 28(3), pages 274-292, May.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Euro Area; Stability Programs; Current Account Imbalances; Fiscal Policy; Stability and Growth Pact;

    JEL classification:

    • E10 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - General Aggregative Models - - - General
    • E17 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - General Aggregative Models - - - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications
    • E62 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Fiscal Policy
    • F42 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - International Policy Coordination and Transmission

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