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Transatlantic Trade and Investment Partnership: Sectoral and Macroeconomic Perspectives for Germany, the EU and the US

Author

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  • Irawan, Tony

    (University of Wuppertal)

  • Welfens, Paul J. J.

    (University of Wuppertal)

Abstract

The EU and the US have started negotiations on a Transatlantic Trade and Investment Partnership Agreement (TTIP) which could bring a considerable increase of exports and output as well as changes in the composition of output and employment. Thus export simulation studies in combination with input output analysis and employment analysis is useful. In the analysis presented the focus is mainly on sectoral output and employment effects where the key sectors are the automotive sector, chemical industry, information and communication technology production, pharmaceuticals and machinery and equipment. Backward sector links are analyzed and found to be quite important in the automotive sector, the chemical industry, the machinery and equipment sector in both Germany and the US; in Germany also in ICT production. However, most of the observed sectors have weak forward linkage. Input output analysis is also used to identify employment effects in various sectors: the pure employment effect of a 20% export expansion in Germany amounts to about 800 000 new jobs. Looking only at the US and German perspective turns out to be misleading – the high imports of intermediate inputs of German firms from EU partner countries suggests that a comparison EU-US is analytically required for some key issues and that considering the effects on EU partners is also useful. There is a host of key policy issues, including the issue of extended sustainability reporting.

Suggested Citation

  • Irawan, Tony & Welfens, Paul J. J., 2014. "Transatlantic Trade and Investment Partnership: Sectoral and Macroeconomic Perspectives for Germany, the EU and the US," IZA Policy Papers 78, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    • Handle: RePEc:iza:izapps:pp78
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Welfens, Paul J. J. & Irawan, Tony, 2014. "European Innovation Dynamics and US Economic Impact: Theory and Empirical Analysis," IZA Discussion Papers 8507, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    2. Paul J. J. Welfens, 2016. "Overcoming the euro crisis and prospects for a political union," International Economics and Economic Policy, Springer, vol. 13(1), pages 59-103, January.
    3. Paul J.J. Welfens, 2020. "Corona World Recession and Health System Crisis: Shocks Not Understood So Far," EIIW Discussion paper disbei273, Universitätsbibliothek Wuppertal, University Library.
    4. Paul Welfens, 2015. "Innovation, inequality and a golden rule for growth in an economy with Cobb-Douglas function and an R&D sector," International Economics and Economic Policy, Springer, vol. 12(4), pages 469-496, October.
    5. Paul J. J. Welfens, 2020. "Macroeconomic and health care aspects of the coronavirus epidemic: EU, US and global perspectives," International Economics and Economic Policy, Springer, vol. 17(2), pages 295-362, May.
    6. Paul J.J. Welfens, 2015. "Transatlantisches Freihandelsabkommen EU-USA: Befunde zu den TTIP-Vorteilen und Anmerkungen zur TTIP-Debatte," EIIW Discussion paper disbei209, Universitätsbibliothek Wuppertal, University Library.
    7. Paul J.J. Welfens, 2020. "Macroeconomic Aspects of the Coronavirus Epidemic: Eurozone, EU, US and Chinese Perspectives," EIIW Discussion paper disbei270, Universitätsbibliothek Wuppertal, University Library.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    TTIP; trade; foreign direct investment; labor; input output analysis; employment;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • F15 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Economic Integration
    • F16 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Trade and Labor Market Interactions
    • F21 - International Economics - - International Factor Movements and International Business - - - International Investment; Long-Term Capital Movements
    • J21 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demand and Supply of Labor - - - Labor Force and Employment, Size, and Structure

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