Nominal Stability and Swiss Monetary Regimes over two Centuries
This paper documents nominal stability in Switzerland from 1805 to 2013 using a data set on annual price, wage and nominal GDP changes. The trends of these indicators are estimated by an unobserved-components stochastic-volatility model in order to control for short-term fluctuations and measurement error. Based on a narrative analysis of these trends five main findings emerge. (i) Fiat currency regimes in Switzerland provided a relatively stable monetary background even compared to the metal-currency regimes before WW1. (ii) The flexible inflation targeting regime adopted in December 1999 has performed best over the last two centuries measured by today’s definition of nominal stability. (iii) Fiat currency regimes without clearly communicated nominal price anchor (Bretton Woods System and monetary targeting) were characterised by an inflation bias. (iv) The metal-currency regimes (competing currencies and bimetallism before World War 1, and to some extent flexible inflation targeting, were associated with a deflation bias. (v) Persistent deflations in terms of the CPI only occurred under metallic regimes before WW2. These episodes were accompanied by falling nominal GDP, falling employment but relatively stable hourly wages.
|Date of creation:||Apr 2015|
|Contact details of provider:|| Postal: Leonhardstrasse 21, CH-8092 Zürich|
Phone: +41 44 632 42 39
Fax: +41 44 632 12 18
Web page: http://www.kof.ethz.ch
More information through EDIRC
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Bo E. Honoré & Daniel Kaufmann & Sarah Lein, 2012.
"Asymmetries in Price‐Setting Behavior: New Microeconometric Evidence from Switzerland,"
Journal of Money, Credit and Banking,
Blackwell Publishing, vol. 44, pages 211-236, December.
- Bo E. Honoré & Daniel Kaufmann & Sarah Marit Lein, 2012. "Asymmetries in Price-Setting Behavior: New Microeconometric Evidence from Switzerland," Working Papers 2012-09, Swiss National Bank.
- Peter Bernholz, 2003. "Monetary Regimes and Inflation," Books, Edward Elgar Publishing, number 2873.
- Lawrence H. Summers, 1991. "Panel discussion: price stability ; How should long-term monetary policy be determined?," Proceedings, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland, pages 625-631.
- Refet S Gürkaynak & Andrew Levin & Eric Swanson, 2010. "Does Inflation Targeting Anchor Long-Run Inflation Expectations? Evidence from the U.S., UK, and Sweden," Journal of the European Economic Association, MIT Press, vol. 8(6), pages 1208-1242, December.
- Reifschneider, David & Willams, John C, 2000. "Three Lessons for Monetary Policy in a Low-Inflation Era," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 32(4), pages 936-966, November.
- Kettemann, Andreas & Krogstrup, Signe, 2014. "Portfolio balance effects of the Swiss National Bank’s bond purchase program," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 40(C), pages 132-149.
- Timothy Cogley & Thomas J. Sargent, 2005. "Drift and Volatilities: Monetary Policies and Outcomes in the Post WWII U.S," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 8(2), pages 262-302, April.
- Timothy Cogley & Thomas Sargent, "undated". "Drifts and Volatilities: Monetary Policies and Outcomes in the Post WWII US," Working Papers 2133503, Department of Economics, W. P. Carey School of Business, Arizona State University.
- Timothy Cogley & Thomas J. Sargent, 2003. "Drifts and volatilities: monetary policies and outcomes in the post WWII U.S," FRB Atlanta Working Paper 2003-25, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta.
- Erceg, Christopher J. & Henderson, Dale W. & Levin, Andrew T., 2000. "Optimal monetary policy with staggered wage and price contracts," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 46(2), pages 281-313, October.
- Christopher J. Erceg & Dale W. Henderson & Andrew T. Levin, 1999. "Optimal monetary policy with staggered wage and price contracts," International Finance Discussion Papers 640, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
- Andrew Levin & Christopher J. Erceg & Dale W. Henderson, 1999. "Optimal Monetary Policy with Staggered Wage and Price Contracts," Computing in Economics and Finance 1999 1151, Society for Computational Economics.
- Beveridge, Stephen & Nelson, Charles R., 1981. "A new approach to decomposition of economic time series into permanent and transitory components with particular attention to measurement of the `business cycle'," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 7(2), pages 151-174.
- Sangjoon Kim & Neil Shephard & Siddhartha Chib, 1998. "Stochastic Volatility: Likelihood Inference and Comparison with ARCH Models," Review of Economic Studies, Oxford University Press, vol. 65(3), pages 361-393.
- David L. Reifschneider & John C. Williams, 2000. "Three lessons for monetary policy in a low-inflation era," Conference Series ; [Proceedings], Federal Reserve Bank of Boston, pages 936-978.
- David L. Reifschneider & John C. Williams, 1999. "Three lessons for monetary policy in a low inflation era," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 1999-44, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
- Giorgio E. Primiceri, 2005. "Time Varying Structural Vector Autoregressions and Monetary Policy," Review of Economic Studies, Oxford University Press, vol. 72(3), pages 821-852.
- Scott Sumner, 2014. "Nominal GDP Targeting: A Simple Rule to Improve Fed Performance," Cato Journal, Cato Journal, Cato Institute, vol. 34(2), pages 315-337, Spring/Su.
- Summers, Lawrence, 1991. "How Should Long-Term Monetary Policy Be Determined? Panel Discussion," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 23(3), pages 625-631, August.
- Peter Rosenkranz & Tobias Straumann & Ulrich Woitek, 2014. "A small open economy in the Great Depression: the case of Switzerland," ECON - Working Papers 164, Department of Economics - University of Zurich. Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:kof:wpskof:15-379. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: ()
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.