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Labor-Market Consequences of Cross-Border Employment: A Machine Learning Approach

Author

Listed:
  • Albanese, Andrea

    (Luxembourg Institute of Socio-Economic Research (LISER))

  • Marguerit, David

    (Luxembourg Institute of Socio-Economic Research (LISER))

Abstract

Cross-border work is expanding in the EU, yet its labor-market effects on the cross-border workers themselves remain largely undocumented. Using linked Belgian administrative registers that identify cross-border spells in Luxembourg, we estimate the effects of cross-border employment on post-return labor-market outcomes through dynamic double machine learning. Returnees face a short-run employment penalty that fades with cross-border tenure and time since return. They are also more likely to receive Belgian unemployment benefits than comparable stayers, with higher daily benefit levels among recipients.

Suggested Citation

  • Albanese, Andrea & Marguerit, David, 2026. "Labor-Market Consequences of Cross-Border Employment: A Machine Learning Approach," IZA Discussion Papers 18674, IZA Network @ LISER.
    • Handle: RePEc:iza:izadps:dp18674
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    More about this item

    Keywords

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    JEL classification:

    • J61 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Mobility, Unemployment, Vacancies, and Immigrant Workers - - - Geographic Labor Mobility; Immigrant Workers
    • J65 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Mobility, Unemployment, Vacancies, and Immigrant Workers - - - Unemployment Insurance; Severance Pay; Plant Closings
    • J64 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Mobility, Unemployment, Vacancies, and Immigrant Workers - - - Unemployment: Models, Duration, Incidence, and Job Search
    • I38 - Health, Education, and Welfare - - Welfare, Well-Being, and Poverty - - - Government Programs; Provision and Effects of Welfare Programs
    • C21 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Cross-Sectional Models; Spatial Models; Treatment Effect Models
    • C14 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Semiparametric and Nonparametric Methods: General

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