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Transatlantisches Freihandelsabkommen EU-USA: Befunde zu den TTIP-Vorteilen und Anmerkungen zur TTIP-Debatte

Listed author(s):
  • Paul J.J. Welfens

    ()

    (Europäisches Institut für Internationale Wirtschaftsbeziehungen (EIIW)
    Europäisches Institut für Internationale Wirtschaftsbeziehungen (EIIW))

The expected extent of the long-term benefits of TTIP will initially be presented from the combined perspectives of trade, direct investment and innovation dynamics. The advantages of TTIP are substantially higher than the CEPR study, completed on behalf of the European Commission, suggest, however the positive income effects are clearly less significant than the Ifo-study for the Federal Government of Germany (2013) maintains; the EIIW analysis also presents a different outlook with respect to wage structure effects as that asserted by Ifo (for the Bertelsmann Foundation). According to this analysis, the benefit of TTIP for the EU as a whole amounts to ca. 2% of Gross Domestic Product, for Germany in particular these benefits are estimated at 2-3% of GDP and an additional real growth bonus cannot be ruled out: a 2% increase in income would mean that TTIP could bring an additional €60 billion in income for Germany alone, or €278 billion for the EU, which could be even greater as a result of transatlantic multiplicator effects. The wages of high-skilled workers will, in the event of an EU-US Free Trade Agreement – with a resulting reduction in barriers to transatlantic trade and investment – increase, on a temporary basis, slower than wages for low-skilled workers; in the longer term, however, the wages of high-skilled labour will increase more strongly, as rising levels of direct investment and a growing intensity of innovation by businesses will lead to a rising demand for well-qualified employees. As an aside, the anti-TTIP book by Thilo Bode – economist and head of the NGO foodwatch – can be regarded as a good example of unsound economic analysis of TTIP which is lacking a solid foundation of fundamental rationale. It would be advisable that actors in the field of economic policy undertake measures which support the TTIP project.

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Paper provided by Universitätsbibliothek Wuppertal, University Library in its series EIIW Discussion paper with number disbei209.

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Length: 35 Pages
Date of creation: Jun 2015
Handle: RePEc:bwu:eiiwdp:disbei209
Contact details of provider: Web page: http://elpub.bib.uni-wuppertal.de

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