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The U.S. Economy: Is There a Way Out of the Woods?

Author

Listed:
  • Wynne Godley
  • Dimitri B. Papadimitriou
  • Greg Hannsgen
  • Gennaro Zezza

Abstract

This Strategic Analysis provides a retrospective view of U.S. growth in the last 10 years, showing that the authors’ previous work, grounded in the linkages between growth and the financial balances of the private, public, and foreign sectors of the economy, has proven a useful contribution to the public discussion. The analysis reviews recent events in the U.S. housing and financial markets to obtain a likely scenario for the evolution of household spending. It argues that a significant drop in borrowing is likely to take place in the coming quarters, with severe consequences for growth and unemployment, unless (1) the U.S. dollar is allowed to continue its fall and thus complete the recovery in the U.S. external imbalance, and (2) fiscal policy shifts its course—as it did in the 2001 recession.

Suggested Citation

  • Wynne Godley & Dimitri B. Papadimitriou & Greg Hannsgen & Gennaro Zezza, 2007. "The U.S. Economy: Is There a Way Out of the Woods?," Economics Strategic Analysis Archive sa_nov_07, Levy Economics Institute.
    • Handle: RePEc:lev:levysa:sa_nov_07
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    Cited by:

    1. Eugenio Caverzasi & Antoine Godin, 2013. "Stock-flow Consistent Modeling through the Ages," Economics Working Paper Archive wp_745, Levy Economics Institute.
    2. Paolo Casadio & Antonio Paradiso, 2012. "Private sector balance, financial markets, and US cycle: a SVAR analysis," Journal of Economic Studies, Emerald Group Publishing Limited, vol. 39(6), pages 709-723, October.
    3. Michalis Nikiforos & Gennaro Zezza, 2017. "Stock-flow Consistent Macroeconomic Models: A Survey," Economics Working Paper Archive wp_891, Levy Economics Institute.
    4. Yannis Dafermos, 2018. "Debt cycles, instability and fiscal rules: a Godley–Minsky synthesis," Cambridge Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 42(5), pages 1277-1313.
    5. Bill Lucarelli, 2011. "The Economics of Financial Turbulence," Books, Edward Elgar Publishing, number 14252.
    6. Gennaro Zezza & Francesco Zezza, 2019. "On the Design of Empirical Stock-Flow-Consistent Models," Economics Working Paper Archive wp_919, Levy Economics Institute.
    7. Yannis Dafermos, 2015. "Debt cycles, instability and fiscal rules: a Godley-Minsky model," Working Papers 20151509, Department of Accounting, Economics and Finance, Bristol Business School, University of the West of England, Bristol.
    8. Dirk J. Bezemer, 2012. "Modelos contables y comprensión de la crisis financiera," Revista de Economía Institucional, Universidad Externado de Colombia - Facultad de Economía, vol. 14(26), pages 47-76, January-J.
    9. Armon Rezai, 2013. "Cycles of demand and distribution and monetary policy in the U.S. economy," Journal of Post Keynesian Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 36(2), pages 231-250.
    10. Mikael Randrup Byrialsen & Hamid Raza, "undated". "An Empirical Stock-Flow Consistent Macroeconomic Model for Denmark," Economics Working Paper Archive wp_942, Levy Economics Institute.
    11. Ingo Barens & Peter Flaschel & Florian Hartmann & Andreas Röthig, 2010. "Kaldorian boom-bust cycles in the housing market," European Journal of Economics and Economic Policies: Intervention, Edward Elgar Publishing, vol. 7(2), pages 361-375.
    12. Georgios Argitis & Maria Nikolaidi, 2014. "The financial fragility and the crisis of the Greek government sector," International Review of Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 28(3), pages 274-292, May.
    13. Bezemer, Dirk J., 2010. "Understanding financial crisis through accounting models," Accounting, Organizations and Society, Elsevier, vol. 35(7), pages 676-688, October.
    14. Rosa Canelli & Riccardo Realfonzo & Francesco Zezza, 2022. "An empirical Stock‐Flow Consistent regional model of Campania," Papers in Regional Science, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 101(1), pages 209-257, February.
    15. Gregor Semieniuk & Till van Treeck & Achim Truger, 2011. "Reducing Economic Imbalances in the Euro Area: Some Remarks on the Current Stability Programs, 2011–14," Economics Working Paper Archive wp_694, Levy Economics Institute.
    16. James Galbraith, 2012. "The final death and next life of Maynard Keynes," Chapters, in: Jesper Jespersen & Mogens Ove Madsen (ed.), Keynes’s General Theory for Today, chapter 2, pages 30-39, Edward Elgar Publishing.
    17. Eduardo Strachman & Jos Ricardo Fucidji, 2012. "The Current Financial And Economic Crisis Empirical And Methodological Issues," Journal of Advanced Studies in Finance, ASERS Publishing, vol. 3(1), pages 95-109.
    18. Barbieri Hermitte, Riccardo & Cagnazzo, Alberto & Favero, Carlo A. & Felici, Francesco & Macauda, Valeria & Nucci, Francesco & Tegami, Cristian, 2023. "ITFIN: A stock-flow consistent model for the Italian economy," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 119(C).
    19. Eckhard Hein & Till van Treeck, 2008. "Finanzmarktorientierung - ein Investitions- und Wachstumshemmnis?," IMK Report 26-2008, IMK at the Hans Boeckler Foundation, Macroeconomic Policy Institute.

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