IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/irs/cepswp/2018-05.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Owner Occupied Housing in the CPI and Its Impact On Monetary Policy During Housing Booms and Busts

Author

Listed:
  • HILL Robert J.
  • STEURER Miriam
  • WALTL Sofie R.

Abstract

The treatment of owner-occupied housing (OOH) is probably the most important unresolved issue in inflation measurement. The European Union has been grappling with this problem for over a decade. We argue for measuring OOH costs using a particular version of the user cost method. We then compare the impact of eight different treatments of OOH on the consumer price index (CPI), using quantile hedonic regression. The impact on the CPI is large, and the treatment of OOH emerges as an essential prerequisite to discussions over how an inflation targeting central bank should respond to housing booms and busts.

Suggested Citation

  • HILL Robert J. & STEURER Miriam & WALTL Sofie R., 2018. "Owner Occupied Housing in the CPI and Its Impact On Monetary Policy During Housing Booms and Busts," LISER Working Paper Series 2018-05, Luxembourg Institute of Socio-Economic Research (LISER).
  • Handle: RePEc:irs:cepswp:2018-05
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.liser.lu/publi_viewer.cfm?tmp=4175
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Jonathan Halket & Lars Nesheim & Florian Oswald, 2015. "The housing stock, housing prices, and user costs," SciencePo Working papers Main hal-03393224, HAL.
    2. Charles Himmelberg & Christopher Mayer & Todd Sinai, 2005. "Assessing High House Prices: Bubbles, Fundamentals and Misperceptions," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 19(4), pages 67-92, Fall.
    3. Diewert, W. Erwin & Nakamura, Alice O. & Nakamura, Leonard I., 2009. "The housing bubble and a new approach to accounting for housing in a CPI," Journal of Housing Economics, Elsevier, vol. 18(3), pages 156-171, September.
    4. Sofie R. Waltl, 2019. "Variation Across Price Segments and Locations: A Comprehensive Quantile Regression Analysis of the Sydney Housing Market," Real Estate Economics, American Real Estate and Urban Economics Association, vol. 47(3), pages 723-756, September.
    5. Katharina Knoll & Moritz Schularick & Thomas Steger, 2017. "No Price Like Home: Global House Prices, 1870-2012," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 107(2), pages 331-353, February.
    6. Jonathan Halket & Lars Nesheim & Florian Oswald, 2020. "The Housing Stock, Housing Prices, And User Costs: The Roles Of Location, Structure, And Unobserved Quality," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 61(4), pages 1777-1814, November.
    7. Edward E. Leamer, 2007. "Housing is the business cycle," Proceedings - Economic Policy Symposium - Jackson Hole, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, pages 149-233.
    8. Robert Ferber, 1967. "Determinants of Investment Behavior," NBER Books, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc, number ferb67-1, January.
    9. Dale Jorgenson, 1967. "The Theory of Investment Behavior," NBER Chapters, in: Determinants of Investment Behavior, pages 129-175, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    10. Davis, Morris A. & Heathcote, Jonathan, 2007. "The price and quantity of residential land in the United States," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 54(8), pages 2595-2620, November.
    11. Bracke, Philippe, 2013. "How long do housing cycles last? A duration analysis for 19 OECD countries," Journal of Housing Economics, Elsevier, vol. 22(3), pages 213-230.
    12. Diewert, Erwin & Nakamura, Alice O., 2009. "Accounting for Housing in a CPI," Economics working papers erwin_diewert-2009-19, Vancouver School of Economics, revised 12 Mar 2009.
    13. W. Erwin Diewert & John S. Greenlees & Charles R. Hulten, 2009. "Price Index Concepts and Measurement," NBER Books, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc, number diew08-1, January.
    14. repec:hal:spmain:info:hdl:2441/4dp533k0lq8dgrbgue1eid6mk1 is not listed on IDEAS
    15. Garner, Thesia I. & Verbrugge, Randal, 2009. "Reconciling user costs and rental equivalence: Evidence from the US consumer expenditure survey," Journal of Housing Economics, Elsevier, vol. 18(3), pages 172-192, September.
    16. Robert J. Hill & Daniel Melser, 2008. "Hedonic Imputation And The Price Index Problem: An Application To Housing," Economic Inquiry, Western Economic Association International, vol. 46(4), pages 593-609, October.
    17. Svensson, Lars E.O., 2017. "Cost-benefit analysis of leaning against the wind," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 90(C), pages 193-213.
    18. Nathalie Girouard & Mike Kennedy & Paul van den Noord & Christophe André, 2006. "Recent House Price Developments: The Role of Fundamentals," OECD Economics Department Working Papers 475, OECD Publishing.
    19. Hill, Robert J. & Syed, Iqbal A., 2016. "Hedonic price–rent ratios, user cost, and departures from equilibrium in the housing market," Regional Science and Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 56(C), pages 60-72.
    20. Alan S. Blinder, 1980. "The Consumer Price Index and the Measurement of Recent Inflation," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 11(2), pages 539-573.
    21. Waltl, Sofie R., 2018. "Estimating quantile-specific rental yields for residential housing in Sydney," Regional Science and Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 68(C), pages 204-225.
    22. James M. Poterba, 1984. "Tax Subsidies to Owner-Occupied Housing: An Asset-Market Approach," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 99(4), pages 729-752.
    23. Ryan Fox & Peter Tulip, 2014. "Is Housing Overvalued?," RBA Research Discussion Papers rdp2014-06, Reserve Bank of Australia.
    24. Robert J. Hill & Michael Scholz, 2018. "Can Geospatial Data Improve House Price Indexes? A Hedonic Imputation Approach with Splines," Review of Income and Wealth, International Association for Research in Income and Wealth, vol. 64(4), pages 737-756, December.
    25. Patrick Sabourin & Pierre Duguay, 2015. "Measuring Durable Goods and Housing Prices in the CPI: An Empirical Assessment," Bank of Canada Review, Bank of Canada, vol. 2015(Autumn), pages 24-38.
    26. Randal Verbrugge, 2008. "The Puzzling Divergence Of Rents And User Costs, 1980–2004," Review of Income and Wealth, International Association for Research in Income and Wealth, vol. 54(4), pages 671-699, December.
    27. Stiglitz, Joseph E, 1990. "Symposium on Bubbles," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 4(2), pages 13-18, Spring.
    28. Frederic S. Mishkin, 2011. "Monetary Policy Strategy: Lessons from the Crisis," NBER Working Papers 16755, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    29. Raquel Arévalo & Javier Ruiz-Castillo, 2006. "On the Imputation of Rental Prices to Owner-occupied Housing," Journal of the European Economic Association, MIT Press, vol. 4(4), pages 830-861, June.
    30. Goodhart, Charles, 2001. "What Weight Should Be Given to Asset Prices in the Measurement of Inflation?," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 111(472), pages 335-356, June.
    31. Thomas Laubach & John C. Williams, 2003. "Measuring the Natural Rate of Interest," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 85(4), pages 1063-1070, November.
    32. Stephen G. Cecchetti, 2006. "The Brave new World of Central Banking," National Institute Economic Review, National Institute of Economic and Social Research, vol. 196(1), pages 107-119, April.
    33. Roger Koenker & Ivan Mizera, 2004. "Penalized triograms: total variation regularization for bivariate smoothing," Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series B, Royal Statistical Society, vol. 66(1), pages 145-163, February.
    34. Peter Abelson & Demi Chung, 2005. "The Real Story of Housing Prices in Australia from 1970 to 2003," Australian Economic Review, The University of Melbourne, Melbourne Institute of Applied Economic and Social Research, vol. 38(3), pages 265-281, September.
    35. W. Erwin Diewert, 2009. "Durables and Owner-Occupied Housing in a Consumer Price Index," NBER Chapters, in: Price Index Concepts and Measurement, pages 445-500, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    36. Heston, Alan & Nakamura, Alice O., 2009. "Questions about the equivalence of market rents and user costs for owner occupied housing," Journal of Housing Economics, Elsevier, vol. 18(3), pages 273-279, September.
    37. Mr. Lars E. O. Svensson, 2016. "Cost-Benefit Analysis of Leaning Against the Wind: Are Costs Larger Also with Less Effective Macroprudential Policy?," IMF Working Papers 2016/003, International Monetary Fund.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. W. Erwin Diewert & Kiyohiko G. Nishimura & Chihiro Shimizu & Tsutomu Watanabe, 2020. "Measuring the Services of Durables and Owner Occupied Housing," Advances in Japanese Business and Economics, in: Property Price Index, chapter 0, pages 223-298, Springer.
    2. Allen-Coughlan, Matthew & Coffey, Cathal & Martinez-Cillero, Maria & Kostarakos, Ilias & McQuinn, Kieran & O’Toole, Conor, 2020. "Estimating the cost of Irish housing for the CPI: A rental equivalence approach," Papers WP676, Economic and Social Research Institute (ESRI).
    3. Ahrens, Achim & Beirne, Keelan & Economides, Philip & Kostarakos, Ilias & McQuinn, Kieran & O'Toole, Conor, 2020. "A review of the methodologies used in compiling owner-occupiers’ housing indices," Papers WP651, Economic and Social Research Institute (ESRI).

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Robert J. Hill & Miriam Steurer & Sofie R. Waltl, 2019. "Owner-Occupied Housing, Inflation, and Monetary Policy," Graz Economics Papers 2019-05, University of Graz, Department of Economics.
    2. Hill, Robert J. & Syed, Iqbal A., 2016. "Hedonic price–rent ratios, user cost, and departures from equilibrium in the housing market," Regional Science and Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 56(C), pages 60-72.
    3. Chen, Jie & Chen, Yu & Hill, Robert J. & Hu, Pei, 2022. "The user cost of housing and the price-rent ratio in Shanghai," Regional Science and Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 92(C).
    4. Lepinteur, Anthony & Waltl, Sofie R., 2020. "Tracking Owners' Sentiments: Subjective Home Values, Expectations and House Price Dynamics," Department of Economics Working Paper Series 299, WU Vienna University of Economics and Business.
    5. Hertrich Markus, 2019. "A Novel Housing Price Misalignment Indicator for Germany," German Economic Review, De Gruyter, vol. 20(4), pages 759-794, December.
    6. Garrido-Yserte, Rubén & Mañas-Alcón, Elena & Gallo-Rivera, Maria Teresa, 2012. "Housing and cost of living: Application to the Spanish regions," Journal of Housing Economics, Elsevier, vol. 21(3), pages 246-255.
    7. Marina Gindelsky & Jeremy G. Moulton & Scott A. Wentland, 2020. "Valuing Housing Services in the Era of Big Data: A User Cost Approach Leveraging Zillow Microdata," NBER Chapters, in: Big Data for Twenty-First-Century Economic Statistics, pages 339-370, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    8. Waltl, Sofie R., 2018. "Estimating quantile-specific rental yields for residential housing in Sydney," Regional Science and Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 68(C), pages 204-225.
    9. Philippe Bracke, 2015. "House Prices and Rents: Microevidence from a Matched Data Set in Central London," Real Estate Economics, American Real Estate and Urban Economics Association, vol. 43(2), pages 403-431, June.
    10. Goeyvaerts, Geert & Buyst, Erik, 2019. "Do market rents reflect user costs?," Journal of Housing Economics, Elsevier, vol. 44(C), pages 112-130.
    11. Ahrens, Achim & Beirne, Keelan & Economides, Philip & Kostarakos, Ilias & McQuinn, Kieran & O'Toole, Conor, 2020. "A review of the methodologies used in compiling owner-occupiers’ housing indices," Papers WP651, Economic and Social Research Institute (ESRI).
    12. Daniel Melser & Robert J. Hill, 2019. "Residential Real Estate, Risk, Return and Diversification: Some Empirical Evidence," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 59(1), pages 111-146, July.
    13. Ambrose, Brent W. & Coulson, N. Edward & Yoshida, Jiro, 2017. "Inflation Rates Are Very Different When Housing Rents Are Accurately Measured," HIT-REFINED Working Paper Series 71, Institute of Economic Research, Hitotsubashi University.
    14. Sheng Guo & William G. Hardin, 2017. "Financial and Housing Wealth, Expenditures and the Dividend to Ownership," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 54(1), pages 58-96, January.
    15. Cathal Coffey & Kieran McQuinn & Conor O'Toole, 2022. "Rental equivalence, owner‐occupied housing, and inflation measurement: Microlevel evidence from Ireland," Real Estate Economics, American Real Estate and Urban Economics Association, vol. 50(4), pages 990-1021, December.
    16. Kieran McQuinn & Teresa Monteiro & Conor O’Toole, 2021. "House Price Expectations, Labour Market Developments and the House Price to Rent Ratio: A User Cost of Capital Approach," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 62(1), pages 25-47, January.
    17. Lopez, Luis A. & Yoshida, Jiro, 2022. "Estimating housing rent depreciation for inflation adjustments," Regional Science and Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 95(C).
    18. Greg Howard & Carl Liebersohn, 2019. "What Explains U.S. House Prices? Regional Income Divergence," 2019 Meeting Papers 1054, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    19. Allen Head & Huw Lloyd‐Ellis, 2016. "Has Canadian house price growth been excessive?," Canadian Journal of Economics/Revue canadienne d'économique, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 49(4), pages 1367-1400, November.
    20. Baltagi, Badi H. & Li, Jing, 2015. "Cointegration of matched home purchases and rental price indexes — Evidence from Singapore," Regional Science and Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 55(C), pages 80-88.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Measurement of inflation; Owner occupied housing; User cost; Quantile regression; Hedonic imputation; Housing booms and busts; Inflation targeting;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C31 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Cross-Sectional Models; Spatial Models; Treatment Effect Models; Quantile Regressions; Social Interaction Models
    • C43 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods: Special Topics - - - Index Numbers and Aggregation
    • E01 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - General - - - Measurement and Data on National Income and Product Accounts and Wealth; Environmental Accounts
    • E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation
    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy
    • R31 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - Real Estate Markets, Spatial Production Analysis, and Firm Location - - - Housing Supply and Markets

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:irs:cepswp:2018-05. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: . General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/cepsslu.html .

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Library and Documentation The email address of this maintainer does not seem to be valid anymore. Please ask Library and Documentation to update the entry or send us the correct address (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/cepsslu.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service hosted by the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis . RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.