Identifying left-behind places: A multidimensional typology at the municipal level

This paper investigates how demographic, socioeconomic, and second-nature geographic factors jointly shape the emergence, spatial distribution, and heterogeneity of left-behind places (LBPs) in Spain. Using municipal-level data, it develops an empirical strategy combining cluster analysis, frontier analysis, and a multinomial logit model to identify distinct types of territorial vulnerability, to measure how close municipalities are to transitioning into more disadvantaged states, and to estimate the probability of belonging to specific LBP categories. The results reveal substantial heterogeneity across left-behind places, uncovering multiple forms of municipal vulnerability. A central contribution is the explicit incorporation of second-nature geography into the clustering procedure itself rather than treating geography as a merely contextual or ex post factor. These variables emerge as critical drivers of territorial disadvantage, and their inclusion leads to the reclassification of nearly 20% of Spanish municipalities, uncovering forms of hidden marginality that would remain invisible in analyses based solely on demographic and socioeconomic characteristics. From a policy perspective, the findings support a shift toward what the authors term systemic place-based policies; forward-looking strategies that seek to reshape the spatial preconditions for economic activity rather than simply adapting to existing territorial structures.