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Drivers of the European Bioeconomy in Transition (BioEconomy2030): an exploratory, model-based assessment

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Abstract

The bioeconomy comprises sectors that use renewable biological resources to produce food, materials and energy. It is at the centre of several global and EU challenges in the near future such as the creation of growth and jobs, climate change, food security and resource depletion. "Bioeconomy 2030" projects a reference scenario ('business as usual') and compares it with two distinct policy narratives ('Outward-looking' and 'Inward-looking') to understand the drivers of EU's bioeconomy up to 2030, assess its resilience to fulfil such diverse policy goals and identify potential trade-offs. As a motor of jobs and growth, the results indicate that the importance of the bio-based sectors is expected to dwindle somewhat. The factors underlying this result are mainly structural and related to comparably lower macroeconomic growth rates in the EU. It is, however, conceivable that improved economic development or productivity improvements linked to EU investments in, for instance bio-based innovation, would produce a recognisably more optimistic outlook for the EU bioeconomy.

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  • George Philippidis & Robert M’barek & Emanuele Ferrari, 2016. "Drivers of the European Bioeconomy in Transition (BioEconomy2030): an exploratory, model-based assessment," JRC Working Papers JRC98160, Joint Research Centre (Seville site).
  • Handle: RePEc:ipt:iptwpa:jrc98160
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    File URL: http://publications.jrc.ec.europa.eu/repository/handle/JRC98160
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    Cited by:

    1. Robert M'barek & Jesus Barreiro-Hurle & Pierre Boulanger & Arnaldo Caivano & Pavel Ciaian & Hasan Dudu & Maria Espinosa Goded & Thomas Fellmann & Emanuele Ferrari & Sergio Gomez Y Paloma & Celso Gorri, 2017. "Scenar 2030 - Pathways for the European agriculture and food sector beyond 2020," JRC Working Papers JRC108449, Joint Research Centre (Seville site).
    2. Claudia Parisi & Tévécia Ronzon, 2016. "A global view of bio-based industries: benchmarking and monitoring their economic importance and future developments," JRC Working Papers JRC103038, Joint Research Centre (Seville site).
    3. repec:gam:jsusta:v:9:y:2017:i:6:p:1031-:d:101517 is not listed on IDEAS
    4. repec:grm:ecoyun:201712 is not listed on IDEAS
    5. Boulanger, P. & Dudu, H. & Ferrari, E. & M'Barek, R. & Philippidis, G., 2018. "Impacts of a NoCAP Scenario on Sub-Saharan Africa," 2018 Conference, July 28-August 2, 2018, Vancouver, British Columbia 277427, International Association of Agricultural Economists.
    6. repec:gam:jsusta:v:9:y:2017:i:6:p:887-:d:99466 is not listed on IDEAS

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    Keywords

    bioeconomy; modelling; agriculture; CGE; CAP; biofuel; trade; GHG;

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