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Time Series Econometrics in a Post-acquisition Antitrust Analysis: the Brazilian Iron ore Market

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  • Eduardo P. S. Fiuza
  • Fabiana F. M. Tito

Abstract

In Brazil, mergers and acquisitions are usually analyzed by the Antitrust Authorities ex post, following a SCP framework close to the Merger Guidelines applied in the USA. However, this framework was unable to address a set of acquisitions of four mining companies by the newly privatized national champion CVRD. The present article reports an econometric exercise undertaken by the Brazilian Ministry of Justice, which came to reinforce the definition of the relevant geographic market and to test for structural breaks in the price series. Though international prices Grangercaused domestic prices in Brazil, they explain less than a third of the variance. A price surge on the acquired miners’ series was observed above the export price increase not long after the acquisitions, such that a structural break could not be rejected. No Brasil, fusões e aquisições normalmente são analisadas ex-post pelo Sistema Brasileiro de Defesa da Concorrência, seguindo um arcabouço de Estrutura-Conduta-Desempenho próximo ao aplicado nos Estados Unidos. Entretanto, esse arcabouço não era suficiente para tratar da série de quatro aquisições de mineradoras pela recémprivatizada Companhia Vale do Rio Doce (CVRD), considerada uma “campeã nacional”. Este artigo relata um exercício econométrico desenvolvido na Secretaria de Direito Econômico (SDE) do Ministério da Justiça que veio reforçar a definição de mercado relevante geográfico e testar quebras estruturais nas séries de preços. Apesar de que os preços internacionais causaram (no sentido de Granger) preços domésticos no Brasil, eles explicam menos de 1/3 da variância. Foi observado um repique nas séries de preços das mineradoras adquiridas acima da variação do preço de exportação, pouco depois das aquisições, quando então não foi rejeitada uma quebra estrutural.

Suggested Citation

  • Eduardo P. S. Fiuza & Fabiana F. M. Tito, 2015. "Time Series Econometrics in a Post-acquisition Antitrust Analysis: the Brazilian Iron ore Market," Discussion Papers 0182, Instituto de Pesquisa Econômica Aplicada - IPEA.
    • Handle: RePEc:ipe:ipetds:0182
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    References listed on IDEAS

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