IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/imk/wpaper/01-2007.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Reconsidering the Investment-Profit Nexus in Finance-Led Economies: an ARDL-Based Approach

Author

Listed:
  • Till van Treeck

    (IMK at the Hans Boeckler Foundation)

Abstract

A simple Post Keynesian growth model is developed, in which financial variables are explicitly taken into account. Different possible accumulation regimes are derived with respect to changes of these variables. Several variants of an investment function are estimated econometrically. The ARDL-based approach proposed by Pesaran et al. (2001) is argued to be superior for this purpose to the traditional cointegration approach. The econometric results are discussed with respect to a remarkable phenomenon that can be observed for some important OECD countries since the early 1980s: accumulation has generally been declining while profit rates have shown a tendency to rise. The author concentrates on one potential explanation of this phenomenon which is particularly relevant for the USA and relies on the hypothesis of a high propensity to consume out of capital income. The paper also gives an alternative explanation of the so-called "New Economy boom" in the USA at the end of the 1990s.

Suggested Citation

  • Till van Treeck, 2007. "Reconsidering the Investment-Profit Nexus in Finance-Led Economies: an ARDL-Based Approach," IMK Working Paper 01-2007, IMK at the Hans Boeckler Foundation, Macroeconomic Policy Institute.
    • Handle: RePEc:imk:wpaper:01-2007
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.boeckler.de/pdf/p_imk_wp_01_2007.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Eckhard Hein, 2007. "Interest Rate, Debt, Distribution And Capital Accumulation In A Post‐Kaleckian Model," Metroeconomica, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 58(2), pages 310-339, May.
    2. John Y. Campbell & Pierre Perron, 1991. "Pitfalls and Opportunities: What Macroeconomists Should Know about Unit Roots," NBER Chapters, in: NBER Macroeconomics Annual 1991, Volume 6, pages 141-220, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    3. Laurent Cordonnier, 2006. "Le profit sans l'accumulation : la recette du capitalisme gouverné par la finance," Post-Print halshs-00420055, HAL.
    4. Joan Robinson, 1962. "Essays in the Theory of Economic Growth," Palgrave Macmillan Books, Palgrave Macmillan, number 978-1-349-00626-7, March.
    5. M. Hashem Pesaran & Yongcheol Shin & Richard J. Smith, 2001. "Bounds testing approaches to the analysis of level relationships," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 16(3), pages 289-326.
    6. Engelbert Stockhammer, 2004. "Financialisation and the slowdown of accumulation," Cambridge Journal of Economics, Cambridge Political Economy Society, vol. 28(5), pages 719-741, September.
    7. Eckhard Hein, 2006. "Interest, Debt and Capital Accumulation—A Kaleckian Approach," International Review of Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 20(3), pages 337-352.
    8. Engle, Robert & Granger, Clive, 2015. "Co-integration and error correction: Representation, estimation, and testing," Applied Econometrics, Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA), vol. 39(3), pages 106-135.
    9. Eckhard Hein & Carsten Ochsen, 2003. "Regimes of Interest Rates, Income Shares, Savings and Investment: A Kaleckian Model and Empirical Estimations for some Advanced OECD Economies," Metroeconomica, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 54(4), pages 404-433, November.
    10. Amit Bhaduri & Kazimierz Laski & Martin Riese, 2006. "A Model Of Interaction Between The Virtual And The Real Economy," Metroeconomica, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 57(3), pages 412-427, July.
    11. Johansen, Soren, 1988. "Statistical analysis of cointegration vectors," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 12(2-3), pages 231-254.
    12. Graham, John R. & Harvey, Campbell R. & Rajgopal, Shiva, 2005. "The economic implications of corporate financial reporting," Journal of Accounting and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 40(1-3), pages 3-73, December.
    13. Henry G. Manne, 1965. "Mergers and the Market for Corporate Control," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 73(2), pages 110-110.
    14. Jensen, Michael C. & Meckling, William H., 1976. "Theory of the firm: Managerial behavior, agency costs and ownership structure," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 3(4), pages 305-360, October.
    15. Bhaduri, Amit & Marglin, Stephen, 1990. "Unemployment and the Real Wage: The Economic Basis for Contesting Political Ideologies," Cambridge Journal of Economics, Cambridge Political Economy Society, vol. 14(4), pages 375-393, December.
    16. Taylor, Lance, 1985. "A Stagnationist Model of Economic Growth," Cambridge Journal of Economics, Cambridge Political Economy Society, vol. 9(4), pages 383-403, December.
    17. Johansen, Soren, 1995. "Likelihood-Based Inference in Cointegrated Vector Autoregressive Models," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, number 9780198774501.
    18. Dutt, Amitava Krishna, 1984. "Stagnation, Income Distribution and Monopoly Power," Cambridge Journal of Economics, Cambridge Political Economy Society, vol. 8(1), pages 25-40, March.
    19. Pagan, Adrian R & Wickens, M R, 1989. "A Survey of Some Recent Econometric Methods," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 99(398), pages 962-1025, December.
    20. Henry G. Manne, 1965. "Mergers and the Market for Corporate Control," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 73(4), pages 351-351.
    21. Laurent Cordonnier, 2006. "Le profit sans l'accumulation : la recette du capitalisme gouverné par la finance," Innovations, De Boeck Université, vol. 23(1), pages 79-108.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Eckhard Hein, 2012. "The Macroeconomics of Finance-Dominated Capitalism – and its Crisis," Books, Edward Elgar Publishing, number 14931.
    2. Hein, Eckhard, 2011. "Distribution, ‘Financialisation’ and the Financial and Economic Crisis – Implications for Post-crisis Economic Policies," MPRA Paper 31180, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    3. Eckhard Hein, 2012. ""Financialization," distribution, capital accumulation, and productivity growth in a post-Kaleckian model," Journal of Post Keynesian Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 34(3), pages 475-496.
    4. Parui, Pintu, 2021. "Financialization and endogenous technological change: A post-Kaleckian perspective," Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, Elsevier, vol. 58(C), pages 221-244.
    5. Till van Treeck, 2008. "The political economy debate on ‘financialisation’ – a macroeconomic perspective," IMK Working Paper 01-2008, IMK at the Hans Boeckler Foundation, Macroeconomic Policy Institute.
    6. Eckhard Hein, 2017. "Post-Keynesian macroeconomics since the mid 1990s: main developments," European Journal of Economics and Economic Policies: Intervention, Edward Elgar Publishing, vol. 14(2), pages 131-172, September.
    7. Christian Schoder, 2012. "Effective demand, exogenous normal utilization and endogenous capacity in the long run. Evidence from a CVAR analysis for the US," IMK Working Paper 103-2012, IMK at the Hans Boeckler Foundation, Macroeconomic Policy Institute.
    8. Eckhard Hein & Christian Schoder, 2011. "Interest rates, distribution and capital accumulation -- A post-Kaleckian perspective on the US and Germany," International Review of Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 25(6), pages 693-723, November.
    9. Eckhard Hein, 2010. "Shareholder Value Orientation, Distribution And Growth—Short‐ And Medium‐Run Effects In A Kaleckian Model," Metroeconomica, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 61(2), pages 302-332, May.
    10. Eckhard Hein, 2006. "Interest, Debt and Capital Accumulation—A Kaleckian Approach," International Review of Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 20(3), pages 337-352.
    11. Pintu Parui, 2022. "Corporate debt, endogenous dividend rate, instability and growth," Metroeconomica, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 73(2), pages 514-549, May.
    12. Christian Schoder, 2014. "Effective Demand, Exogenous Normal Utilization and Endogenous Capacity in the Long Run: Evidence from a Cointegrated Vector Autoregression Analysis for the USA," Metroeconomica, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 65(2), pages 298-320, May.
    13. Eckhard Hein, 2009. "A (Post-) Keynesian perspective on "financialisation"," IMK Studies 01-2009, IMK at the Hans Boeckler Foundation, Macroeconomic Policy Institute.
    14. Schoder, Christian, 2014. "Instability, stationary utilization and effective demand: A structuralist model of endogenous cycles," Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, Elsevier, vol. 30(C), pages 10-29.
    15. Hein, Eckhard, & Mundt, Matthias., 2012. "Financialisation and the requirements and potentials for wage-led recovery : a review focussing on the G20," ILO Working Papers 994709323402676, International Labour Organization.
    16. Eckhard Hein, 2007. "Interest Rate, Debt, Distribution And Capital Accumulation In A Post‐Kaleckian Model," Metroeconomica, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 58(2), pages 310-339, May.
    17. Soon Ryoo & Peter Skott, 2008. "Financialization in Kaleckian Economies with and without Labor Constraints," European Journal of Economics and Economic Policies: Intervention, Edward Elgar Publishing, vol. 5(2), pages 357-386.
    18. Hein, Eckhard, 2010. "The rate of interest as a macroeconomic distribution parameter: Horizontalism and Post-Keynesian models of distribution of growth," MPRA Paper 23372, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    19. Georgios Argitis & Stella Michopoulou, 2011. "Are Full Employment and Social Cohesion Possible Under Financialization?," Forum for Social Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 40(2), pages 139-155, January.
    20. Eckhard Hein, 2009. "‘Financialisation’ in a comparative static, stock-flow consistent post-kaleckian distribution and growth model," EKONOMIAZ. Revista vasca de Economía, Gobierno Vasco / Eusko Jaurlaritza / Basque Government, vol. 72(03), pages 120-139.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Investment; Profitability; Financialisation; Time Series Econometrics.;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes
    • D14 - Microeconomics - - Household Behavior - - - Household Saving; Personal Finance
    • E22 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Investment; Capital; Intangible Capital; Capacity
    • E25 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Aggregate Factor Income Distribution
    • G3 - Financial Economics - - Corporate Finance and Governance

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:imk:wpaper:01-2007. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Sabine Nemitz (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/imkhbde.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.