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¿Es Efectiva la Política Fiscal? Evidencia para una Economía Emergente

  • Rodrigo Cerda

    ()

    (Instituto de Economía. Pontificia Universidad Católica de Chile.)

  • Hermann González
  • Luis Felipe Lagos

    ()

    (Instituto de Economía. Pontificia Universidad Católica de Chile.)

Este trabajo evalúa los impactos de la política fiscal sobre la evolución de la actividad económica (PIB) en Chile. Los resultados del análisis dinámico con la metodología de VAR estructural indican efectos no keynesianos de la política fiscal. Un aumento (reducción) en el gasto fiscal puede tener efectos recesivos (expansivos) si se asocia con mayores (menores) impuestos futuros; un aumento (disminución) de impuestos puede ser expansivo (recesivo) si permite anticipar menores (mayores) impuestos de manera permanente en el futuro. Los resultados empíricos indican que un aumento del gasto fiscal tiene efectos negativos sobre el PIB en el corto plazo, que se deshacen después de 24 trimestres. El aumento de impuestos tiene inicialmente un efecto positivo sobre el producto para generar posteriormente un efecto negativo sobre este. La dinámica, en este último caso, está relacionada inicialmente con un superávit fiscal que se revierte, produciéndose un déficit fiscal después de 12 trimestres. La expansión del PIB coincide con el superávit fiscal, mientras que la caída en el PIB coincide con el déficit fiscal.

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Paper provided by Instituto de Economia. Pontificia Universidad Católica de Chile. in its series Documentos de Trabajo with number 249.

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Date of creation: 2003
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Publication status: Published as "Efectos Dinámicos de la Política Fiscal", Cuadernos de Economía, Vol. 42, Nº 125, pp. 63-77, 2005.
Handle: RePEc:ioe:doctra:249
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  1. Bertola, G. & Drazen, A., 1991. "Trigger Pointsand Budget Cuts ; Explaining the Effects of Fiscal Austerity," Papers 26-91, Tel Aviv.
  2. Roberto Perotti, 2002. "Estimating the effects of fiscal policy in OECD countries," Economics Working Papers 015, European Network of Economic Policy Research Institutes.
  3. Perotti, Roberto, 2002. "Estimating the effects of fiscal policy in OECD countries," Working Paper Series 0168, European Central Bank.
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