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Choosing the Regime in an Uncertain World, the UK and Monetary Union

Author

Listed:
  • Barrell, Ray

    (NIESR)

  • Ian Hurst
  • Tatiana Kirsanova

Abstract

The UK has to take a decision on EMU membership at some point, and the costs and benefits have to be evaluated. Different policy frameworks result in differing outcomes for the means and variances of economic variables such as inflation, output, and nominal and real exchange rates and interest rates. Changing the level of uncertainty in the economy may change the equilibrium level of output and investment. Hence membership of EMU has to be evaluated in the light of its impact on the volatility of target variables and on the impact of volatility on the level of output and welfare. We discuss a theoretical framework within which we can discuss these issues, and we undertake stochastic simulation on a large, New Keynesian model including all the European economies in order to evaluate the effects of membership on the level and volatility of output. Our experiments suggest that membership of EMU would reduce volatility and as a result raise the sustainable level of output and employment in the UK.

Suggested Citation

  • Barrell, Ray & Ian Hurst & Tatiana Kirsanova, 2003. "Choosing the Regime in an Uncertain World, the UK and Monetary Union," Royal Economic Society Annual Conference 2003 16, Royal Economic Society.
    • Handle: RePEc:ecj:ac2003:16
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    Cited by:

    1. Zsuzsanna Benyei, 2016. "The Evolution Of Foreign Direct Investment Theories: How Can Institutions Relate?," Annals of Faculty of Economics, University of Oradea, Faculty of Economics, vol. 1(1), pages 13-19, July.
    2. Shan-Li Wang & Feng-Wen Chen & Bing Liao & Cuiju Zhang, 2020. "Foreign Trade, FDI and the Upgrading of Regional Industrial Structure in China: Based on Spatial Econometric Model," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 12(3), pages 1-16, January.
    3. Jungnickel, Rolf & Keller, Dietmar, 2003. "German FDI and Integration of Production in the EU," Discussion Paper Series 26376, Hamburg Institute of International Economics.
    4. Dr Tatiana Fic & Ana Rincon-Aznar & Lucy Stokes & Dawn Holland, 2011. "Labour mobility within the EU," National Institute of Economic and Social Research (NIESR) Discussion Papers 379, National Institute of Economic and Social Research.
    5. Nigel Driffield & James H. Love & Karl Taylor, 2009. "Productivity And Labour Demand Effects Of Inward And Outward Foreign Direct Investment On Uk Industry," Manchester School, University of Manchester, vol. 77(2), pages 171-203, March.
    6. Hiep Ngoc Luu, 2016. "Greenfield investments, cross-border M&As, and economic growth in emerging countries," Economics and Business Letters, Oviedo University Press, vol. 5(3), pages 87-94.
    7. Dellis, Konstantinos & Sondermann, David & Vansteenkiste, Isabel, 2017. "Determinants of FDI inflows in advanced economies: Does the quality of economic structures matter?," Working Paper Series 2066, European Central Bank.
    8. Paul J.J. Welfens, 2015. "Transatlantisches Freihandelsabkommen EU-USA: Befunde zu den TTIP-Vorteilen und Anmerkungen zur TTIP-Debatte," EIIW Discussion paper disbei209, Universitätsbibliothek Wuppertal, University Library.
    9. Nicos Christodoulakis & Vassilis Sarantides, 2017. "External Asymmetries in the Euro Area and the Role of Foreign Direct Investment," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 40(2), pages 393-423, February.
    10. Mumtaz Hussain Shah & Saba Qayyum, 2015. "Impact of Double Taxation Treaties on Inward FDI in Latin American and Caribbean Developing Countries," Business & Economic Review, Institute of Management Sciences, Peshawar, Pakistan, vol. 7(1), pages 1-18, April.
    11. Marian Beise & Heike Belitz, 1998. "Trends in the Internationalisation of R&D - the German Perspective," Vierteljahrshefte zur Wirtschaftsforschung / Quarterly Journal of Economic Research, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research, vol. 67(2), pages 67-85.
    12. Sondermann, David & Vansteenkiste, Isabel, 2019. "Did the euro change the nature of FDI flows among member states?," Working Paper Series 2275, European Central Bank.
    13. Yang Yang & Jin Hong & Ge Song & Song Hong, 2017. "Technology policy, technology strategy and innovation performance: evidence from Chinese aircraft and spacecraft manufacturing," Science and Public Policy, Oxford University Press, vol. 44(5), pages 620-630.
    14. Welfens Paul J.J. & Baier Fabian & Kadiric Samir & Korus Arthur & Xiong Tian, 2019. "EU28 Capital Market Perspectives of a Hard BREXIT: Theory, Empirical Findings and Policy Options," The Economists' Voice, De Gruyter, vol. 16(1), pages 1-16, December.
    15. Jens Gammelgaard & Frank McDonald & Heinz Tüselmann & Christoph Dörrenbächer & Andreas Stephan, 2009. "Subsidiary Role and Skilled Labour Effects in Small Developed Countries," Management International Review, Springer, vol. 49(1), pages 27-42, February.
    16. Jean-Marc Fournier, 2015. "The negative effect of regulatory divergence on foreign direct investment," OECD Economics Department Working Papers 1268, OECD Publishing.
    17. Chengqi Wang & Jeremy Clegg & Mario Kafouros, 2009. "Country-of-Origin Effects of Foreign Direct Investment," Management International Review, Springer, vol. 49(2), pages 179-198, April.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    EMU; exchange rate regimes; uncertainty and investment; UK membership;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • F3 - International Economics - - International Finance
    • F4 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance
    • E47 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications

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